Inter can feel the Champions League final in their future as two early goals saw them defeat their rivals Milan at the San Siro in the semifinal first leg on Tuesday. Eden Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan were able to score early and in only 12 minutes the visitors were up two and fully able to control the remaining time. Without the injured Rafael Leao, Milan lacked an attacking threat and took only 13 shots for a total of 1.06 expected goals. Inter took advantage of the situation to move into a good position ahead of leg two. Milan manager Stefano Pioli will also have further worries as Ismael Bennacer left the match only 18 minutes in after picking up a knock. Milan will need everything that they can get to pull off a comeback.
Inter has now run their unbeaten streak to six consecutive games but more importantly, for the second leg, they've only allowed one goal in those six matches. On the bright side, Milan are expecting to have Rafael Leao back for that leg which could change the tie. Down two goals, this is a winnable match but it'll take quite an output from Leao.
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What was missing
Calling Leao a big part of Milan's attack or even critical to it is probably underselling his importance to the team as Leao is Milan. Scoring 12 Serie A goals and assisting seven more, he has been critical to the team by creating chances and taking his own. His absence showed in the game as Milan struggled to put their chances away and create enough danger early on.
Inter allowed Milan to take shots but only putting two of 13 chances on target isn't good enough. If Leao can return for the second leg, that'll give the team a boost because all he needs is two chances to score two goals. Providing something for Inter to think about in defense, they can be prone to making mistakes and all it takes is a first-half goal to break things open in the second leg.
Milan will have to defend better but that's an area that they improved in as the match went on.
How can Inter set up?
If a 2-0 halftime lead is supposed to be one of the most dangerous leads in sports, what does that make a 2-0 aggregate lead? Inter are in a weird spot where they can play conservatively in the second leg but they'll have to attack. If Leao makes the match, Milan will be much more dangerous, especially if Inter end up sitting back in defense. By doing that, it invites pressure and between Leao, Theo Hernandez and Sandro Tonali, Milan can score when they want to.
Even when they've been dropping points recently, the issues have been defensive ones, not issues with the attack. It could make sense for Marcelo Brozovic to come into the lineup as a more defensive option to slow Milan down but with how Inter have attacked as of late, they should keep doing it. Changing what you do well can create more issues than it resolves especially in a derby match when the teams will be playing each other for the fourth time this season. They know each other's strengths and weaknesses so no need to overcomplicate things.
Inter are in control, and Milan need a performance of a lifetime.