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  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    Doug
    player headshot
    T. Bibee
    Under 17.5
    -115
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Apr 17 @ 4:54pm

    Analysis

    DraftKings. On the heels of Parker Messick’s electric performance last night, which effectively reset the Guardians bullpen, this is a big line for Tanner Bibee tonight. The righty is under in all four starts, and is coming off a start where he was hung out to dry, allowing eight runs against the Braves. Bibee traditionally struggles with his pitch count (29th percentile amongst qualifiers this year - 36th last season), and the third time through the order (opponents are 6/10 this season, .800 OPS last year), there is little reason to push him in the later innings. And today’s Orioles lineup features six hitters who see above average pitches per plate appearance.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    +98
    (67%)
    4-2 in Last 6 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    T. Bibee
    Under 17.5
    -115
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Apr 17 @ 5:53pm

    Analysis

    Tanner Bibee has completed five innings just once in four trips to the mound, and has yet to pitch into the 6th inning let alone finish it. He'll be facing a lineup of predominantly regulars for the Orioles tonight and the updated projection has him reaching around 16 outs. At 17.5 for this price on the under, there's value in fading the full six innings. Baltimore's lineup also features six left handed batters, against which Bibee has struggled thus far, allowing 11 hits, four home runs and six walks across just 11.1 innings. The caveat is the weather is colder and likely to help pitchers, but at this price there is still a good bit of value so we'll play it.
  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    West Coast Wiseguy
    Over 8
    -110
    Over/Under
    Picked: Apr 16 @ 10:23pm

    Analysis

    Zack Littell has shown significant statistical vulnerability; although he sports a 4.20 ERA, his alarming 7.16 FIP—driven by surrendering five home runs in just 15 innings—is a major concern. He’s up against a Nationals lineup that’s second in MLB with 5.6 runs per game and suffers from the league’s worst bullpen ERA. This combination helps explain why Washington is 13-6 to the Over. Logan Webb, meanwhile, has historically struggled away from Oracle Park, posting a career road ERA (3.98) more than a full run above his home mark (2.90). Weather conditions at first pitch—79°F and 38% humidity—will lower air density and enhance ball carry. Coupled with a park factor that boosts slugging by 34%, I anticipate at least eight runs scored here on Friday night.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    +64
    (50%)
    5-5 in Last 10 MLB Picks
    CHC -1.5
    +132
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Apr 16 @ 10:39pm

    Analysis

    It'll be interesting to see how the Cubs and Mets respond to winds blowing out to left field at 15 mph at Wrigley Field with temperatures at 69°. For the Mets, they've lost eight in a row, where they've scored two runs or fewer in seven of the games. For the Cubs, they just got their hitting on track, scoring 35 runs in their last four games and winning the last two at Philadelphia by scoring in double digits. Edward Cabrera is making his fourth start for the Cubs, and he's only allowed three runs between his first three starts. Kodai Senga allowed seven runs in 2.1 innings during his last start. I'm going with the team that has found its rhythm. Cubs win.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +830
    (74%)
    26-9 in Last 35 MLB ML Picks
    CHC
    -133
    Money Line
    WIN
    Picked: Apr 16 @ 11:08pm

    Analysis

    I pretty much bet Cubs matinee Friday games on principle as I grew up on Cubbies matinees on WGN (we all know the one show that preceded every day -- partly why I first wanted to be astronaut and loved Artemis mission). Major love to Harry Caray as he could just get hammered on the air. And it was honestly entertaining. Andres Galarrrraagsmaggggaa was perhaps my fave. The Cubs are meh, but Mets much worse and pitching-wise this seems off. NY's Kodai Senga (7.07 ERA) has been terrible and Chicago's Edward Cabrera (1.62 ERA) quite good. This is a 100% New York too-low price. You think I biased? New Yorkers can't not bet their teams even when bad. Spike Lee Syndrome.

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