FRISCO, Texas -- The 2023 Green Bay Packers enter the postseason without the burden of Super Bowl or bust expectations.
Future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP and Super Bowl XLV MVP, brought many on-field attributes to the table that provided Packers fans with plenty of joy in his 15 seasons as the team's starter. Now many Green Bay fans possess a light airiness that comes with rooting for the youngest playoff team since the 1974 Buffalo Bills with an average age of 25 years, 214 days old, including first-year, full-time starting quarterback Jordan love.
However, as is typical with Packers starting quarterbacks since 1992 -- Hall of Famer Brett Favre's first season as Green Bay's starter -- Love is playing like one of the league's best anyways. His 32 passing touchdowns in 2023 are four more than Rodgers had in his first season replacing Favre in 2008, ranking second in the league this season behind only Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott's NFL-best 36. That makes Sunday's contest the first ever wild-card round game between the top-two outright league leaders in passing touchdowns. The majority of those scoring strikes came in the last eight games as Green Bay won as many games in that span (6-2) as it lost in its first nine contests (3-6).
Jordan Love this season
| Love (2023 season) | First Nine Games | Last Eight Games |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 3-6 | 6-2 |
Comp pct | 59% | 70% |
Yards/Pass Att | 6.7 | 7.7 |
Pass YPG | 223.2 | 268.8 |
TD-INT | 14-10 | 18-1* |
| Passer Rating | 80.5 | 112.7 |
* Sixth QB all time with 18+ pass TD and 0 or 1 INT in final eight games
These last eight games provided the Packers with the knowledge that they have found their future at quarterback in Love in addition to the ability to break down three reasons why a historically young Green Bay squad will keep Dallas from reaching at least the conference championship round of the postseason for an NFL-record 13th consecutive trip.
How to watch Cowboys vs. Packers
Date: Sunday, January 14 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: FOX | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Cowboys -7.5; O/U 50.5 (SportsLine consensus)
1. Aaron Jones maintains his hot streak against the Cowboys
These two teams squared off a year ago in Week 10 of the 2022 season, and a struggling Packers team improved to 4-6 while a strong Cowboys squad dropped to 6-3 after Green Bay completed a 14-point fourth-quarterback comeback to win 31-28 in overtime.
One of the driving forces for Green Bay's offense that day was running back Aaron Jones. He ran wild for 138 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, 5.8 yards per rush. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was determined to wear out a Cowboys defense much more well-equipped to defend the pass from the start, calling running plays on 16 of the Packers' first 21 plays from scrimmage on their first three drives of that game.
That formula could have a similar effect on Sunday. In three of Dallas' five losses this season, the Cowboys have been bludgeoned on the ground, allowing at least 170 yards rushing in all three of those contests. In their 31-10 debacle at the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, the Cowboys surrendered 266 rushing yards, the most under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn since 2021.
Bills running back James Cook totaled a career-high 179 rushing yards on 25 carries with a touchdown, a 24-yarder. That came out to a 7.2 yards-per-carry average in that game. In their upcoming matchup with Jones, the Cowboys defense will face the running back that has been the franchise's hardest to slow down: The El Paso native averages 123.3 rushing yards per game against Dallas, the most by any player with a minimum three games played -- according to NFL Media Senior Researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno.
Most rush YPG vs. Cowboys all time (minimum three games played)
| Player | Rush YPG | Games Played vs. Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
Aaron Jones | 123.3 | 3 |
Barry Sanders | 119.0 | 4 |
Walter Payton | 115.3 | 7 |
While historical trends are nice, Jones is also en fuego at the present moment. He has three consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards, the longest active streak in the NFL. After dealing with a nagging hamstring injury since Week 1 at the Chicago Bears, he is finally healthy. Establishing Jones and running plays into Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence's faces is a major key to wearing out the Cowboys' ferocious pass rush.
2. Jordan Love continues his best Aaron Rodgers impression
While it might seem hyperbolic to compare Love with his Packers predecessor, the team's all-time leader in passing touchdowns with 475, Love's closing stretch of 2023 resembled Rodgers' run toward his latest MVP award in the 2021 season. He became just the sixth quarterback all time to throw for at least 18 touchdowns and one or zero interceptions in his final eight games of a year. Love finished 2023 with consecutive NFC Offensive Player of the Year awards in Weeks 17 and 18 at the Minnesota Vikings and against the Chicago Bears after throwing for 572 yards and five touchdowns on 78.5% (51-65) passing.
