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  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    #1
    +1976
    (62%)
    54-33 in Last 87 MLB Picks
    BAL
    -135
    Money Line
    Picked: Aug 30 @ 7:27pm

    Analysis

    Don't look now, but the Orioles are only one game out of the American League's final playoff spot despite being one game under .500. Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine games, including a weekend sweep of the Athletics in Sacramento. Now they face the National League's worst team in Colorado and starter Tanner Gordon. In 43.1 innings at Coors Field, the right hander has posted a 7.89 ERA and has surrendered 14 of his 17 home runs allowed. Kyle Bradish hasn't pitched overly well for Baltimore of late but I trust him more than Gordon. I'll lay the juice with the Orioles on Monday night.
  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    West Coast Wiseguy
    Baltimore
    Over 5.5
    -130
    Runs
    Picked: Aug 31 @ 12:03am

    Analysis

    Tanner Gordon is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (8th percentile in ground-ball rate) and allows a high rate of barrels (15th percentile). At Coors Field, where he holds a 7.89 ERA, high-contact fly-ball pitchers suffer the largest run penalties in MLB. With low velocity (92.7 mph) and limited swing-and-miss ability, the Orioles should score early and often. Gordon has completed 6 or more innings in only two starts all season, so Baltimore should face Colorado’s bullpen for at least four innings. Colorado’s relievers were stretched in a 10-inning game in Atlanta yesterday, depleting their high-leverage arms for Monday's homestand opener. Colorado's bullpen ranks 29th in second-half SIERA (4.78), and the staff holds an ERA of 4.77. My model has Baltimore scoring 6.4 runs in 9 innings.
  • expert headshot
    Gene Menez
    DE-GENE-RATE
    TOLEDO +10.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Aug 18 @ 3:20pm

    Analysis

    New Spartans coach Pat Fitzgerald performed miracles at Northwestern, but that seems like ages ago. In his last four seasons in Evanston, he went 14-31, including a 4-20 mark over his last two years. He also hasn't coached since 2022 when the landscape of college football was much different. And, unlike other coaches in the first year at a school, Fitzgerald did not have the benefit of a previous school from which to mine transfer talent. Though Toledo will be under a new coach also, Mike Jacobs brings several players from Mercer after taking the Bears to the FCS playoffs the last two seasons. Those include FCS defensive player of the year Andrew Zock. I don't hate a money line sprinkle on Toledo either.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    EC
    Over 51.5
    -110
    Over/Under
    Picked: Aug 30 @ 8:36pm

    Analysis

    I'm playing the early-season Trojans Over trend once again. Including the Week Zero 42-26 win over San Jose State, Lincoln Riley has coached eight games at home against non-conference opponents in August / September. In those games, the average score has been USC 57, Opponents 17. USC has never scored less than 42 points in any of those contests. I was less than impressed with the Trojans' defense on Saturday, while their offense was crisp and in midseason form led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. Expect points galore once again in the L.A. Coliseum on Friday night. USC 44, Fresno State 21.
  • expert headshot
    Thomas Casale
    Casale on Campus
    NEB -23.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Jul 30 @ 11:29pm

    Analysis

    I love Nebraska in this spot. Ohio has a new head coach and a completely retooled roster. They should be a good fade candidate early in the year. This looks like Matt Rhule's most talented roster in Lincoln, and I think Anthony Colandrea is an upgrade at quarterback over the inconsistent Dylan Raiola. The Bobcats have a new quarterback and five new offensive linemen. Look for Nebraska's defense to dominate in a 45-10 kind of win at home. I'm playing this one early because I expect it to close around -25.5.

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