You hear it almost every year: "The (insert team that just lost the Super Bowl) will be back." This year, that team is the San Francisco 49ers -- a team that blew a 10-point to the Kansas City Chiefs in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl to come up agonizingly short of capturing its first Super Bowl since the 1994 season. Now, they'll head into a long offseason with difficult questions lacking clear answers abound.
Why did Kyle Shanahan run out the clock at the end of the first half instead of trying to take a lead into halftime? Why did their defense run out of gas in the final minutes of the game, allowing three touchdowns in a span of five minutes? Why couldn't Jimmy Garoppolo hit an open Emmanuel Sanders downfield for what likely would've been a game-winning touchdown? Why couldn't the defense prevent the Chiefs from converting a third-and-forever that ultimately ended up swinging the game?
But the 49ers will be driven forward this offseason by the belief that the pieces are in place for another Super Bowl run. Garoppolo just finished his first full season as an NFL starter. Shanahan remains one of the sport's best play-callers. Deebo Samuel, as a rookie, likely would've been named Super Bowl MVP if the 49ers had beaten the Chiefs; he looks he's going to be a star receiver, perhaps as quickly as the coming season. The defense already made the leap from promising to great.
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Unfortunately, history says the 2020 season won't unfold similarly for the 49ers. We all thought the Rams would be back after their Super Bowl run a year ago. They wound up missing the playoffs altogether. The Falcons have failed to qualify for the postseason in the two years since their own devastating Super Bowl defeat. Since losing Super Bowl 50, the Panthers are six games below .500 with one playoff appearance in four seasons. The list goes on and on.
As our Bryan DeArdo wrote earlier this week:
Only five teams in NFL history -- the 1972 Dolphins, the 1991-93 Bills and the 2018 Patriots -- have returned to the Super Bowl the year after losing the Big Game. And out of those teams, only the '72 Dolphins and '18 Patriots were able to hoist the Lombardi Trophy a year after being on the short end of the Super Bowl scoreboard.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the biggest questions the 49ers need to answer before and during the 2020 season in order to make it back to the Super Bowl and this time, complete their journey with a win.
Can Garoppolo continue to improve?
Without a doubt, this is the most important question pertaining to the 49ers' immediate and long-term future. If the 49ers are going to win a Super Bowl, they likely need their quarterback to continue his process of development.
But first, let's just acknowledge that it is actually possible for the 49ers to escape the mega contract they handed Garoppolo back in 2018, if they want to. Garoppolo carries a cap hit of $26.6 million next season. If they were to cut him, they'd be forced to eat only $4.2 million in dead cap, meaning they'd save just over $22 million (all numbers via Spotrac). I don't think the 49ers will cut Garoppolo nor do I think they should. But the contract is important, which we'll get to in just a moment.
Assuming Garoppolo will be back, the 49ers will need him to continue to develop. Even though Garoppolo just wrapped up his sixth NFL season, the 2019 season marked his first full season as a starter. From 2014-18, Garoppolo accumulated 10 starts due to his position on the Patriots' depth chat (behind Tom Brady), a midseason trade that required time to get settled with the 49ers before stepping out onto the field, and a torn ACL that ended his 2018 season in Week 3. So, there's reason to believe he could still get better.
In a full 16-start season, Garoppolo completed 69.1 percent of his passes (fourth-best), averaged 8.4 yards per attempt (third-best), threw for 27 touchdowns (tied for fifth) and 13 picks (tied for the eighth-most), and posted a 102.0 passer rating (eighth-best). By most statistical measures, Garoppolo was a top-10ish quarterback. He finished 12th in DYAR, 11th in DVOA, and 12th in total QBR. For a team with a great defense and running game, that was enough -- well, almost enough.
But there are areas that Garoppolo needs to improve in. He averaged an interception on 2.7 percent of his pass attempts -- only six quarterbacks posted a higher interception rate. Those quarterbacks? Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Philip Rivers, Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, and Sam Darnold. In the playoffs, he averaged an interception on 5.2 percent of his pass attempts.
We saw his propensity for interceptions hurt the 49ers in the Super Bowl, when he threw an unforgivable interception that led to a Chiefs field goal. He was trying to throw the ball away to avoid a sack, but he should've just eaten the ball and taken the loss of yards instead of blindly throwing the football and hoping it fell incomplete.
He also fumbled 10 times in the regular season, tied for the eighth most. Protecting the ball needs to be prioritized next season.
