NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 16, 2023: Model high on Vikings, Dolphins

The final three weeks of the 2023 NFL season are upon us and with 23 teams still within a game of a playoff spot entering Week 16, it will be a mad dash to the finish. The Indianapolis Colts (8-6) currently occupy the final wild-card spot in the AFC playoff bracket, while the Atlanta Falcons (6-8) find themselves a game behind the pace in both the NFC South race and the race for an NFC wild-card berth. Those two teams will go head-to-head on Sunday, with the latest Week 16 NFL odds listing the Falcons as 1-point favorites.

Meanwhile, in another critical matchup, the 9-5 Browns are 2.5-point road favorites over the 8-6 Texans, who will be without C.J. Stroud (concussion). So which side should you be backing in those games and what other Week 16 NFL spreads should you be targeting as you place your NFL bets for the third-to-last week of the regular season? All of the Week 16 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 16 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

No ad available

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 16 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 16 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 16 NFL picks is that the Vikings (+3) cover at home against the Lions in a Sunday 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Despite being three games back in the NFC North, the Vikings had control of their own fate within the division until an overtime loss to the Bengals last week and they still have a reasonable chance of overtaking the Lions.

The two franchises will play head-to-head twice and the Vikings also have a home game against the Packers while the Lions play in Dallas for the third of their final three games. Minnesota can still win the division by sweeping Detroit, beating Green Bay and hoping for a little help from the Cowboys in Week 17. The Vikings have only failed to cover once over their last nine games, while the Lions have failed to cover in three of their last five. That's a big reason why the model has Minnesota covering in over 50% of simulations on Sunday. See which other teams to pick here.

No ad available

Another one of its Week 16 NFL predictions: The Dolphins (-1.5) cover the spread at home versus the Cowboys on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Dolphins bounced back in a big way following their fourth-quarter collapse against the Titans. Miami is coming off a dominant 30-0 win against the New York Jets behind another productive performance from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa completed 21 of 24 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown despite being without star wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Jaylen Waddle stepped up in Hill's absence and Raheem Mostert continued his stellar season after racking up two more touchdowns, his 19th and 20th of the year. The Dolphins are the top-ranked scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 31.5 points per game. In addition, the Cowboys have lost four of their last six games on the road with their two wins being against the Panthers (2-12) and Chargers (5-9). SportsLine's model expects Dallas' struggles to continue on the road as the Dolphins (-1.5) cover the spread well over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 16 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 16 NFL schedule and just revealed teams that outright win well over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

No ad available

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.