The 2023 NFL Draft is days away and I'm sure you've read your fair share of mock drafts at this point. If you're anything like me, that means you wake up and consume a mock with your morning coffee and then again at lunch. So I wanted to try a different kind of mock draft with a unique spin to it.
We'll do a first-round mock but with a Fantasy Football focus, which means a breakdown of how every pick impacts each prospect and team from a Fantasy standpoint both in the short term for your 2022 season-long drafts and a long term with a focus on Dynasty and keeper leagues.
There may not be a consensus at the top of his draft after the first pick, which makes it fun for the mock drafter, but I feel confident in saying we'll see a lot more wide receivers come off the board than typical. That's the exact line I used in this mock last year before we saw a slew of wide receivers come off the board in the first three rounds of last year's actual draft. That's a credit to the depth of the receiver position and a nod to the positional value.
With top wide receivers in the NFL garnering massive contracts nearing quarterback numbers and requiring massive capital to acquire in trade, it's more important now than ever to draft one locked into a five-year rookie contract. And I think we'll see that reflected in this year's first round despite it not being a great class for top-end receivers. We'll also see some tight ends creep into the mix in what is undoubtedly the most talented tight end class I've studied.
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Without further ado, let's jump in:
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
Bryce Young
QB
Alabama
• Soph
• 5'10"
/ 204 lbs
Young has been groomed for this moment for a long time and it shows up when you watch his game film from any of his seasons at Alabama. No quarterback comes close to Young when it comes to post-snap processing -- at least not yet. Young is calm, poised and deals with muddy pockets better than any other QB in this class by a wide margin. That trait will help him immediately translate to the NFL level where pocket presence can make or break a rookie quarterback's success. Young has the ability to escape the pocket, but he's unlikely to add much on the ground from a Fantasy standpoint. However, Young's ability to layer the ball against zone coverages and to throw with anticipation and touch on the 20+ yard deep throws will give him an opportunity to land in the middle of the QB2 range with a chance for back-end QB1 upside if the Panthers upgrade at wide receiver after this pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Will Levis
QB
Kentucky
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 229 lbs
Levis is not the direction I would go here as I came away unimpressed with his tape dating back to 2021 that I watched when evaluating Wan'Dale Robinson, but he appears to be the direction Houston is leaning -- at least if you follow the gambling odds and how much they've moved in favor of him being the second pick overall. With the current regime in place, it makes sense that Houston would prioritize frame. I have my reservations about Levis and one of the biggest concerns for me is how he deals with muddy pockets. The good news is that he'd be joining a Texans team with arguably the league's best pass protecting left tackle in Laremy Tunsil in addition to a high-upside pair of guards in Shaq Mason and Kenyon Green, the latter of whom struggled as a rookie but should improve in 2023. Finding weapons for Levis will be the next priority, but even with a heavy rest-of-draft investment at wide receiver, this will not be a supporting cast that can bolster Levis into startable territory in one-QB redraft leagues.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 - Pick 3
Florida
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 244 lbs
In this mock, Detroit trades up with Arizona and sends back a future first-round pick and No. 152 this year to put Richardson in his best possible landing spot. Not only does Richardson get a full season to develop his footwork, mechanics and sync them up, but he also gets that full season to learn the offense from a veteran with Super Bowl experience. When Richardson finally takes the field, he'll set up behind arguably the best young offensive line in football, with arguably the best play caller (offensive coordinator Ben Johnson), an established run game to take pressure off and set up a deadly play action shot-play offense with elite speedster wide receiver Jameson Williams to complement Richardson's arm talent. He'll also benefit from destroyer of any two-way route in the slot no matter the nickel corner: Amon-Ra St. Brown. Detroit offers Richardson easy QB1 upside with a ceiling much closer to the top Fantasy scorers at the position and a floor that puts him in the back-end QB1 range thanks to his rushing floor. Richardson is the most athletic prospect to ever enter the NFL at QB, and it's not often you see a quarterback turn a scramble into an 80-yard touchdown run against SEC defenders, but he did exactly that in 2022.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
C.J. Stroud
QB
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 218 lbs
Stroud is the forgotten prospect in this quarterback class, and reports have surfaced about him scoring low in the S2 test designed to project a QB's mental processing, but the tape I've seen tells a different story. Stroud is poised in the pocket, accurate at all three levels and keeps the passing game in rhythm. He even had a ceiling game in the playoffs against the best defense -- Georgia -- where he showed the ability to create out of structure and use his legs to create yards. Stroud is more likely to be a pocket passer at the next level, and the big question will be how do we separate his skill set from the talent around him. In this class alone, Stroud's two offensive tackles are likely top-35 picks, his wide receiver will be a Round 1 pick after playing with two more receivers drafted in Round 1 last year and one who will be a top-five pick in next year's class. Joining the Colts will put Stroud behind a coach who can develop him with three talented pieces around him in Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor and Alec Pierce.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
Will Anderson Jr.
