Now that the NBA Draft order is settled and the Orlando Magic have landed the No. 1 overall pick, the conversation around who should be the top selection can get a bit more nuanced. Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren are regarded as the frontrunners, and any of the three could have gone first overall depending on who ended up with the first pick.
But with Orlando in particular, Smith makes the most sense. The Magic ranked 28th in 3-point shooting percentage at 33.1% in the regular season and could lose their top two outside threats in Gary Harris and Mo Bamba during free agency. With 23-year-old center Wendell Carter Jr. coming off his best season yet and under contract for four more seasons, it appears Smith would be a logical partner in the frontcourt.
A case can be made for Holmgren, since he's a better rim protector than Smith and shot-blocking isn't a particular strength for Carter. But in today's NBA, offense must be the priority, and Smith's outside shooting touch helps him stand out in that regard.
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The 6-foot-10 forward hit 42% of his 3-point attempts while taking 5.5 per game as a freshman at Auburn and averaging 16.9 points per game. He's also got plenty of defensive upside as a rangy and athletic player who should be able to hold his own against a diverse array of opponents as his frame fills out and he adjusts to the speed and physicality of the pro game.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Jabari Smith
PF
Auburn
• Soph
• 6'10"
/ 220 lbs
Smith's uniqueness as a 6-10 shooter helped him stand out in college basketball. But that skill will be defended more competently at the next level, which will force him to tighten his handle and hone his shot-creation acumen. Defensively, opponents will test the theory that he can guard 1-5 by trying to exploit his slender frame on the block while testing his quickness on the outside. Ultimately, though, all the tools are there, and he would be a solid fit in Orlando.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Gonzaga
• Fr
• 7'1"
/ 208 lbs
Given the makeup of OKC's roster, Holmgren looks like the right call. The concerns over his physicality and ability to handle the rigors of the NBA with a lanky 7-foot frame are legitimate. But the Thunder are in a total rebuild and can afford him some time to develop.
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Round 1- Pick 3
Duke
• Soph
• 6'10"
/ 250 lbs
In my pre-lottery mock draft, Banchero went to Houston at No. 1 overall. While he slips to No. 3 in this post-lottery version, he still lands with the Rockets, who feel like the right fit. Banchero would pair well with Jalen Green. His floor is as a solid all-around NBA four, which makes him a low-risk pick and no-brainer if available at No. 3.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
AJ Griffin
SF
Duke
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 220 lbs
With the Kings deeply invested in De'Aaron Fox and also developing last year's No. 9 overall pick Davion Mitchell in the back court, they should take a hard look at Griffin as an off-ball threat whose elite 3-point shooting would make him a nice compliment to those two on the wing. With Fox entering his sixth season, the Kings need to capitalize on his prime. Griffin can help as a 3-and-D weapon immediately and develop into more over time.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Iowa
• Soph
• 6'8"
/ 225 lbs
Murray is a logical fit next to Cade Cunningham, a tremendous value if he slips to Detroit. if you throw out age (he'll be 22 on opening night) and just look at the game, there is a good chance Murray could be the first player from this draft class to make an NBA All-Star game. He's coming from a program that hasn't produced a first round draft pick since 1998, and considering the quantum leap he made as a sophomore, it's tantalizing to consider what additional elements of Murray's game can be unlocked by an NBA staff. He's well-equipped to guard all positions and is an offensive maestro who is especially effective in transition.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Jaden Ivey
SG
Purdue
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 195 lbs
The Pacers already have tons invested in their back court. But if Ivey is there at No. 6, they might have to take him. The way he gets downhill and finishes in the paint and at the rim with a combination of athleticism and touch is reminiscent of Ja Morant. While Ivey lacks Morant's distribution skills and is more of a shooting guard, the upshot is that he has the potential to be a better defender. That potential didn't manifest itself in college, but if an NBA team can unlock Ivey's defensive capabilities, they may find themselves with an All-Star.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Kentucky
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 208 lbs
