I don't think you realize how good Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been this season. And I don't mean "you" as in you, the reader, and certainly don't mean it in a condescending way.
I mean it generally. It feels like Howell's breakout season in Washington has gone largely unnoticed, maybe because his team is 4-5? Maybe because he's gotten sacked a bunch? Or -- I know! -- maybe it's because he was a fifth-round pick in 2022.
In reality, a combination of those three things has probably led to the relative under-the-radar feel of Howell's second year in the NFL. But Howell currently has the highest-grade (B- and trending very close to a B) in my weekly young quarterback evaluation series among those passers with at least 100 attempts to date. A higher grade than Brock Purdy and, yes, even C.J. Stroud. Don't forget too, he enters Week 10 second in the NFL in passing yards.
Let's circle back to Howell's draft status.
Starting the new millenium in the Year 2000, there've been 169 quarterbacks selected in the fourth round or later.
The widely considered greatest quarterback in NFL history, Tom Brady, was one of them, famously picked at No. 199 overall, in the sixth round by the Patriots in the 2000 draft.
Since then, the hit rate on those later-round passers has been, to be blunt, brutal. Now, have some serviceable backups and spot starters been found in Round 4 and beyond over the past 24 drafts? Of course. Quarterbacks of legitimate, long-term substance, franchise passers? Not really. Only a few, really.
There's Kirk Cousins, selected by Washington in 2012 after selling the farm to pick Robert Griffin III three rounds earlier. Then Dak Prescott, a Cowboys fourth-round pick in 2016 and, maybe, just maybe, Brock Purdy, whom the 49ers made Mr. Irrelevant in 2022.
Can't forget Ryan Fitzpatrick either, a seventh-round pick by the then St. Louis Rams in 2005, who became the ultimate journeyman with plenty of short-lived peaks. He falls somewhere between both classifications.
And now we get to Howell, a fifth-round selection by the Commanders in 2022. Clearly, based on history, most Day 3 quarterback selections aren't too fascinating. Howell's an exception because before his final season at North Carolina, he was universally regarded as a future first-round pick, and to many, the finest quarterback prospect to be available in the 2022 draft.
But as the 2021 Tar Heels faltered after losing plenty of talent to the NFL, most notably Howell's two star receivers and both dynamic running backs, his stock plummeted and five passers were selected in front of him. As a rookie in Washington, Howell chilled on the bench before starting the season finale in which he only threw the football 19 times in a surprising Commanders win over the playoff-bound Cowboys.
This season, Howell has made "the leap." Does that mean he's been absolutely perfect or should be in the MVP race. No. But he's clearly taken a sizable step forward and has routinely connected on throws the vast majority of young quarterbacks simply cannot make. Check how Howell stacks up in the Big-Time Throw (BTT) department with these, let's say, rather well-known passers:
| BTTs through first 10 NFL starts | BTT Rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25 | 7.5% |
Patrick Mahomes | 26 | 7.3% |
| Baker Mayfield | 26 | 7.3% |
Sam Howell | 23 | 5.9% |
| Jalen Hurts | 20 | 5.8% |
Josh Allen | 16 | 5.7% |
Justin Herbert | 19 | 4.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 16 | 4.4% |
Joe Burrow | 15 | 3.7% |
Attention-grabbing, isn't it? And Jalen Hurts is the only other quarterback in that chart who wasn't selected in the first round over the past 10 years.
Of course, quarterbacks shouldn't only be measured by big-time throws and the rates in which they generate them. But, with increasing prevalence of easy, schemed open throws in every NFL offense, it's becoming those BTTs that play a key role in separating the bad from the good, and the good from the great at the quarterback position.
In short, if my quarterback isn't capable of ripping a few big-time throws per game, I'm probably going to need a nearly perfect outing from my offensive coordinator, offensive line, receivers, and running backs to win in most occasions and especially against the most challenging competition. That's a big ask. From the quarterback's perspective, if he can't make those high-degree of difficulty throws, he'll need to be surgical with his accuracy and process like a brand new Mac computer to succeed in the NFL. Another big ask.
And sure, Howell has taken an absurd amount of sacks. His current 11.2% sack rate is high but not unprecedentedly high for a quarterback this early in his professional career. Also, it's common for quality quarterbacks to decrease their sack rate drop as they move forward in their development process. And Howell has certainly proven to be developing in 2023.
Like the sacks, the interceptions and/or turnover-worthy plays have to come down too. Those turnover problems can linger longer than sacks for young quarterbacks, but let's not forget Howell has just completed playing half a regular-season worth of games in the NFL. If he finishes the 2023 season with somewhere between 13-17 interceptions, it won't be overly concerning, particularly if he counters those with 40-plus big-time throws, which is where he's tracking.
Based on what he's shown to date, I believe Howell can be the best Day 3 quarterback since Brady. His competition for that title is most notably Cousins and Prescott. Staying with the BTT theme, Prescott registered nine of them with a tiny 2.8% rate as a rookie in Dallas in 2016. Cousins didn't start his 10th game until his fourth professional season. At the completion of that contest, he had 23 BTTs to his name at a sizable 6.3%, a percentage point higher than Howell.
And the Commanders youngster is a better athlete than Cousins, a physical skill set probably in Prescott's range yet he's already shown more wherewithal and willingness as a runner than either of the veterans.
With Terry McLaurin and former first-round pick Jahan Dotson installed in the offense, Patrick Mahomes long-time offensive coordinator calling his plays, and his team set to have the third-most cap space in football next season (plus a new owner), Howell appears to have all the necessary environmental factors to foster his big-time throw capabilities to eventually cement himself as the shiniest Day 3 gem at quarterback since Tom Brady.