EDGE
Alabama
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 243 lbs
The Seahawks get the best pass rusher in the draft although Alabama didn't always use him to rush the passer -- sometimes aligning him as a 4i. Seattle will get him on the edge early and often and he'll improve a D/ST that showed some signs of life in 2022 with rookie playmaker Tariq Woolen at cornerback. Bobby Wagner has returned to Seattle this offseason and the improved front seven vaults the Seahawks into the back-end D/ST1 mix.
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Mock Trade from
Detroit Lions
Round 1 - Pick 6
Jalen Carter
DL
Georgia
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 314 lbs
Jalen Carter is the best player in this draft class -- a dominant force who Georgia coaches call unblockable in practice when he wants to be. So long as the character concerns check out, the Cardinals acquire something they desperately need -- consistent disruption on the defensive line. Carter is the best defensive player on film to come out of those dominant Georgia defenses of the past two seasons. The Cardinals DST is still one you'll want to avoid in Fantasy as it undergoes a total rebuild.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Illinois
• Soph
• 6'0"
/ 185 lbs
One of the Raiders' biggest issues for the last decade has been their pass coverage, and when you play in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and now a Sean Payton-coached passing attack, coverage is king. Witherspoon is one of two cornerbacks in this class who showed me the stickiest coverage ability in man coverage at all three levels of the field (DJ Turner was the other). Although he's not the ideal size, he makes up for it with his physicality in the run game. With Witherspoon in the mix, the Raiders are at least in the DST conversation on a matchup basis.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Texas
• Soph
• 5'11"
/ 215 lbs
One thing I've gathered doing draft interviews this April is that NFL general managers are lot higher on where Robinson belongs in this draft than the mainstream. Atlanta doesn't strike me as a destination that will let arguably the best pure non-quarterback prospect in the class (besides Carter) slide just because he plays running back. This is also arguably the perfect landing spot for a generational talent like Robinson. Atlanta generated one of the highest-graded (per PFF) rushing attacks in the NFL with Arthur Smith's diverse usage of personnel, pre-snap motion and run scheme in 2022. He did it with an offensive line that improved over time and middling talent rookie RB Tyler Allgeier ultimately leading the backfield. Robinson adds explosive cuts, more straight-line speed and a better passing profile to that same scheme. He has easy RB1 upside with the Falcons and could ultimately be a top-five RB in this situation.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 313 lbs
My best guess is that the Bears felt comfortable moving back eight spots from first overall because of how many offensive tackle options would be available to them. Here, they get their first pick at OT and they go with a player whose frame and dimensions are similar to the offensive tackle (Braxton Jones) this regime successfully handpicked last draft. Upgrading Justin Fields' protection is paramount and adding Johnson gives him a better chance of getting through 2023 healthy after missing time in 2022. Johnson should also upgrade Fields' production in the pass game.
