Paris Saint-Germain pulled off a huge road victory in the first leg, but it won't take anything for granted when it hosts Barcelona on Wednesday in the Round of 16 in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League. PSG crushed Barcelona 4-1 at Camp Nou in the first game, but the 2020 finalists know Lionel Messi is on the other side. He helped the Catalans pull off a historic comeback against PSG at this stage in the 2017 tournament, so Kylian Mbappe and Co. won't sit back and wait to advance.
Kickoff is set for 3 p.m ET at Parc de Princes. PSG is a 0.5-goal and +150 money-line favorite in the latest Barcelona vs. PSG odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total goals scored is 3.5. Before you make any PSG vs. Barcelona picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.
Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up more than $8,900.
Now, the model has set its sights on PSG vs. Barcelona. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several odds and trends for Barcelona vs. PSG:
- Barcelona vs. Paris Saint-Germain spread: PSG -0.5
- Barcelona vs. Paris Saint-Germain over-under: 3.5 goals
- Barcelona vs. Paris Saint-Germain money line: Barcelona +160, PSG +150, Draw +270
- BAR: F Lionel Messi has four goals and three assists in his last five games.
- PSG: F Kylian Mbappe and Moise Kean have combined for 10 goals in the last four games.
Why you should back Paris Saint-Germain
Mbappe had a hat trick in the first-leg rout, and the powerful striker will be facing an inexperienced defense that is missing leader Gerard Pique. The Paris native has five goals in the Champions League and leads Ligue 1 with 19. He also can set up his teammates, putting up nine total assists. Midfielder Angel Di Maria is the main playmaker, leading Ligue 1 with eight assists, and he also sets up Moise Kean, who has 11 league goals and three in the UCL.
Barcelona's defense is banged up, and it will also be under pressure as the Spanish side pushes forward in a desperate search for goals. That could expose them to a PSG offense that has produced a league-high 62 goals and has outscored its last three opponents 8-0. Goalkeeper Keylor Navas has 13 clean sheets in 20 matches in league play, and PSG has allowed just seven goals in its seven UCL matches, so Barcelona faces a very tall order to advance.
Why you should back Barcelona
The Spanish side has been here before, against this same team. Barcelona entered the second leg of their 2017 Round of 16 matchup down 4-0, and it went out and shocked PSG with a 6-1 victory to advance. The Catalans have been in stellar form outside that loss in the first leg, going unbeaten in La Liga since Dec. 5. They have won 13 of their last 16 league games, outscoring opponents 37-11, and they had a 16-5 edge in scoring in this competition before the setback to PSG.
Barcelona leads the Champions League in both attempts (122) and shots on target (52). Messi is as dangerous as they come, and he has four goals in the competition and leads with 17 attempts on goal. He leads La Liga with 19 goals, and he is one of 10 Barca players with multiple goals in league play. Ousmane Dembele, Martin Braithwaite and Antoine Griezmann have combined for eight goals in the UCL and can make PSG pay for focusing on Messi.
How to make Champions League picks for Barcelona vs. PSG
The model is leaning under on the total, and it has also locked in a strong money line pick for PSG vs. Barcelona. You absolutely need to see it before you lock in your own Champions League picks.
So who wins PSG vs. Barcelona? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Barcelona vs. PSG money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up more than $8,900, and find out.