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Eric Cohen

EC

MLB
CHW @ CLE • Mon 5:00pm

G. Williams

Under 15.5

-140

Outs Recorded

Picked: Oct 4 @ 8:46pm

Analysis

In four starts against the White Sox this season, Gavin Williams went under this line in three of them. Not to mention, with the day off between Games 1 and 2, the Guardians have a rested bullpen and will relieve the American League strikeout leader if he runs into any early trouble. It's not a good formula for Williams pitching into the 6th inning of Game 2. In a must win game for Cleveland, I think their ace throws five solid innings and doesn't come out for the 6th.

Matchup
Prop Bet Guy

#2

+2350

(60%)

134-91 in Last 225 MLB Player Props Picks

MLB
CHW @ CLE • Mon 5:00pm

G. Williams

Under 15.5

-140

Outs Recorded

Picked: Oct 5 @ 12:01am

Analysis

DraftKings. Another easy pull on an under for an outs prop on a Guardians pitcher. Gavin Williams has tremendous stuff, but that works against him in terms of his pitch efficiency. The righty needed 4.14 pitches per plate appearance this season, the fourth highest mark out of 107 qualified pitchers. The White Sox own the sixth lowest chase rate as a team, and have seen Williams four times this season (keeping him under this line three times). It’s a must win game for Cleveland, and they will go to their bullpen quickly.

Matchup
Angelo Magliocca

Amags

MLB
CHW @ CLE • Mon 5:00pm

Chi. White Sox

Over 2.5

-130

Runs

Picked: Oct 5 @ 10:00am

Analysis

The White Sox scored at least three runs in each postseason game thus far, winning each and slated as another underdog tonight. The weather will favor pitchers in Cleveland tonight unfortunately, and the two high-scoring games they had were in Houston, so the 2.5 total isn't crazy but I still think it's too low. Having faced Gavin Williams four times already, Chicago scored two or more runs in all four matchups and bounced him before reaching the sixth inning in three starts. The Cleveland bullpen isn't what I want to attack, so the first seven team total over 1.5 runs (-140) is a bet I've already made. Chicago projects at 3.75 runs, with multiple sources including our Sportsline model projecting even higher (4.4 runs).

Matchup
Angelo Magliocca

+337

(56%)

31-24 in Last 55 MLB Player Props Picks

MLB
CHW @ CLE • Mon 5:00pm

G. Williams

Under 15.5

-139

Outs Recorded

Picked: Oct 5 @ 10:15am

Analysis

If Gavin Williams is good tonight, he can easily top this line, but to pitch into the sixth inning you have to avoid trouble on the bases. It seems like Williams always has a breakdown inning somewhere, even in his great starts, where he has to wiggle out of trouble. The thinking in the postseason and with this bet is if that happens again, Stephen Vogt will look to his formidable bullpen to stop the bleeding over allowing Williams to continue digging himself a hole. The White Sox will see the Guardians starter for the 5th time this year, holding him inside of this line in three starts, as he gave up two or more runs in all four.

Matchup
Adam Thompson

#3

+2144

(68%)

50-23 in Last 73 MLB Picks

MLB
CHW @ CLE • Mon 5:00pm

CLE

-149

Money Line

Picked: Oct 5 @ 10:18am

Analysis

The Guardians were blanked in Game 1, but there's reason to believe in a bounceback effort here. Sox starter Anthony Kay owns a 6.46 ERA over his last seven starts, and Cleveland has an OPS north of .800 vs. left-handers since mid-September. Cleveland starter Gavin Williams allowed two runs in three of four outings vs. the Sox, and three in the third. He'll go 4-5 frames before giving way to a strong bullpen. Winds blowing straight in hurts the Sox, who scored 44.5% of their runs all year on homers.

Matchup