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
Georgia
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 311 lbs
Jones might have more upside than any offensive tackle in this class and that's what makes the Eagles such a perfect fit. He'll have time to develop behind Lane Johnson before ultimately taking over when Lane retires. The rich keep getting richer and the Eagles offensive line -- already one of the NFL's five best -- gets more insurance to keep the engine running.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Northwestern
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 313 lbs
The Titans need to revamp their offensive line for whatever their future is on offense -- with or without Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Skoronski is the best overall offensive lineman in the class. Some speculate he doesn't have the arm length to play tackle at the NFL level, but the Titans will benefit from a major upgrade at guard too. If Henry sticks, this is a bolster for his redraft value and he is likely to remain a back-end RB1.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
TCU
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 215 lbs
The Texans have their pick of the wide receivers to pair with Levis, and Johnston is the best fit based both on how his skill set fits with Levis and the current Texans depth chart at wide receiver. With John Metchie coming back and Robert Woods in the mix, Houston could benefit from a prototypical X receiver like Johnston who has the stride length to chew up ground on the vertical plane. This makes him a great fit for Levis' arm strength and the two could immediately create a rapport with that starting during rookie OTAs. This would be a great landing spot for Johnston from a target volume upside standpoint and he could sneak into the back-end WR2 range.
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Mock Trade from
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'0"
/ 197 lbs
JSN is my WR1 in this class and my favorite fit for him from a Fantasy standpoint is in Green Bay. For starters, the Packers system lends itself to a slot receiver like JSN who gets open better than anyone in this class and tested (3 cone, short shuttle) as an elite change of direction athlete in the likes of a Julian Edelman (95th, 97th percentile change of direction testing), only much bigger. An inexperienced QB like Jordan Love will benefit from a slot receiver who can present him easy layup passes by winning immediately with separation. In this system with Love at QB, JSN has 100+ target upside as a rookie and would be my rookie WR1 in redraft.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Tyree Wilson
EDGE
Texas Tech
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 275 lbs
Wilson might not be the most exciting pick from a Fantasy D/ST standpoint, but his ability to set the edge plus his length and violent hand usage make him a perfect fit for a Bill Belichick defense. Belichick more than others emphasizes the importance of edge-setting end men on the line of scrimmage and Wilson can add that. Production is still not a major part of Wilson's profile, at least not yet in the passing game, but his presence will help the run defense on Day 1. The Patriots are already a top-12 D/ST and this will solidify that.
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Mock Trade from
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 15
Tennessee
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 333 lbs
The Jets were able to keep a first-round pick in the Aaron Rodgers deal, and now it's about upgrading his protection. With uncertainties at both tackle spots, Wright -- who projects as a right tackle after dominating there but struggling the year before on the left side -- provides one of the best bets to immediately translate at the NFL level. Wright should be a Day 1 starter and an upgrade for the pass and run game.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Oregon
• Soph
• 6'1"
/ 205 lbs
Gonzalez looks like he was built in a lab with long arms, height, straight-line speed and smooth movement skills in and out of his breaks. There shouldn't be an area of the field he won't find success in, but the coverage and ball skills weren't there like some of the other corners in this class at the collegiate level. The draft is all about projection and Gonzalez can easily be a CB1 in the NFL. This is a great value pick for the Commanders.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Dawand Jones
OT
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'8"
/ 375 lbs
The Steelers are reportedly in the pre-draft mix to move up for an offensive lineman, but in this draft they stay put and land one of the largest prospects in this class. Jones has elite length, size and the ability to translate as an Orlando Brown Jr. type winner at offensive tackle with quicker feet than you would expect for someone his size. Jones will have to keep the weight off and the Steelers are great organization to mold him. Jones' addition will be an immediate upgrade for Najee Harris in the run game more than anything else.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Penn State
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 194 lbs
