For the first time in several years, the Knicks are entering an offseason without a defined goal. The past two summers have been dedicated solely to the pursuit of Kevin Durant, and prior to that, putting a quick winner around Kristaps Porzingis. But there is no unicorn at the end of this offseason's rainbow. The Knicks, for the moment, are a lottery team, and barring an extremely unlikely development, that isn't changing in the immediate future. For once, they have to build as a normal team would: slowly, without a visible endpoint.
Leon Rose has been tasked with navigating that uncertainty after being named Knicks president in March. It is up to him to put his stamp on the franchise as they seek a path back to contention. So how should they do that? Let's dive into what the Knicks already have in order to determine where they are going.
Existing talent
Only two current Knicks stand out as definitive long-term keepers. RJ Barrett has earned that distinction through his draft position alone. While the No. 3 overall pick was inconsistent as a rookie, the highs were promising enough to guarantee him a place atop New York's long-term pecking order. Mitchell Robinson came with no such guarantees, but so thoroughly outplayed his draft position (36th overall pick in 2018) that he's sticking around as well. Robinson broke the NBA's field goal percentage record by shooting 74.2 percent this season, and has stood out as among the NBA's best shot-blockers through two years.
New York's other lottery picks are in a more precarious position. Kevin Knox has simply not been an NBA-caliber player through two seasons, shooting a paltry 36.7 percent from the field without taking advantage of his physical gifts to play much defense. Dennis Smith Jr. wasn't much better, and while Frank Ntilikina's defense will keep him in the NBA no matter what he does offensively, his limitations as a scorer remain troubling. The Knicks have no compelling reason to dump any of them, but that doesn't mean they'll keep them, either. Should the right offer come along, none of these players should be considered safe.
The Knicks have always been good at uncovering diamonds in the rough, and while Robinson is their only real gem on that front, they do have a few younger players worth retaining. Allonzo Trier has given the Knicks relatively stable scoring as a bigger point guard, and Damyean Dotson has potential as a 3-and-D wing. Both will be free agents this offseason, but neither should garner offers big enough to draw them away.
As far as veterans go, the Knicks have little worth mentioning. Julius Randle is the only one of note under contract for next season, and the team is reportedly willing to deal him. Their other older players are notable only in the structure of their contracts, which we will discuss shortly.
If Robinson and Barrett are the only incumbents assured a place on next season's roster, it would behoove the Knicks to construct that roster with their limitations in mind. Neither are particularly strong 3-point shooters, yet they'll both need teammates who can provide space to maximize their offensive arsenals. While Barrett handles the ball well for a wing, neither he nor Robinson have displayed much as passers, so playmaking is a need as well. Veteran leadership and perimeter defense are musts as well.
The coaching search
Despite their lofty ambitions, the Knicks have largely ignored the trappings of big-market wealth in recent years. Rather than pursuing an experienced basketball executive to run the team, they landed on Rose, building on the trend of successful agents-turned-GMs that teams like the Lakers and Warriors have won with. Their coaching searches have displayed similar restraint. The Knicks have had four permanent head coaches since Mike D'Antoni resigned in 2012. One (Mike Woodson) was an assistant promoted internally. Another (Derek Fisher) had no coaching experience. Two others (Jeff Hornacek and David Fizdale) had been fired after brief stints in the Western Conference. All four failed in New York. Now, the pendulum appears to be swinging back toward big names.
Multiple reports have pegged former Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau as the early favorite for the Knicks job. Thibodeau has the longest track record of any candidate, and he has Knicks ties having served on the staff of both Jeff Van Gundy and Don Cheney, but his developmental track record leaves quite a bit to be desired. Andrew Wiggins floundered under his watch in Minnesota, and Karl-Anthony Towns failed to grow into even an adequate defender despite Thibodeau's sterling record with big men. His penchant for overplaying starters poses risks in the load-management era. All five of his starters during the 2017-18 season finished in the top 37 in the NBA in terms of minutes per game, with three (Wiggins, Towns and Jimmy Butler) finishing 13th or higher.
Interim coach Mike Miller falls on the other end of the spectrum. No Knick averaged even 33 minutes per game after he took over, and a number of young players made meaningful strides under his guidance. His lack of experience won't exactly help New York's rebranding efforts, though, which would be a major selling point for former Brooklyn Nets coach Kenny Atkinson. His developmental bonafides are well known. He turned D'Angelo Russell into an All-Star, transformed fringe players like Joe Harris and Spencer Dinwiddie into quality starters and ultimately made the Nets appealing enough to entice Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the sort of free agents the Knicks would one day like to attract.
A number of other names are likely to make their way into the search at some point. Van Gundy and former Knicks point guard Mark Jackson stand out as likely interviews, thanks to their histories with the team. But the eventual head coach will probably come from that first group of three candidates.
Finances and free agency
The Knicks couldn't have picked a better time to display rare financial prudence. While few of Steve Mills' 2019 signings panned out, he had the foresight to guarantee very little of their money for the 2020-21 season. Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson, Wayne Ellington, Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock can all be jettisoned with very little dead money leftover. If the Knicks were to strip their roster down to the bare bones, they could enter the 2020 offseason with only around $57 million committed to players.
Below is the Knicks' potential cap sheet, with numbers coming from Spotrac.
