With just two weeks to play in the 2023 NFL season, there are still 24 teams in playoff contention. If that sounds like a high number, that's because it is. You almost never see that many teams still alive at the this point in the season.
As a matter of fact, since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, this is tied for the second-most teams that have been in contention with two weeks left on the schedule. The only time we saw a higher number came in 2004 when there were 26 teams still alive.
With so many teams still in it, you might be wondering who's actually going to make the playoffs this year and that's what we're going to answer right now in this week's playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the 2023 NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.
With that in mind, let's get to this week's playoff projections (For more from Stephen Oh and his SportsLine "Inside the Lines" team, you can tune into his YouTube channel daily at 1 p.m. ET by clicking here).
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC North Champion) | |
| After pulling off a huge win over the 49ers in Week 16, the Ravens (12-3) can officially clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC by beating the Dolphins on Sunday. The computer has been projecting the Ravens in this spot for nearly a month and the computer could finally be vindicated with a Ravens win over Miami. Remaining schedule: Dolphins, Steelers | |
| 2. (AFC East Champion) | |
| The Dolphins (11-4) have already clinched a playoff berth, but the computer still isn't sure if they're going to win the AFC East. According to our projection, the Dolphins have a 73.4% chance of winning the division while the Bills are behind them at 26.6%. That being said, if Miami loses to Baltimore this week and the Bills beat the Patriots, then the two teams will be playing for the AFC East title in Week 18. Remaining schedule: at Ravens, Bills | |
| 3. (AFC West Champion) | |
| Due to their loss in Week 16, the Chiefs (9-6) can no longer earn the top seed in the AFC, which means they'll definitely be playing in the wild-card round this year. Right now, the computer has them playing the Bills in the opening round, which would definitely be must-see TV. And if anyone at the NFL is reading, feel free to give that game to CBS. Remaining schedule: Bengals, at Chargers | |
| 4. (AFC South Champion) | |
| Even though the Jaguars, Colts and Texans are all tied at 8-7, the computer still thinks this division is Jacksonville's to lose. The biggest thing working in the Jags' favor is that they'll likely hold several key tiebreakers over the other two teams. Not only did they sweep the Colts, but they're guaranteed to finish with a better division record than the Texans if they can beat the Titans in Week 18. The Jags also have the easiest remaining strength of schedule of any team in the NFL. Remaining schedule: Panthers, at Titans | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| Although this team is still mathematically alive for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the computer doesn't think Cleveland (10-5) will be able to steal that away from Baltimore. However, the computer does love Joe Flacco (as much as a computer can love something) and it's projecting the Browns to coast to the top wild-card spot in the AFC. Remaining schedule: Jets, at Bengals | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| The Bills (9-6) might be the most intriguing team in the projection. If they win out, not only are they guaranteed to get a wild-card spot, but they could also end up as the AFC East champion. If that happens, that means that Bills would get at least one playoff home game in January. Remaining schedule: Patriots, at Dolphins | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The computer thinks the final wild-card spot is going to come down to the winner of the Colts-Texans game in Week 18 and based on who we have there in this projection, you can tell who the computer is picking in this game. Of course, the Raiders could throw a wrench in this projection by beating the Colts on Sunday. If that happens, it would keep Vegas' playoff hopes alive. Right now, the computer is giving the Raiders just a 13.2% chance of getting in. Remaining schedule: Raiders, Texans | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Texans (43.7%), Bengals (22.2%), Steelers (14.1%), Raiders (13.2%), Broncos (1.4%), Chargers (Eliminated), Titans ((ELIMINATED) Jets (ELIMINATED), Patriots (ELIMINATED)
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC West Champion) | |
| Even though the 49ers (11-4) lost in Week 16, the computer still feels pretty confident that San Francisco will end up with the top seed in the NFC. The 49ers have the head-to-head edge over the Eagles and if they end up in a tiebreaker with the Lions, they hold the conference record edge there. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, Rams | |
| 2. (NFC East Champion) | |
| The Eagles still aren't playing great football, but despite that, the computer still views them as a lock to win the NFC East. Heading into Week 17, the computer is giving the Eagles a 95.3% chance of winning the division, which means it would take a total collapse for them not to become the NFC East's first repeat champion in 19 years. Remaining schedule: Cardinals at Giants | |
| 3. (NFC North Champion) | |
| The Lions (11-4) officially clinched the NFC North with their win over the Vikings on Sunday, which means Detroit will now get to host its first NFL playoff game in 30 years. As things stand right now, the computer is projecting that the Lions will face the Seahawks, which is one of the four teams that Detroit has lost to this season. The computer loves drama. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, Vikings | |
| 4. (NFC South Champion) | |
| For nearly a month now, the computer has been projecting that the Buccaneers would win the NFC South and now, that's one game away from happening. If the Bucs beat the Saints in Week 17, then Tampa Bay will clinch the division title. Right now, the computer is giving Tampa Bay an 89.3% chance of winning its third straight division crown. Remaining schedule: Saints, at Panthers | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| We've been doing projections for six weeks now and if there is one thing the computer has been consistent with all year, it's that the Cowboys (10-5) are going to get the fifth seed in the NFC, and their loss to the Dolphins on Sunday likely sealed that fate. Remaining schedule: Lions, at Commanders | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| If the Seahawks (8-7) win out, then they'll punch their ticket to the playoffs, and right now, the computer seems pretty confident that's going to happen. Heading into Week 17, the computer is giving Seattle a 70.1% chance of making the postseason. Remaining schedule: Steelers at Cardinals | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The 49ers loss on Christmas actually hurt the Rams (8-7) and that's because it pretty much guarantees that San Francisco will have something to play for when these two teams meet up in Week 18. The good news for the Rams is that they can lose that game and still get in, and that's exactly what the computer thinks is going to happen. The Rams have a 64.8% chance of making the playoffs, which is WAY ahead of the next-closest contender, which is the Packers at 28.3%. Remaining schedule: at Giants, 49ers | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Packers (28.3%), Vikings (27.4%), Saints (12.2%), Falcons (4.9%), Bears (0.7%), Giants (ELIMINATED), Commanders (ELIMINATED), Cardinals (ELIMINATED), Panthers (ELIMINATED)
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Colts at (2) Dolphins
(6) Bills at (3) Chiefs
(5) Browns at (4) Jaguars
Bye: Ravens
NFC
(7) Rams at (2) Eagles
(6) Seahawks at (3) Lions
(5) Cowboys at (4) Buccaneers
Bye: 49ers