Garoppolo put up good numbers all season long, but it did feel like Shanahan never quite trusted Garoppolo to deliver in moments when opposing defenses knew the 49ers had to throw the ball. We saw this at the end of the first half in the Super Bowl when Shanahan opted to run out the clock instead of trying to score (more on this later).
Late in Sunday's game, when the 49ers needed Garoppolo to move the ball, he failed to do so due to a combination of factors. First and foremost, the Chiefs' defensive front deserves credit for generating pressure. That's not on Garoppolo, who had one key pass batted down at the line by Chris Jones, got sacked on fourth down by Frank Clark, and was forced to scramble short of the line to gain on a key third down due to pressure flushing him out of the pocket. But Garoppolo also missed a couple of open targets -- both with his eyes and his arm.
Below, you'll see a receiver wide open in the flat. Instead, under immediate pressure up the middle, he fired high toward a well-covered target.
Below, Garoppolo had a chance to win the whole damn thing, but he overthrew Sanders. It wasn't an easy throw. But it was available and it wasn't the first time bad ball placement by their quarterback cost the 49ers.
Garoppolo doesn't deserve all of the blame for the 49ers' Super Bowl loss. A number of factors contributed to the result. Nearly every area of the team deserves a portion of the blame. But the 49ers likely need Garoppolo to take the next step in his development if they're going to be one of the few Super Bowl runners-up to make it back to the promised land.
And here's where it's worth bringing up his contract again. The 49ers can save over $24 million if they cut him after the 2020 season. They can save over $25.5 million if they cut him after the 2021 season before the final year of his deal in 2022. I doubt that'll happen. I think he'll play well enough to justify keeping him around as the salary cap rises and quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson get huge long-term deals, which will make his cap hits seem much more modest by comparison. But it is worth remembering as we keep a close eye on his development. If he were to struggle in 2020 -- and I do not expect that to happen, not with Shanahan as his play-caller -- moving on from him wouldn't be out of the question.
Will the defense maintain its dominance?
Nobody should expect the 49ers' defense to suddenly suck in 2020, but it is difficult for defenses to maintain elite production from one year to the next. A year ago, the Bears had the league's top defense by DVOA. This past season, due to a number of factors like an uptick in injuries and the loss of key contributors in the offseason, the Bears fell to eighth. Two years ago, the Jaguars had the best defense by DVOA. In 2018, they fell to sixth. The point being, the 49ers defense should be very good next season, but they might not be able to be as great as they were this past season when they were the league's second-best defense by DVOA.
Richard Sherman will be 32 when next season kicks off. Two key pieces on the defense are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents (more on that below).
If they can maintain their dominance on defense, the 49ers should remain the top contender in the NFC. If they don't maintain their dominance and merely become a good defense, they'll need their quarterback to improve to offset their regression. That's how the first two questions are linked. The Bears didn't get improved play from Mitchell Trubisky. The Jaguars didn't get improved play from Blake Bortles. As a result, both teams couldn't sustain their success when their defenses took a step backward. Luckily for the 49ers, Garoppolo is already much better than both of those quarterbacks.
How many impending FAs can they retain?
The 49ers have some difficult decisions to make in free agency because a number of key players are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents. According to Spotrac, the 49ers have roughly $17 million in available cap space, which ranks 26th-most in the NFL, as it stands today.
The following important players are slated to become UFAs:
- Defensive lineman Arik Armstead
- Safety Jimmie Ward
- Receiver Emmanuel Sanders
Armstead is likely the priority. The 49ers' defensive line was the strength of this past season's team. Their dominance up front allowed the 49ers to consistently apply pressure (they had the second-highest pressure rate) by rushing only four and dropping seven into coverage (they blitzed at the fourth-lowest rate). Armstead, a first-round pick in 2015, exploded for 10 sacks this season after notching nine total sacks during the first four years of his career. The franchise tag might be their best option so they can see if Armstead can replicate his success in 2020.
Ward, also a former first-round pick who pieced together arguably the best season of his career in 2019, could be brought back unless the 49ers decide to insert 2018 third-round pick Tarvarius Moore into the starting lineup. Moore appeared in all 16 regular season games, but only collected three starts. His lone interception this season came in the Super Bowl. Ward will only be 29 next season, so the 49ers might make keeping him a priority.
