I did it. I made it over .500 for the season picking NFL games against the spread. Let's celebrate.
It's been a heck of a climb, one that has taken a few weeks. But after going 8-6 last week, I am now at 80-78-6 for the season. Let's go. I went 10-4 straight up last week to improve that mark to 99-65 for the season.
This week we have all 32 teams playing, which means a tougher challenge than in recent weeks.
Even so, I like the card. It is Thanksgiving Week, and I have a lot to be thankful for, but next week you will be thanking me.
Here's to an 11-5 week ATS and 12-4 week straight up.
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a big game in the division for both teams, a survival test for Green Bay and a big one for the Lions if they want to try and get home-field advantage in the conference. The Lions have had defensive issues as of late and Jordan Love has played well the past two weeks. That will keep the Packers in this game, but the Lions win it.
Pick: Lions 31, Packers 27 (Result: Packers 29, Lions 22)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Commanders are coming off a dud last week against the Giants, while Dallas is flying high. The Cowboys are playing as well as any team in the league. Washington's offensive line is an issue, which will lead to the Cowboys having a field day with their defensive front. Dak Prescott plays well again. Cowboys roll.
Pick: Cowboys 32, Commanders 16 (Result: Cowboys 45-10)
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
This is a huge division game for two teams that have had a good rivalry over the past decade. The Seahawks are coming off a bad loss to the Rams, while the 49ers are coming off two dominant victories. Geno Smith is banged up, so his health is key. The 49ers have the look of a Super team again. They show it here.
Pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 19 (Result: 49ers 31-13)
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+10)
Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
This Friday game the day after Thanksgiving isn't what it was expected to be with the Jets being an offensive disaster. The Jets defense is coming off a bad showing against Buffalo, and will be challenged here by the Dolphins. Tim Boyle will start at quarterback for the Jets, but will it matter? Even so, I think the Jets keep it close with their defense.
Pick: Dolphins 21, Jets 16 (Result: Dolphins 34-13)
New Orleans Saints (PK) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a big game in a division with one team with a .500 record, that being the Saints. Both teams are coming off a bye, but the Saints have some injury issues. The quarterback situation isn't great for the Falcons, which is why I think the Saints will win it behind their defense.
Pick: Saints 24, Falcons 20
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals without Joe Burrow will be a different team. Jake Browning starts, but we have no real idea what he can do. The Steelers defense is good. We know that. The Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada this week to hopefully liven up the offense. Kenny Pickett needs to play better now. He will here as the Steelers take it.
Pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is for first place in the division, with the Texans owning the Jaguars in recent years, winning 10 of 11 and blowing them out earlier this year. But the Jaguars got back on track last week and Trevor Lawrence played well. That will continue here as the Jaguars take command of the division.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Texans 23
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 12.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bucs are playing a second straight road game, while the Colts are coming off a bye. That's a big edge for the Colts. Even so, I think the Bucs have the better team and Baker Mayfield will play well in this one. Gardner Minshew will not. Bucs win it, although they are banged up some on defense.
Pick: Bucs 30, Colts 21
New England Patriots (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
These are two of the bottom teams in the league, both with quarterback issues. Tommy DeVito did play well for the Giants last week, but Bill Belichick has had great success against rookie quarterbacks. The Patriots quarterback situation isn't good either, but I think the Patriots will find a way to win this one.
Pick: Patriots 21, Giants 17
Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is the dog game of the week, featuring two rookie passers who are struggling behind bad lines. Bryce Young and Will Levis have been brutalized at times. What's to think that will change here? The Titans defense is better, so they get the best of it in what should be an ugly game.
Pick: Titans 23, Panthers 12
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (PK)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Rams are coming off a comeback victory over the Seahawks, while the Cardinals lost a tough one to the Texans last week. Kyler Murray has played well in his two starts, which I think will continue here. The Cardinals will slow down Matt Stafford and gang to win it.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 23
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is suddenly a big game for both teams. The Broncos have won four straight, while the Browns are 7-3 and would be in the playoffs right now. This will be the first road start for Browns rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, which won't be easy. But the Cleveland defense is dominant. They will shut down the Denver offense in a low-scoring game to win it.
Pick: Browns 20, Broncos 12
Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs are coming off a tough Monday night loss and now must travel on a short week. The Raiders have looked so much better the past three games, but this is a tough test against a wounded Super Bowl champ. The Chiefs get back on track here.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 17
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Eagles are playing on a short week after a road victory over the Chiefs on Monday night. The Bills are coming off an impressive victory over the Jets. Josh Allen looked good in that game, and he will in this one. He keeps it close, but the Eagles find a way late.
Pick: Eagles 31, Bills 30
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Chargers are having major issues right now and face one of the best teams in the league in this one. The Ravens offense will miss tight end Mark Andrews, but the Chargers defense is perfect for any team throwing the football. The Ravens will win it with a big game from Lamar Jackson.
Pick: Ravens 30, Chargers 23
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
These two are coming off tough losses, with the Bears blowing a huge lead late. It was more damning for the Vikings, a team that had been surging. Minnesota's defense will be the difference here as they get the best of Justin Fields. Vikings take it.
Pick: Vikings 24, Bears 14
