Is anyone else straight-up stunned at how quickly this season has gone by? And it isn't even the Thanksgiving holiday that has me thinking about the warp-speed nature that has been the 2021 regular season -- it's that we're two weeks away from the fantasy football playoffs (if you don't play Week 18)! Hopefully, most of you are in the midst of making that postseason push against your friends/colleagues and also finding some good fortune on your bets. After a rough go of it in Week 10, we were able to rebound slightly in Week 11 with an above .500 mark on our Locks of the Week to keep us at a solid 30-21-ATS record for the season.
Now, we're gearing up for a three-game Thanksgiving slate along with a number of critical matchups upcoming on Sunday. We'll look to heat back up with our bets starting on Turkey Day and flow into the weekend beginning with my five locks of the week!
2021 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 30-21-4
ATS: 75-85-4
ML: 97-66-1
Bears at Lions
Even with Justin Fields sidelined for Chicago due to a rib injury, Andy Dalton is stable enough of a quarterback to go into Detroit and beat this Lions team. So long as he is safe with the football, he should be able to manage this game with ease, especially with David Montgomery in the backfield. Back in Week 4, Montgomery torched this Detroit run defense for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jared Goff (oblique) has a chance to play in this game, but it's unlikely he'll be 100%. If he can't go, Tim Boyle -- who passed for just 77 yards last week -- would get the nod.
Projected score: Bears 24, Lions 17
The pick: Bears -3
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Bills at Saints
The Bills are looking to rebound off of a demoralizing loss to the Colts at home when they visit the Saints in New Orleans for the nightcap of the three-game Thanksgiving slate. Buffalo does seem like it may be catching a break with the Saints possibly without a number of key weapons, including running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram along with All-Pro right tackle Ryan Ramczyk. The running game, led by Jonathan Taylor and his five touchdowns, was the Achilles heel for Buffalo last time out, so not facing a talent like Kamara would be a huge break. Laying less than a touchdown with an offense like the Bills, especially when New Orleans is slated to be without its top weapon on offense, is a great way to lean to wrap up the holiday.
Projected score: Bills 30, Saints 21
The pick: Bills -5.5
Jets at Texans
This game will mean more to the 2022 NFL Draft order than anything else, but that won't stop us from making it a lock of the week. While Houston's win over the Titans was impressive, you can make the argument that Tennessee lost this game more than anything as Ryan Tannehill melted down with four picks. The Texans had just 190 yards of total offense while allowing the Titans to put up 420 on the afternoon, signaling that they are still one of the bottom dwellers in the NFL. While the Jets aren't anything to write home about, either, they are poised to get Zach Wilson back this week and have enough weapons at the skill positions to get an edge here.
Projected score: Jets 23, Texans 17
The pick: Jets +2.5
Panthers at Dolphins
Even in the loss to Washington, it was hard not to come away impressed with Cam Newton in his first start back since returning to Carolina. He completed 77.7% of his passes and totaled three touchdowns on the afternoon. He now faces a Dolphins team that has won three straight but wasn't exactly inspiring in the win over the Jets last time out. Over the last three weeks, Carolina's defense has been much improved by allowing just 4.6 yards per play, which is tied for third-lowest in the NFL. They'll likely give Tua Tagovailoa fits Sunday, as they are also averaging three sacks per game over this recent three-week stretch.
Projected score: Panthers 24, Dolphins 21
The pick: Panthers -1.5
Titans at Patriots
This arguably is the biggest game on the Week 12 slate, especially in the AFC. Tennessee comes into this matchup as the No. 1 seed in the conference, while the Patriots just captured first place in the AFC East, are currently the No. 3 seed, and are on a five-game winning streak. Something will also need to give here as both clubs enter this matchup 7-4 ATS on the season. With this being under seven points, laying the 6.5 and rolling with New England is where I'm standing. Tennessee is currently banged up and one-dimensional with Derrick Henry still sidelined. Bill Belichick will likely scheme to take A.J. Brown (chest) away if he plays, leaving Tannehill to try and beat his team with a collection of second- and third-tier pieces. Against this defense, that's a tall task.
Projected score: Patriots 27, Titans 20
The pick: Patriots -6.5
Rest of the bunch
Raiders at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 31, Raiders 24
The pick: Raiders +8
Steelers at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 27, Steelers 24
The pick: Steelers +4.5
Buccaneers at Colts
Projected score: Colts 28, Buccaneers 24
The pick: Colts +2.5
Eagles at Giants
Projected score: Eagles 27, Giants 20
The pick: Eagles -3.5
Falcons at Jaguars
Projected score: Falcons 24, Jaguars 17
The pick: Falcons PK
Chargers at Broncos
Projected score: Chargers 24, Broncos 21
The pick: Chargers -2.5
Rams at Packers
Projected score: Rams 30, Packers 27
The pick: Rams PK
Vikings at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 23, Vikings 21
The pick: Vikings +3
Browns at Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 27, Browns 20
The pick: Ravens -3.5
Seahawks at Washington
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Washington 21
The pick: Seahawks +1