In one of the better episodes from the transcendent comedy series "30 Rock," Alec Baldwin's character Jack Donaghy provides some advice to Liz Lemon, played by Tina Fey, during her darkest days: It's time to go "into the crevasse," Lemon.
As far as picks go for me this year, I'm not doing that poorly. I'm over .500 and in second place for all of our NFL Expert Picks this season. As far as best bets? It's time for the crevasse. Only by diving as deep as possible into the muck and mire of disastrous football teams can I emerge able to actually salvage some pride, both for this weekly story and in the SuperContest.
I have disgraced myself, my family, my friends and Team OddsShark. I have to do a weekly picks podcast with Pete Prisco and Nick Kostos (subscribe on iTunes here, fade the hell out of us!) and every week I am reminded how terrible my best bets are.
You can check out all my Week 4 NFL picks right here, all of our Week 4 NFL Expert Picks here and yell at me for my terrible picks on Twitter @WillBrinson. Come with me into the crevasse and look at these glorious terrible dogs lurking in the darkness.
Dolphins +3 vs. Saints
London games get weird so I'll automatically take the dog in a situation like that, even if the Dolphins have a nightmare travel schedule they're dealing with. The Saints will let out a sigh of relief after thumping the Panthers, but what I took away from that game is you can still run on New Orleans. The Dolphins won't mess around and will feed Jay Ajayi early and often -- he's actually from London! -- after seeing the Panthers average 5.2 yards per carry on 10 carries during their first drive. The Dolphins can't let this turn into a shootout and can't let Jay Cutler try to wing it around. Feed Ajayi, steal a possession and get out of London with a win at 2-1. That would be an incredible start for a team that lost a Week 1 home game and lost to the Jets last week too.
Rams +6.5 at Cowboys
Obviously would prefer that this line be higher after opening Rams +9. But the line is the line and we have to deal with it. These Rams are frisky, and despite giving up lots of rushing yards (a problem against a team with Ezekiel Elliott on it) they can hold their own against the Cowboys, who are coming off a short week. Los Angeles has 10 days to prepare, and if you look at what Kirk Cousins did against the Cowboys while being coached by Sean McVay, it is not unreasonable to expect a nice game from Jared Goff. Todd Gurley can get loose and control tempo and will want to show up against Elliott in this game. Wouldn't be stunned if the Rams pulled the upset. I'll even go ahead and predict it, because why not? What do I have to lose? (A: Nothing.)
49ers +6.5 at Cardinals
Another big dog and this one in a division scenario. Also a situation where I would like to be getting seven points. The 49ers probably should not have covered against the Rams last Thursday, but they have 10 days to prepare, they have enough pieces on offense to slap something together and generate points, and the Cardinals aren't protecting Carson Palmer well right now. The 49ers' defensive front can take advantage of that and force Arizona into eeking out a close win. Good teams win, great teams cover. The 49ers can be great in this game.
Browns +3 vs. Bengals
Oh you thought we couldn't go deeper? Let's go deeper. I don't even love this pick, but I love the idea of taking the Browns as home dogs because it's so gross. The Bengals are desperate and the public will be all over them. The Colts were free money last week because the Browns were road chalk despite winning one game in the last two years. This is a common opponent for Andy Dalton, which could mean he takes a ride on the strugglebus. The Browns have to face off against Vontaze Burfict, which should hurt them running the ball, but they should try and run the ball anyway. Just a feeling they keep it close and pull off an upset here.
Jets +3.5 vs. Jaguars
Here we are. The bottom of the crevasse. Things cannot get worse than right here. Kind of mad I didn't take the Jets last week, honestly. They were getting a Dolphins team that was coming from Los Angeles and dealing with Hurricane Irma ramifications without playing at home. And they're good against the run, which can help them against the Jaguars, who need Leonard Fournette to get going; otherwise, they're going to depend on Blake Bortles to win the game. The Jaguars don't want that. The Jets won't score much against this Jaguars defense, but this game can be close enough that the Jets cover and potentially steal one.
- Last week best bets: 1-4
- Best bets season: 4-11
- Last week overall: 8-8
- Season overall: 24-23