Julius Randle | $18,900,000 |
RJ Barrett | $8,231,760 |
| Joakim Noah (dead money) | $6,431,667 |
Frank Ntilikina | $6,176,578 |
Dennis Smith Jr. | $5,686,677 |
Kevin Knox | $4,588,680 |
Mitchell Robinson | $1,663,861 |
Ignas Brazdeikis | $1,517,981 |
Taj Gibson (dead money) | $1,000,000 |
Wayne Ellington (dead money) | $1,000,000 |
Elfrid Payton (dead money) | $1,000,000 |
Reggie Bullock (dead money) | $1,000,000 |
Total | $57,197,204 |
They have their draft picks to account for as well, and these calculations might change should the Knicks decide to keep any of the veterans they have on non-guaranteed deals, but given the state of the league, they'd be wise not to. The best-case scenario for the salary cap in light of the impact that the coronavirus has had on the NBA's finances is that it remains steady. The worst-case scenario is a significant cap decline. With so little money available, teams that have some will likely be able to get an incredible bang for their buck. Even if the cap were to drop, the Knicks have so little money committed that there is virtually no scenario in which they enter the 2020 offseason without a boatload of cap space.
That space will have value beyond free agency. If the cap declines, theoretically that means that the luxury tax will as well. Thrifty teams are going to look to their more flexible counterparts to take on money in an effort to avoid it. With so few teams having space, the Knicks will be able to charge a premium to trade partners that might want to rent it. While the Knicks have avoided trading their space for draft capital in the past, the Rose administration could prove more amenable to the practice.
Of course, there is always the possibility that Rose proves impatient and decides to use his space on immediate upgrades. Chris Paul is a rumored target, and the small-market Thunder, fresh off years in the luxury tax, would likely be intrigued by the idea of getting off the final two expensive years of his contract. While Paul's contract is too onerous for the Knicks to wisely absorb, the concept of bringing in some meaningful veterans with their space, both in the name of grooming their youngsters and repairing their reputation around the NBA, makes some sense as long as it doesn't interfere with the long-term growth of those already in place.
The Knicks still have plenty of problems to contend with, but all things considered, they are one of the few teams positioned to take real advantage of the pandemic from a financial perspective. Their cap space will grant Rose a rare degree of control over the offseason.
Draft capital
While Mills gets credit for clearing New York's books, Phil Jackson deserves some praise for breaking Knicks tradition and flatly refusing to trade his own first-round picks. Between 2004 and 2016, the Knicks used their own first-round pick only six times. But after their final obligation was met, the Knicks achieved pick-neutrality in 2017. Mills added two future first-rounders to New York's coffers in the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and Rose's Marcus Morris deadline deal got them another one from the Clippers. That positions the Knicks extremely well in the 2020 NBA Draft.
While they began the season as a candidate for the NBA's worst record, Miller's impressive 17-27 record as interim coach somewhat hurt New York's lottery odds. They are currently in the sixth slot for August's NBA Draft lottery, giving them a nine percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 37 percent chance at getting into the top four. They have around a 50 percent chance at landing at either No. 6 or No. 7, though, so for the sake of ease, that's where we'll assume they'll fall. The pick they got from the Clippers is currently slated for No. 27.
Their primary need with those picks is a lead ball-handler to ease Barrett's load and shooting to give him more space. Rose reportedly has his eye on LaMelo Ball, but should Ball be selected before the Knicks pick, this draft doesn't lack point guards. French star Killian Hayes and New York native Cole Anthony (son of former Knick Greg Anthony) will likely draw consideration.
But if ever there were a year for the Knicks to trade up, it would be this one. The lack of a consensus top prospect should make the lottery winners more amenable to a deal, and that extra capital is burning a hole in Rose's pocket. Even if the Knicks fall in the lottery they shouldn't encounter much difficulty in landing their preferred target provided they are willing to pay to do so. No prospect in this class is untradable.
What would an ideal offseason look like?
For all the bellyaching about image and reputation, there is simply no universe in which the 2020-21 Knicks win on a meaningful level. Even a major addition like Paul would leave the Knicks a star or two short of real contention. What matters is supplementing the existing young core and positioning it to win two or three years down the line.
In that vein, Ball's fit is pretty questionable. His star power would play well in New York, but without a proven 3-point shot, he may end up making life more difficult for Barrett and Robinson. Hayes presents similar problems. This doesn't necessarily preclude them from becoming valuable Knicks, but it suggests that the Knicks would be better served standing pat should they land the No. 6 or No. 7 pick. Shooters like Anthony, Tyrell Terry or Devin Vassel would all be easy fits.
Point guards aren't exactly in short supply. While Paul's addition would be shortsighted, the Knicks should look into younger options on the free-agent market. Fred VanVleet would be an ideal two-way addition if the Knicks could pry him away from the Raptors, and while he is nominally a shooting guard, Bogdan Bogdanovic's offensive game is tailor-made to fit alongside Barrett's. Adding established talent makes sense. The Knicks can't tank forever. But the goal is not to win the 2020 championship, and their additions need to reflect that.
That's not to say older players don't have a role in their perfect offseason. They just need to be cost-friendly ones. A reunion with Carmelo Anthony makes plenty of sense in rehabilitating their image. Other big names that could potentially be available cheaply like DeMarcus Cousins or Rajon Rondo could work as well. The Knicks do have plenty of work to do when it comes to fixing their reputation among stars, but the easiest way to do that is to win. Box office draws should be considered a luxury, not a necessity.
The same should be true of their next coach. His primary job is going to be developing Barrett, Robinson and this season's draft picks. While Atkinson and Miller lack Thibodeau's playoff track record, their history in developing talent makes them significantly better fits. Atkinson's experience makes him a better choice, but Miller proved himself a worthy consolation prize this season.
Slow and steady wins the race here. The Knicks just spent years essentially getting themselves back to neutral in terms of picks and finances. Blowing that in one offseason in pursuit of a quick playoff berth would be senseless. The ideal Knicks offseason is one that recognizes their biggest moves are likely still a few years away.