A date in the NFC Championship Game to face the San Francisco 49ers will be on the line when the Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a NFC Divisional Round Playoff Game on Sunday at Ford Field. The Lions (13-5) have not reached the conference title game since the 1991 season. That's tied for the second longest active drought in the league, behind only the Browns, who haven't been to the conference championship game since the 1989 season. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers (10-8) are looking to reach the NFC Championship Game for the fifth time in franchise history and second time in four seasons. The winner will visit the top-seeded 49ers, who rallied to beat the Packers, 24-21, on Saturday.
Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET in Detroit. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Lions as six-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 49.5 in the latest Buccaneers vs. Lions odds. Before you make any Lions vs. Buccaneers picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Buccaneers vs. Lions and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Buccaneers vs. Lions:
- Buccaneers vs. Lions spread: Lions -6
- Buccaneers vs. Lions over/under: 49.5 points
- Buccaneers vs. Lions money line: Lions -273, Buccaneers +222
- TB: Buccaneers are 8-1 against the spread in road games
- DET: Lions are 5-4 against the spread in home games
- Buccaneers vs. Lions picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Buccaneers vs. Lions live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Buccaneers can cover
The Buccaneers committed only 18 turnovers during the regular season, ranking No. 6 in the NFL, and were firmly in the top 10 in third down efficiency (41.5%) and fourth down efficiency (66.7%). Quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing at a high level right now, evidenced by his 337 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against the Eagles last week.
Running back Rachaad White finished No. 7 with 1,539 yards from scrimmage this season and is a workhorse at the running back position. On the outside, receiver Mike Evans was named a second team All-Pro in 2023, catching 79 passes for 1,255 yards. Evans has at least 1,000 receiving yards in 10 straight seasons and led the NFL with 13 receiving touchdowns. Detroit's defense yielded 425 total yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams last week and was in the bottom 10 in giving up 23.2 points per game and 2.06 points per drive during the regular season. See which team to pick here.
Why the Lions can cover
Jared Goff has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season. The former No. 1 overall pick ranked second in the NFL in passing yards (4,575) and fourth in touchdown passes (30) during the regular season. In the Week 6 victory over Tampa Bay, Goff passed for a season-high 353 yards and two touchdowns.
In addition, Aidan Hutchinson is a pass-rushing force off the edge for Detroit. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Hutchinson leads the league in pressures (110) and natural pressures (74) this season, including the playoffs. In last week's Wild Card win over the Rams, he got pressure on 9-of-23 pass rushes, which is the highest pressure rate (39.1%) by any player in the last five postseasons (minimum 20 pass rushes). See which team to pick here.
How to make Buccaneers vs. Lions picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Under the point total, with no rusher projected to exceed 61 yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Lions vs. Buccaneers in the NFL playoffs 2024, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Lions vs. Buccaneers spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model on a 183-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.