The Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants will wrap up Sunday's Week 6 slate in the NFL when they duke it out on prime time from MetLife Stadium.
If someone told you this summer that one of these teams would be 1-4 entering this matchup, the vast majority would probably guess it would be New York, right? Well, Brian Daboll's club comes into Week 6 with a better record -- albeit 2-3 -- than the Bengals, who were looked at amongst the Super Bowl favorites coming into the year. Instead, Cincy hopes to turn the tide in this game and try to save its season.
Joe Burrow and Co. fell to the Ravens in an overtime shootout last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off an impressive road win against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 5.
Bengals vs. Giants where to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 13 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
TV: NBC | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bengals -3.5; O/U 47 (via SportsLine consensus)
When the Bengals have the ball
Cincinnati's offense has woken up over the last few weeks. In the previous three games entering Week 6, the unit is averaging 35 points per game, 417 total yards per game and 6.7 yards per play, all of which rank second in the entire NFL. A large part of that surge has been the uptick in production out of Ja'Marr Chase. He leads the NFL in receiving yards (396), yards per reception (20.8) and receiving touchdowns (five) over that stretch.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow is completing 75% of his passes in the past three games. The Bengals QB should continue to be hyper-efficient passing against a Giants secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.9% of their throws this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL.
Cincinnati's offense has also been stellar at staying on the field, converting 47.54% of its third-down opportunities this year. In the red zone, the Bengals score touchdowns on 68.7% of their trips, ranking them as a top-five offense in that area of the field as well.
What has held the Bengals back so far this season has been their defense, which is bottom five essentially across the board entering Week 6.
When the Giants have the ball
New York will be without star rookie wideout Malik Nabers yet again this week as he is still in concussion protocol. While the Giants were able to notch a win last week without him, it's a sizable blow to the offense. Before going down, Nabers led the NFL in receptions (35) and was second in the league in receiving yards (386).
Without him against Seattle in Week 5, Daniel Jones leaned heavily on Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson in the passing attack. Slayton led the way with 11 targets, which he turned into eight receptions and 122 yards. Meanwhile, Robinson caught six of his nine targets for 36 yards. Each receiver also hauled in a touchdown. Once again, Jones will likely look their way early and often, particularly against a defense that is giving up 5.6 yards per play (tied for fifth highest in the NFL).
While that'll be how New York looks to attack the Bengals when Jones drops back to pass, the more advantageous play could be to attack the Bengals on the ground. This season, Cincinnati is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL (151.4). So, this could be another big opportunity for Tyrone Tracy Jr., who exploded for 129 yards on 18 carries last week against the Seahawks. If active, Devin Singletary will also factor into that backfield attack.
Bengals vs. Giants key matchup
The Giants need to keep this from becoming a shootout. Asking Daniel Jones to go toe-to-toe with Joe Burrow and his cast of elite pass catchers isn't a winning formula, even at home. As we noted above, Cincinnati has a fantastic red zone offense, scoring touchdowns on 68.7% of its red zone trips (fifth best in the NFL). To their credit, the Giants defense has stood tall in the red zone as their 45.4% touchdown rate in that area of the field ranks ninth best in the league. They'll need to maintain that level of play -- and possibly exceed it -- to keep things from going haywire.
Bengals vs. Giants prediction
While Daniel Jones has played better in recent weeks, and Cincinnati's defense has been abysmal thus far, it's hard to ignore the Giants quarterback's struggles in this prime-time setting. Jones is 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS in his career as a starter in home primetime games. The Bengals have historically also struggled on the road in primetime, but Burrow seems to be catching fire, and, outside of a sheer collapse of the offense, it might be hard for New York to match them throw-for-throw.
Projected score: Bengals 27, Giants 23
The pick: Bengals -3.5