Sharpe has no college film to evaluate after enrolling at Kentucky in for the spring semester but not suiting up. He's billed as an athletic shooting guard with the explosiveness to create shots and finish at the rim, and he wound up as the No. 3 ranked prospect in the 2021 recruiting class. That slotting put him ahead of players like Jabari Smith, Jalen Duren and AJ Griffin. It's hard to see a prospect with those credentials slipping much further in this draft.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 8
Ochai Agbaji
SG
Kansas
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 215 lbs
Agbaji could make an NBA team better immediately as a plug and play 3-and-D wing. Considering the Pelicans are already a playoff team, he makes sense here, even though he's an older prospect. Solid NBA starter may be his ceiling, but the development he showed from his junior to senior season showcased his relentless work ethic and capacity for improvement.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Baylor
• Soph
• 6'8"
/ 230 lbs
Sochan is a nimble power forward who is comfortable shooting from the outside and guarding players at any position. Assuming he improves on the 29.6% 3-point mark he posted in one season at Baylor, Sochan should play in the league for a long time.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Arizona
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 210 lbs
Mathurin's length and ability to rise up to get a look late in the shot clock should serve him well at the next level. The jury is out on his defensive ceiling, but he has the tools and talent to become a solid two-way player over time.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Of the international prospects in this class, Jovic seems like the safest bet. He's already adept at scoring from all three levels and shows signs of the defensive competency you'd hope for with an offensively gifted forward.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 12
Tari Eason
PF
LSU
• Soph
• 6'8"
/ 215 lbs
Eason enjoyed a breakout sophomore season after transferring to LSU from Cincinnati. He can score at all three levels and is a high-upside, versatile defender. His college coaches employed him as a sixth man, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Eason cast in the same role at the next level. At 6-8, he's like a perimeter-oriented Montrezl Harrell in terms of motor, grit and the type of role he may play.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
At 6-9 and with the coordination and flow of a guard, Dieng is among the most intriguing prospects in this class. The French prospect enjoyed a nice finish to his season with the New Zealand Breakers of the NBL but will likely face a long road toward NBA proficiency.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Ohio State
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 180 lbs
Branham's offensive efficiency stood out during his one season with Ohio State as he hit 53% of his 2-pointers and 41.6% of his 3-pointers. He showed big-time scoring ability while earning Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors and could compare reasonably well to Malik Monk at the next level if he continues to prioritize his outside shot.
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From
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 1 - Pick 15
Duke
• Soph
• 7'0"
/ 240 lbs
The market for centers who don't shoot 3-pointers is lean in today's NBA. Williams is good enough as a shot blocker, rebounder and finisher to find a role, though. The 7-footer can bruise with anyone and is also active enough to hold his own in pick-and-roll situations.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Kentucky
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 195 lbs
Washington can play on or off the ball and is an intense defender, though at 6-foot-3 he may be too small to contest the shots of taller NBA wings. Nonetheless, he's a versatile guard with the doggedness and intangibles to find a role in the league.
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From
Brooklyn Nets
Round 1 - Pick 17
Memphis
• Soph
• 6'10"
/ 250 lbs
This is a considerable promotion for Duren from my last mock but still shy of lottery range, which is where many analysts expect him to be chosen. At minimum, he'll be a rim-running center who blocks shots and plays defense. Ultimately, if he is going to reach his potential, his overall offensive repertoire and comfort with the ball will need to develop immensely beyond what he showed in his lone season at Memphis.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Beauchamp will turn 22 just before the NBA season after taking an unorthodox path to the G-League Ignite program. But at the end of the day, he's a physically gifted wing who can become an NBA starter if his 3-point shot continues developing.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Daniels served as the primary facilitator for G-League Ignite, averaging 4.4 assists per game in his 14 appearances with the program. His outside shot is a work in progress, but for a franchise with the leash to develop a raw playmaker, Daniels is worth taking a flyer on.