The Lions were in the mix to grab a cornerback with their first pick earlier this round, but after trading future draft capital to go quarterback instead, they still end up with one of the top four corners here. Porter is a rare athlete at the position with true 6-foot-4 size and long arms. He's also unique in the style he plays -- heavy press man coverage and often press-jam instead of press-bail technique. This is exactly why I love him for Detroit's aggressive man-coverage heavy defensive system. The Lions were a sneaky D/ST play at times in 2022 and will become a more consistent weekly play with Porter's addition.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Alabama
• Soph
• 6'0"
/ 203 lbs
The Bucs were hoping to upgrade offensive line here, but with the run of players selected up front before them, they go with the best player available in Branch. After mastering Nick Saban's defense, Branch should translate immediately, whether that be over the slot as a corner, in the deep half or in the box. The Bucs D/ST was already in the mix for every week starter honors and this pick will solidify that.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Joe Tippmann
IOL
Wisconsin
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 313 lbs
After grabbing their pass rusher earlier this round, the Seahawks begin the process of upgrading their interior offensive line. Last draft, Seattle grabbed two offensive tackles early and they were immediate upgrades. A case can be made the entire interior group can be upgraded. I went with Tippman here because he's an annual Bruce Feldman Freak List member with 6-foot-6 length, the ability to squat 600+ pounds and movement skills that make him look like a tight end in space. Tippman has technical issues that need resolving and can be top-heavy in space, but he fits the zone blocking scheme the Seahawks run a lot better than O'Cyrus Torrence or Steve Avila despite those linemen being higher on my overall board. Scheme fit is everything and Tippman will be a weapon for Kenneth Walker.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Zay Flowers
WR
Boston College
• Soph
• 5'9"
/ 175 lbs
Flowers to the Chargers is my favorite potential fit in all of Day 1. They need vertical speed to open up the offense and take advantage of Justin Herbert's arm talent, but winning vertically at the NFL level is not directly correlated to your 40-yard dash time. Flowers' ability to win on the vertical plane is tied in part to his straight-line speed but more so to his ability to set up vertical routes with double moves, head shakes and the ability to start-and-stop his momentum after cuts. From my film study, no WR was open more on tape on the vertical plane in situations where the QB didn't see him or didn't have time to make the throw than Flowers other than maybe Tyler Scott. Flowers' ability to win with a speed release against press coverage is Antonio Brown-esque and will help him keep position versatility at the NFL level. From a Fantasy standpoint, Flowers is more of a Dynasty play with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams still commanding a heavy target share, but his speed and explosiveness could make him a Fantasy fit right away.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
USC
• Soph
• 5'11"
/ 175 lbs
With the decision to sign OBJ, the Ravens seem more likely to retain Lamar Jackson and they also seem more committed than ever to building out talent at wide receiver with new coordinator Todd Monken expected to take a more pass-heavy approach. Addison won at all three levels at college and while I'm not sold on how his vertical game will translate vs. NFL cornerbacks, I know he can win with separation early and often. This will provide Lamar with easy lay up throws and keep him in rhythm. Addison will immediately assume the slot role with OBJ and Rashod Bateman on the outside and he could end up leading all receivers not named Mark Andrews in targets. Target Addison in full-point PPR leagues if Baltimore grabs him.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Tennessee
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 221 lbs
Hooker finds his way into Round 1 and joins a Vikings team that seems destined to move on from Kirk Cousins sooner rather than later. Kevin O'Connell is an excellent head coach to pair Hooker with and this landing spot allows him to avoid any pressure in his recovery from an ACL. Hooker won't be likely to make an impact in 2023 Fantasy leagues, but he becomes an incredibly intriguing Dynasty option with Justin Jefferson locked in and in his prime.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Lukas Van Ness
EDGE
Iowa
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 272 lbs
Van Ness slides in this draft based on how the board unfolds, but Jacksonville doesn't hesitate to add the project pick who should immediately slide in as a physical edge setter and high-end run defender given his lengthy frame and strong, sturdy base. I have questions about Van Ness' long-term pass rush upside, but the Jaguars have time to mold him behind some already productive edge rushers in Josh Allen and last year's first overall pick Travon Walker. Both Walker and Van Ness can kick inside on passing downs so picking Van Ness here isn't as redundant as it might seem on the surface.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Deonte Banks
