Two of the NFL's most creative offensive minds and strong-armed quarterbacks will face off in Southern California when the 2-2 Green Bay Packers face off against the 1-3 Los Angeles Rams.
Green Bay head coach and offensive play-caller Matt LaFleur and Los Angeles head coach and offensive play-caller Sean McVay both descend from the Shanahan tree, both working as assistants under Mike Shanahan on his Washington coaching staff from 2010-2013. LaFleur also served as McVay's offensive coordinator in the latter's first season as the Rams head coach in 2017.
Where to watch
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 6 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calfiornia)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
- Odds: Packers -3, O/U 48.5 (SportsLine consensus)
Both maximize their schemes to make life easier for their starting quarterbacks in the Packers' Jordan Love and the Rams' Matthew Stafford. McVay's Rams (77.8%) and LaFleur's Packers (76.4%) utilize motion at the two highest rates in the entire NFL. That's a big deal.
"The more speed that happens pre-snap on the offensive side of the ball, the more stress it puts on a defense," retired five-time first-team All-Pro linebacker and 2013 NFL NFL Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly said on the "Move The Sticks" podcast on Wednesday. ... "It [motion] makes playing the run game really hard because you can't get downhill. All your movement as a [line]backer is lateral. Stress on the defense is caused by pre-snap motion and the speed at which they [offenses] do it."
Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed, who leads the NFL in yards per target (15.3) and yards per carry (15.2, minimum five carries) this season, has been sent in motion by LaFleur on an NFL-high 62 plays, according to Pro Football Focus. Reed has nine touches for 100 yards and two touchdown, tied for the most in the NFL, after receiving the football after going in motion, including a 33-yard rushing touchdown in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's no coincidence that Love has a perfect passer rating (158.3) when targeting Reed in 2024, completing 11 of 14 passes for 277 yards and two touchdowns.
With Love missing two of Green Bay's games this season, LaFleur turned the Packers into a ground-and-pound team as they are averaging 174.5 rushing yards per game, the second-best in the NFL, after ranking 15th in the league last season (112.1 rushing yards per game. Los Angeles spent their first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft on replacements for three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald in edge rusher Jared Verse (first round) and interior defensive lineman Braden Fiske, (second round) and they have been consistent generating pressure. Verse's 23.3% quarterback pressure rate is the second-highest in the NFL, minimum 50 pass rushes, behind only Aidan Hutchinson (25.3%).
However, Love may pick apart Los Angeles' defense because while they are fifth in quarterback pressure rate (39%), it isn't getting home to the quarterback quickly enough. They only have seven sacks, tied for 26th in the league and are tied for 29th in average time to pressure (2.7 seconds), 30th in average time to throw allowed (3.1) and 22nd in sack rate (6.4%), per PFF. The Rams are also the second-worst scoring defense in football (28.8 points per game allowed) and the second-worst total defense (385.3 total yards per game allowed) in the entire league.
On the flip side, Green Bay's defense under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has been creating havoc. They lead the league with 12 takeaways and rank tied for eighth in sacks (13.0). That takeaways metric is powered by safety Xavier McKinney, whom the Packers signed in free agency this offseason, as he leads the NFL with four interceptions, one in each game. If he intercepts Stafford on Sunday afternoon, McKinney will be the first player since the AFL/NFL merger with an interception in each of his first five games with a team.
Given the Rams' laundry list of injuries, Sunday could be a long day for the home team.
Notable Rams Injuries
- WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) No IR
- WR Puka Nacua (knee) IR
- TE Tyler Higbee (knee) PUP
- OT Joe Noteboom (ankle) IR
- OT KT Leveston (ankle) IR
- OT Conor McDermott (undisclosed) IR
- OG Steve Avila (knee) IR
- OG Jonah Jackson (shoulder) IR
- DL Larrell Murchison (arm) IR
- CB Darious Williams (hamstring) IR
- CB Derion Kendrick (knee) IR
- S John Johnson III (shoulder) IR
Prediction
The Rams are a well-coached team, but so are the Packers, who have a lot more weapons and better defense at their disposal. Pick: Packers 31, Rams 17
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