18+ Pass TD and 0 or 1 INT in final eight games (NFL history)
| Season | Player |
|---|---|
2023 | Jordan Love |
2021 | Aaron Rodgers* |
2019 | Drew Brees |
2019 | |
2015 | Cam Newton* |
2010 |
* Won MVP
The Dallas Cowboys versus the Green Bay Packers is tied for the most frequently occurring postseason matchup in league history, and each of the last two matchups ended in Packers victories where Green Bay had the football last.
There was the 26-21 win at Lambeau Field in the "Dez [Bryant] Caught It" game from the 2014 season where Rodgers ended up taking a knee to end the game and a 34-31 buzzer-beating victory at AT&T Stadium involving Rodgers throwing a frozen rope down the left sideline to tight end Jared Cook, whose toe-drag catch set up Mason Crosby's 51-yard game-winning field goal as time expired.
This season, the Cowboys' top-five scoring (18.5 points per game, fifth best in the NFL) and total defense (299.7 total yards per game, fifth best in the NFL) has folded the last two times when on the field attempting to preserve a one-score lead on the game's final drive. In Week 16, Dallas surrendered a 12-play, 64-yard drive that spanned the final 3:27 of their game against the Miami Dolphins, seeing a 20-19 lead flip to a 22-0 defeat courtesy of a 29-yard field goal by kicker Jason Sanders with no time remaining.
The very next week, the Cowboys allowed the Detroit Lions to march 75 yards in nine plays across 1:18 of game time to score a potentially game-tying touchdown on a Jared Goff 11-yard scoring strike to wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown with 23 seconds left. Dallas' defense did eventually hold off the Lions' controversial two-point conversion attempts, but not before nearly losing the game.
One of the key characteristics of Love's game is his ability to maintain a strong amount of zip and arm strength on his passes while backpedaling in the pocket and throwing off of his back foot, a signature component of Rodgers' game.
Dontayvion Wicks puts the Packers ahead!
— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
📺: #CHIvsGB on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/Y1fZ4ntm17
"It's tough because he's never in a compromised position," Dallas Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse said of Love on Wednesday. "Usually when guys are throwing off their back foot and backpedaling backwards and going off their back foot, it usually doesn't have much zip on it. It gives the defensive backs a lot of opportunities to get there and make plays on the ball. When he's doing that, there's still zip on it. He's still getting the ball there. That's something that's been tremendous when I talk about A-Rod-like things. That's one of the things I see."
The #Vikings sugar middle field closed then late rotate into Tampa 2 and #Packers QB Jordan Love blows the doors off the base to rookie Jayden Reed! #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/lx9Q9Dckvg
— Packers Total Access- Clayton (@packers_access) January 1, 2024
Love continuing to play like Rodgers at AT&T Stadium, a venue in which Green Bay has won all five games, including Super Bowl XLV, could be enough to outduel Prescott and the Cowboys on their home turf.
3. Their stout offensive line
The Packers offensive line, despite missing All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, is allowing a quarterback pressure rate of 30.3%, the third lowest in the NFL this season. That's in direct opposition of the Cowboys' 45% quarterback pressure rate generated, the most in the entire league.
Dallas Pro Bowl edge rusher Micah Parsons led the NFL in quarterback pressures (103), quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) and pass rush win rate (35.3%), which is when a defender beats his blocks in less than 2.5 seconds. Remarkable considering Parsons was double-teamed on 35% of his pass rush plays in 2023, the most in the league among edge players, according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats. No other edge rusher was double-teamed at 30% or higher rate besides Parsons.
However, he'll have to contend with Pro Bowl left guard Elgton Jenkins and cast of young, yet reliable linemen tasked with protecting Love. Green Bay winning at the line of scrimmage in pass-blocking and not just in run-blocking for Aaron Jones will be one of the three key factors in a Packers victory on Sunday.