CB
Maryland
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 200 lbs
The Giants stay put at No. 25 and one of the premier four cornerbacks in this draft falls to them in Banks. When looking at Banks' profile from a production, film and athletic projection standpoint, there's not much to be concerned about. The only gripe I had watching Banks was his upside at the catch point from a ball skills standpoint but that can be improved with NFL-caliber coaching. Because Banks is not as much of a ball hawk as Emmanuel Forbes or other cornerbacks in this range, this shouldn't boost the Giants D/ST as much as it otherwise would.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Utah
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 240 lbs
Kincaid is the best pass weapon in the draft at tight end save for maybe Luke Musgrave (only if Musgrave reaches his ceiling). Watching Kincaid is incredibly fun. He works back to every pass and is a hands catcher. Once he secures the ball, something he always does by the way -- this is not a tight end who will have any drop issues -- Kincaid is explosive after the catch. He operates like a 240-pound wide receiver and will provide Dallas with a better post-catch version of Dalton Schultz, who they lost in free agency this offseason. Kincaid can be a TE1 in Fantasy right away with this fit and there's upside for him to finish in the top six at the position after seeing what a lesser talent like Schultz was able to accomplish.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
O'Cyrus Torrence
IOL
Florida
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 347 lbs
The biggest missing component I saw with the Bills offense in 2022 was their inability to establish physicality at the point of attack. Torrence is the perfect prospect to change that. He's the strongest interior offensive lineman at the point of attack in this class and I love how he bet on himself -- transferring to Florida -- and looked every bit as dominant against SEC level competition. Torrence was the only interior offensive lineman who gave Jalen Carter even an ounce of trouble (and he actually won their matchup overall) this season on film and that speaks volumes. James Cook gets a major upgrade with this news and should find himself in the back-end RB2 priority range.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
Alabama
• Soph
• 5'9"
/ 200 lbs
The Bengals may or may not hang on to Joe Mixon, but after losing Samaje Perine in free agency, they need an upgrade. I would love to see them go in a different direction adding speed, acceleration and a pass-catching profile like Gibbs. Although I don't see the Alvin Kamara comps some have levied on Gibbs, he may have more raw acceleration and that makes him a perfect weapon in the pass game for a quarterback like Joe Burrow who gets through his progressions lightning fast. Gibbs has 60-catch potential as early as Year 1 in this offense after Mixon racked up 60 last season despite sharing work with Perine.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Myles Murphy
EDGE
Clemson
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 270 lbs
Murphy is another Planet Theory winner with a crazy combination of length, size and speed. He's just 21 years old and has shown flashes on film, but right now he mostly wins with the same speed to power move up the pass rushing arc. He joins an excellent team when it comes to developing pass rushers and he can learn behind Cameron Jordan. The Saints become a back-end DST1 with this addition.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Nolan Smith
EDGE
Georgia
• Soph
• 6'2"
/ 238 lbs
The Eagles can't pass up the 240-pound athlete with nearly 4.4 flat speed who dominated as a run defender in space and showed flashes of being an elite pass rusher at the next level with the right coaching. Smith is built in the mold of Haason Reddick who broke out as one of the NFL's best pass rushers with the Eagles despite being undersized by traditional NFL standards. This helps solidify the Eagles as one of the top if not the best DST to invest in for the 2023 season.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Oregon State
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 253 lbs
The Chiefs surprise the world by not only passing on wide receiver but also passing on Michael Mayer to draft Musgrave instead at tight end. Musgrave's Senior Bowl tape is among the best I've seen movement skills wise of any tight end since Rob Gronkowski. His ability to separate from linebackers and safeties on the vertical plane is unmatched by anyone in this class or several before it. This is the exact skill set Andy Reid will unlock and it will begin immediately with 12 personnel and two tight end sets that feature Musgrave and Kelce running routes at the second and third levels of the defense. He won't find immediate consistency from a Fantasy standpoint on the Chiefs, but will be an excellent Dynasty investment as Kelce reaches his final years in Kansas City.
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