Why would the Hawks trade Al Horford? (Getty)
Why would the Hawks trade Al Horford? (Getty)

In a wide-ranging predictions piece on Grantland, Zach Lowe writes that Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford will be included in trade talks this season. Lowe describes why a deal is unlikely, and yet it is still reportedly very much a possibility. 

It happened in stealth mode last season, when the Hawks reached out to a select group and made it known that Horford could be had for the right price — including an unprotected 2014 first-round pick, per several league sources. Nothing materialized, and Horford is ready to return from another torn pectoral muscle.

A healthy Horford is a top-20 player on a below-market contract that runs through 2015-16 — long enough that some team could talk itself into gambling on him. He could net a hefty return for the Hawks, who have been happily skipping down the “pretty good with cap room” path under Danny Ferry.

They have worked to stay competitive, in hopes that they’ll eventually sign a star into that cap space and vault from “pretty good” to something better.

Stars have rebuffed Atlanta’s money, and the ugly Luol Deng controversy did not enhance the team’s appeal. New owners over the last half-decade have green-lit some aggressive teardowns.

The Hawks don’t have a new owner yet, and as long as Mike Budenholzer is running the front office, they are unlikely to make any trade that represents a present-day step back.

If the ownership situation changes before the deadline, there’s no telling what stance the Hawks might take with Horford, Jeff Teague, or anyone else. Teams will inquire about Horford either way.

via 33 Crazy Predictions for the NBA Season «.

So here's a question. 

"What?!" 

It seems crazy on the surface. From the time Horford started to hit his prime in 2009 through 2013 (before last year was cut short due to a shoulder injury), Horford was 19th in the league in Win Shares per Basketball-Reference.com, 26th in PER, 17th in rebound percentage, 18th in TrueShooting Percentage, a versatile offensive beast and a multifaceted defender for a perennial playoff team. He is a two-time All-Star and despite having little to no household name value, is one of the most valuable players in the league, a center that can stretch the floor, defend in the post, shoot, pass, and causes no issues for his teammates. 

So why on Earth would the Hawks think about letting him go? 

Well... that's complicated. 

Let's pretend for a moment that we live in a world where the Hawks aren't completely paralyzed by the Danny Ferry situation, which they are. By all accounts, Ferry remains on indefinite leave, and with Mike Budenholzer preoccupied by actually coaching the team, it's difficult to see much of anything going on until ownership or management get some resolution of the situation. But like I said, let's pretend that isn't the case. 

The Hawks have been at the periphery of trade talks since Ferry took over and started to gut the one-and-done team built around Joe Johnson, Horford, and Josh Smith. He opted for draft picks, flexibility, and value contracts. They've managed to put together a playoff team anyway, having the best of both worlds. Yet Atlanta has consistently been mentioned as "looking to make a move" or "could potentially blow things up" talks, as if the entire time management was holding it's thumb sideways like Joaquin Phoenix in "Gladiator." 

It all comes down to the superstar question, and that's really where Horford is most relevant. Horford is an incredibly gifted, understated, All-Star-worthy player. Joakim Noah is loud, physical, and explosive. He's the Keith Richards to Horford's Mick Jagger. But Horford is the one with the frontman quality skillset. Still, the question of whether you can win a title with Horford as your best player is a legitimate one. He's not a 30-points-a-night scorer, not a dominant defensive force. 

So if you're looking to acquire that star, and you're not going to find your way to the luck the Spurs did with Tim Duncan, is to leverage your assets. And Horford is their best asset. 

Bu you can't offer Al Horford to the Philadelphia 76ers for their No. 1 pick. Boston might think about it a good long time, but their odds aren't great for a top-three finish. Orlando, on the other hand, is a very intriguing idea. They want to win now, they're tired of rebuilding, and could offer young talent and the pick if they were to get desperate. It just seem unlikely. And again, of course, you're still putting your fate in the hands of the lottery (until it gets changed). 

And so the other option is to try and trade for a star player the way the Rockets did with James Harden. But even after trading for Harden and adding Dwight Howard, Houston hasn't become a major contender. That's the unfortunate reality of "win and stay competitive and then trade for a star," the Morey plan. You're usually going to get a star that isn't actually a franchise-changing force. 

Typically, cap space is the biggest reason for such a move if you're not going to get a star. Trade Horford, get back salary relief, mid-first picks, and quality depth. The problem? Atlanta already has all that. They've got just $34 million tied up for next season, though they have to re-sign Paul Millsap and/or DeMarre Carroll. And Horford's contract expires in 2016, meaning you set up for the big TV deal payday with just $20 million tied up. They have quality depth with young players they've drafted, shooters, forwards, defenders, the works. Oh, and they have draft picks still coming from Brooklyn. So they have everything they would get in a value return deal with Horford. 

And then there's the final piece, which is that if you do get that guy who is good enough to be the best player on a championship team, you need a No.2 option. You need the other guy. The Wade (or later, Bosh), the Pippen, the Parker (or Duncan or Manu or Kawhi). Horford could definitely be that guy. So it makes more sense to keep Horford by whatever device they can and use him as a luring point. 

But then, they tried to lure a star this summer, with a talented, fun team that showed a lot in the first round and still couldn't get it done. Then, of course, they were rocked with the racism scandal, which may or may not have lasting impacts on players' willingness to sign there. Such is maybe the biggest problem. The Hawks have a good team with a great player and still couldn't add a marquee guy. 

So if you can't trade Horford for what you need, it doesn't help you to trade him for what you can, and you can't use him to sign a major upgrade. So yeah, Horford will likely continue to be involved in trade talks, because trying to figure out how to work him into a championship picture is one of the more complicated issues in basketball.