As for Sanders' future, that'll be an interesting decision for both parties. Would Sanders take less money to remain in San Francisco and play for a contender? The 49ers would likely want him back because outside of Samuel -- who, again, looks like a superstar -- they don't really have a starting-caliber receiver. 2018 second-round pick Dante Pettis seldom contributed in Year 2. Kendrick Bourne had his moments, but he's probably not worthy of a starting spot. Sanders will be 33 next season and he's already won a Super Bowl, so he wouldn't be wrong to prioritize money. If the 49ers do let him go, they'll need to address the receiver position either in free agency or the draft. He'd be a big loss. He averaged 50.2 yards per game with the 49ers.
Meanwhile, center Ben Garland is an unrestricted free agent. Running back Matt Breida and Bourne are restricted free agents. And cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who started opposite Sherman in the NFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl, is an exclusive restricted free agent. Those are the most notable players the 49ers will have to make decisions on. You can see the full list of free agents here.
Furthermore, star tight end George Kittle and star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner could be due for extensions, neither of which will be cheap.
How do they bolster roster without many draft picks?
The 49ers will need to get better without many draft picks. They won't be on the clock until the 31st pick of the first round, and then they won't pick again until Round 5. They don't have a single pick in Rounds 2-4.
- Round 1: San Francisco
- Round 2: None
- Round 3: None
- Round 4: None
- Round 5: Denver, San Francisco
- Round 6: San Francisco
- Round 7: Detroit, San Francisco
While they don't necessarily have any truly urgent needs, they might want to upgrade on the interior of their offensive line and replace any of the players they let walk in free agency -- perhaps at safety if Ward leaves or receiver if Sanders departs. They should also seek to get younger at cornerback with Sherman entering his age 32 season and, crucially, the final year of his deal.
It'll be interesting to see how they approach the draft without much ammunition. Trading back out of the first round could be an option if they want to acquire more picks in the middle rounds.
Will Shanahan learn from his mistakes?
It took Andy Reid 21 seasons to capture his first Super Bowl. Shanahan is going to have plenty of more time to win his first championship. His legacy hasn't already been written. He's going to get more chances.
I'm not that interested or concerned about the narrative of Shanahan's teams blowing fourth-quarter leads in the Super Bowl. I actually thought his play-calling in the 28-3 collapse, when he was the Falcons' offensive coordinator, was mostly justified. He had an MVP quarterback and a top passing offense. He knew he was trying to hold off Tom Brady. That's why he was so aggressive. I also don't think his play-calling late in the loss to the Chiefs should be criticized. He drew up a wide-open game-winning touchdown, but Garoppolo missed it. It's not his fault that Jones batted down what would've been a first down completion from Garoppolo to Kittle.
Where Shanahan deserves criticism is his decision-making earlier in the game when the 49ers were in the process of trying to build a lead.
He kicked a field goal in the third quarter on fourth-and-2 at the 24-yard line in a tie game -- even though he was going up against a coach who had twice already demonstrated a willingness to pass on field goals to go for it on fourth-and-short and even though he was trying to outscore Patrick freakin' Mahomes. You do not beat Patrick Mahomes by kicking field goals.
He also declined to try to score late in the first half, instead choosing to settle for a 10-10 scoreline. First, he let 40 seconds tick off the clock between third and fourth down as the Chiefs lined up to punt when he could've used one of his three timeouts. Then, with 59 seconds left, he ran the ball twice before finally throwing the ball on third down with 20 seconds left. As a result, after Garoppolo hit Jeff Wilson for 20 yards, the 49ers only had time to run two more plays. Even if the ensuing offensive pass-interference call hadn't been called on Kittle to negate a 42-yard completion, the 49ers would've been left with only six seconds to score a touchdown from the 13-yard line. They likely would've been forced to settle for a field goal. And because they didn't use their timeouts and ran the ball twice to begin the drive, they didn't have time for another shot to move the ball downfield after the penalty. They kneeled the ball instead and went into halftime tied at 10-10.
It took Reid a long time to get more aggressive. He still isn't always as aggressive as he should be. But Reid was the more aggressive coach in the Super Bowl and it paid off, while Shanahan's conservative approach ultimately ended up hurting his team. It wasn't the reason they lost. But it was one reason.
How Shanahan learns from his mistakes will matter moving forward, especially if the 49ers make it back to the playoffs and find themselves in another close game against another formidable foe. It's decisions like those that can swing a game.