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From
Toronto Raptors
Round 1 - Pick 20
Montero, who has been playing for Overtime Elite, looks the part of a future starting NBA point guard offensively with his ability to distribute the basketball and high-level handle. He put those traits on display in a Nike Hoop Summit exhibition vs. some of college basketball's top incoming freshmen. The questions here are whether his offense is good enough to outweigh some potential defensive limitations that come with being 6-2 and slender.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Baylor
• Soph
• 6'7"
/ 205 lbs
Brown was an elite role player in his lone season at Baylor as he showed excellent offensive efficiency as a secondary option. His athleticism and defensive versatility should help him carve out a long — though perhaps not All-Star caliber — NBA career.
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From
Utah Jazz
Round 1 - Pick 22
Tennessee
• Fr
• 5'11"
/ 170 lbs
The knock on Chandler is that he's just 6-foot and slender, and to some draft heads that screams defensive liability. Sure, he can't guard bigger wings and post players, but Chandler's defense was arguably the most impressive aspect of his lone season at Tennessee. He can hold his own on that side and has plenty of offensive upside to warrant first-round consideration. He also logged the best vertical jump at the combine, which won't hurt his stock.
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From
Philadelphia 76ers
Round 1 - Pick 23
Josh Minott
PF
Memphis
• Soph
• 6'8"
/ 205 lbs
Minott didn't get to show his full game much in one season at Memphis as he came off the bench and fought for minutes on a talented roster. But at 6-8 and with a 7-foot wingspan, the versatile forward is oozing with upside.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Johnny Davis
SF
Wisconsin
• Soph
• 6'4"
/ 195 lbs
His 30.6% 3-point shooting mark as a sophomore might scare some scouts, but Davis basically ran the show for a Wisconsin team not exactly known for having a modern offensive philosophy. In the right system, Davis will shine as a two-way talent because of his defensive tenacity and bucket-getting prowess. Over time, he'll need to trade some of his mid-range attempts for 3-point shots if he wants to fit in the modern NBA as an off-ball guard.
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From
Boston Celtics
Round 1 - Pick 25
E.J. Liddell
PF
Ohio State
• Fr
• 6'6"
/ 240 lbs
Liddell is like a slightly more athletic version of third-year Celtics forward Grant Williams, who is playing a big role for Boston in the NBA Playoffs after he was taken with the No. 22 pick in 2019. He's got a stocky build reminiscent of a traditional post player but can shoot 3-pointers and is agile enough to hold his own as a versatile weapon in the NBA.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Blake Wesley
SG
Notre Dame
• Soph
• 6'3"
/ 185 lbs
Wesley can put his head down, get to the paint and collapse a defense with the best of them. With an athletic 6-5 frame, he played the role of bucket-getter for Notre Dame as a freshman. Wesley still has tons of room to improve as a shooter and facilitator. But his offensive upside is excellent and he's got the tools to thrive defensively.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Duke
• Soph
• 6'5"
/ 215 lbs
Moore could wind up as a steal and find himself in the running for NBA All-Rookie honors, depending on where he lands. He can guard multiple positions, is efficient offensively and continues to improve his outside shot. He may not be a superstar, but he's a solid value play in the later half of the first round who can contribute early in the right situation.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Kansas
• Soph
• 6'6"
/ 220 lbs
Braun faces a big decision on whether to return to Kansas and become a superstar and Big 12 Player of the Year candidate like Ochai Agbaji did last season. He's a dynamic forward who can guard 1-4, knock down 3-pointers and get to the basket. He's NBA ready now, but perhaps he could be a lottery pick after a full season in the college spotlight.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Hardy led G-League Ignite in scoring but did it on just 35.1% shooting in 12 games. The former No. 4 overall prospect from the 2021 recruiting class has plenty of upside, but it's going to take some risk-tolerance to use a first-round pick on him.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 30
Milw.
• Soph
• 6'9"
/ 220 lbs
If you've got some room for risk, Baldwin is a high-ceiling guy who is going to slip because of his rocky freshman season shooting the ball at Milwaukee. At 6-9, his long-term offensive upside is stellar. There are questions about his quickness and health, but he's certainly worth a look.
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