Preseason action is in full swing, and the 2018-19 NBA regular season is now less than two weeks away. That means it's time to make predictions -- for the playoffs, awards, everything. And just like fans and writers, NBA general managers get in on the action every year with their annual survey.
This season's version -- courtesy of NBA.com -- has just been released, so let's take a look at some of the most notable picks from the GMs.
NBA champion
Of course, the first one to take note of is their title prediction. Unsurprisingly, they've once again tapped the Warriors to take home the Larry O'Brien trophy at the end of the season. Like just about everyone else, the consensus from the GMs is that the Dubs will three-peat, which is hard to argue with considering the level of talent they have on that roster.
Which team will win the 2019 NBA Finals? | Percent of votes |
|---|---|
Golden State Warriors | 87% |
7% | |
7% |
Sticking with questions about teams, there was also wide agreement from the GMs about which one had the best offseason: the Los Angeles Lakers. Seventy percent of GMs said that the Lakers made the best moves this offseason, 80 percent said that the Lakers will be the most improved team this season, and a whopping 97 percent said that LeBron James was the offseason acquisition who will have the most impact. (The lone vote not for James went to the Raptors' Kawhi Leonard.)
Most Valuable Player
Moving on to the player awards, the GMs are not as aligned in their pick for Most Valuable Player. Nine different players received votes for MVP from the GMs, and four different players got at least at 10 percent of the votes. But in the end, it was James who the majority of GMs selected to win the award.
When you're thinking about who is going to win the MVP award prior to the season, it's never a bad idea to go with the best player in the world. Plus, considering James' move to the Lakers, and the big improvement he'll likely lead them to, it would be an almost perfect story for him to win MVP.
Who will win the 2018-19 MVP? | Percent of votes |
|---|---|
LeBron James | 30% |
Kevin Durant | 27% |
Anthony Davis | 17% |
James Harden | 10% |
Rookie of the Year
Speaking of player awards, let's take a look at the NBA GMs' thoughts on the rookie class. By a pretty wide margin, the league's front office leaders see the Mavericks' Luka Doncic as the Rookie of the Year. The Slovenian sensation garnered 43 percent of the vote, with no one else getting more than 17 percent. This is in sharp contrast to the annual rookie survey, where Doncic only got nine percent of the vote for ROY from his fellow players.
Who will win the 2018-19 Rookie of the Year? | Percent of votes |
|---|---|
Luka Doncic | 43% |
Marvin Bagley III | 17% |
Wendell Carter Jr. | 17% |
Deandre Ayton | 13% |
Given Doncic's accomplishments and experience overseas, it's no surprise that GMs see him being a step ahead of his fellow rookies this season. However, they don't see that trend continuing on down the line. That isn't to say they think Doncic will regress or anything, just that other rookies will eventually surpass him. Or at least a good number of them do. When asked which rookie will be the best player in five years, Deandre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr. were tied for the lead with 27 percent of the vote, compared to just 17 percent for Doncic.
Best head coach
As we move on to the coaches section, we'll find one of the GMs' most interesting responses. When asked who was the best coach in the NBA, 47 percent of GMs said Brad Stevens. The Celtics coach didn't receive a single vote on this question last season, yet easily surpassed Gregg Popovich, who had received the most votes every single season since 2012. Of course, Popovich was still highly ranked, finishing second in the voting with 30 percent of the vote. Still, that's a huge drop-off from last season, when he got 82 percent.
It's hard to argue with Stevens' success -- he's increased his win total in each of his first five seasons with the Celtics -- but it's still a surprise that there was such a big jump in his reputation around the league. Again, no GM thought he was the best coach this time last year, and now nearly half of them do. That's pretty impressive.
Who is the best head coach in the NBA? | Percent of votes |
|---|---|
Brad Stevens | 47% |
Gregg Popovich | 30% |
Mike D'Antoni | 7% |
Steve Kerr | 7% |
Rule changes
Lastly, we'll take a look at a miscellaneous question which had some pretty interesting results. Every year, GMs are asked about which rule needs to change. And with a question that broad, there are always all sorts of answers, as was once again the case this time around, with 16 different responses.
The winner, though, was playoff seeding. Nearly 20 percent of GMs believe the league should revamp the playoff structure to seed teams 1-16 regardless of conference.
What rule needs to change? | Percent of votes |
|---|---|
Playoff seeding (1-16) | 18% |
Draft Lottery odds/system | 14% |
Schedule (fewer games) | 11% |
This is the second season in a row that playoff seeding has led this question, which shows how big of a topic it's becoming. With this much support around front offices, it will be interesting to see if the league eventually adopts this format -- something that they've already done in the WNBA.