The old saying is it takes five years to evaluate a draft class, though I've always felt that's a little generous. Three years is usually enough time to give teams an idea of what they have. There are always exceptions, but after three years, the prospects should have separated themselves from the suspects.
With the (shortened) 2020 amateur draft set to take place next month, this is as good a time as any to go back five years and review the 2015 draft. That 2015 draft class has not yet produced a major award winner, but it did produce an MVP runner-up, a few World Series champions, and a handful of All-Star Game selections.
Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, is neither perfect nor the definitive stat to measure performance. It does work very well for an exercise like this though. So, with an assist from Baseball-Reference.com, let's review the 2015 draft class.
Top 10 players to date
The 2015 draft class is one of the weaker draft classes in recent memory. Only two 2015 draftees have amassed at least 10 WAR in their careers thus far -- at this time last year, five 2014 draftees reached 10 WAR -- and Alex Bregman is clearly the draft's best player. He has more career WAR than any other two 2015 draftees combined and the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 on the draft's WAR leaderboard is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 18.
Bregman, a former LSU Tiger, was viewed as the 2015 draft's safest pick because he has an outstanding approach and great baseball instincts, as well as Gold Glove defensive chops. With an assist to the juiced ball, Bregman has become a 40-homer guy, and he has considerably more walks (215) than strikeouts (168) the last two years. Of course, he's also an admitted cheater, and it's unclear how the sign-stealing affected his numbers. Either way, Bregman has been the most productive player in the 2015 draft by far.
The Astros, it should be noted, selected Bregman with the pick they received as compensation for failing to sign No. 1 pick Brady Aiken in 2014. The club found something they didn't like in Aiken's elbow during his pre-signing physical and the deal fell apart. Teams that fail to sign a high draft pick receive a compensation pick one slot later the following year. The Aiken compensation pick turned into Bregman.
Believe it or not, there was some thought whichever team drafted Paul DeJong would send him out as a catcher. He did not have a defined position at Illinois State and the tools suggested he could handle catching. Instead, the Cardinals worked with him at shortstop, and DeJong has turned himself into a legitimately excellent defender there. He's always had power -- only Bregman (99) has more career homers among 2015 draftees than DeJong (74) and Bregman has a big advantage in plate appearances (2,238 vs 1,597) -- and is now a quality two-way player at a key up-the-middle position. Heck of a find for the Cardinals in the fourth round.
In draft parlance, a "pop-up guy" is a player who has an enormous draft season and plays his way into the first round after going into the spring almost as an afterthought. Andrew Benintendi slugged .333 as a freshman at Arkansas in 2014 and he was so far off the radar that some teams didn't even realized he was draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2015. A monster sophomore season changed that and turned him into a pop-up guy. Benintendi hit .374/.488/.717 with the Razorbacks in 2015 and won the Golden Spikes Award as the best amateur player in the country. He's been good more than great with the Red Sox in his big-league career thus far, though he's still only 25. Benintendi has been good to date and he has a bright future ahead of him.
David Fletcher ranking fourth in WAR among 2015 draftees tells you all you need to know about the quality of the 2015 draft class. It is pretty, pretty weak. That's not meant as a knock on Fletcher! He's a quality super utility guy for the Angels who would start at a middle infield spot on many teams. Fletcher is a brilliant defender with elite bat-to-ball skills, though there's not much pop in his bat and his offensive ceiling is limited. The player he is right now is what the best-case scenario projected to be when he was coming out of Loyola Marymount. Any improvement is a bonus.
Two Cardinals in the top five makes 2015 a pretty good draft for St. Louis. Harrison Bader has been the club's most-of-the-time center fielder the last two years and he's flashed offensive potential while playing fantastic defense. During his college days at Florida, he always hit for average and showed power, but an aggressive approach cause him to slide down draft boards. That approach continues to hold him back now. He'll chase pitcher's pitches rather than wait until he gets something to drive. Bader has been a solid big leaguer to date thanks to his glove. The potential for more exists though.
Vanderbilt had three players selected in the first round in 2015 and Walker Buehler was the third of the three. His slight frame and draft year elbow woes caused Buehler to slide to the end of the first round and, sure enough, he had Tommy John surgery almost immediately after the draft. Since getting healthy though, he's been dominant at every level and he's since usurped Clayton Kershaw as the Dodgers' ace. Buehler stands out as the best pitcher of the 2015 draft class and, as long as he stays healthy, he could challenge Bregman for the title of best player in the draft. The upside is enormous.
It was a bit of a surprise when the Braves selected Mike Soroka in the first round on draft day 2015. An unconventional delivery and the fact he hails from an unconventional baseball locale (Calgary) created some skeptics, but Atlanta believed in him, and they've been rewarded with a ground ball heavy starter. In the year of the dinger, Soroka led baseball with 0.72 HR/9, and he did it as a rookie. He battled arm trouble throughout the minors, which slowed his climb up the ladder. Now that he's fully healthy, Soroka should soon establish himself as Atlanta's no-doubt ace.
The No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft never even played a game for the team that drafted him. The Diamondbacks shipped Dansby Swanson to the Braves in the ill-fated Shelby Miller trade six months after the draft. Swanson was not the consensus top prospect in the draft class -- that was current Rockies prospect Brendan Rodgers -- but he was a great college player at Vanderbilt who has gone on to become a solid big leaguer. Of course, teams are not looking for a "solid big leaguer" with the No. 1 pick in the draft. They want a star and Swanson has not become that. He turned only 26 in February though, so it could still happen.
Defensive concerns and the fact he didn't face great competition while at Maryland caused Brandon Lowe to be underrated heading into the 2015 draft. He always showed elite plate discipline and flashed power, two traits that were on fully display during his rookie season last year. Lowe has settled in nicely at second base and can also play the outfield, so while he's not a standout defender anywhere, he helps his team defensively with his versatility. The Rays knocked it out of the park with their third-round selection in 2015.
Ian Happ did everything he needed to do offensively prior to the draft. He raked at Cincinnati and against elite competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League, showing all the skills necessarily to become an impact hitter. Questions about his long-term defensive home weren't enough to keep him out of the top 10 picks. Happ has been up-and-down with the Cubs -- literally too, as he spent a good chunk of last season in Triple-A -- but the power is real and he's proven to be versatile. A great "tenth man," so to speak.
Two other 2015 draftees, Chris Paddack and Kevin Newman, have accrued at least 2.0 WAR in the big leagues. Paddack, an eighth-round pick of the Marlins who was traded to the Padres as a prospect, was at 2.7 WAR as a rookie last season. He'll soon be alongside Buehler and Soroka as the draft class' best pitchers. Newman made his MLB debut in 2018 before settling into a full-time role in 2019. He has 2.2 WAR in his career after being a first-round pick by the Pirates. Only six other 2015 draftees are over 1 WAR in their careers:
- Scott Kingery, Phillies: 1.7 WAR (2nd round, 48th overall)
- Trent Thornton, Astros: 1.7 WAR (5th round, 139th overall)
- Myles Straw, Astros: 1.2 WAR (12th round, 349th overall)
- Steven Duggar, Giants: 1.1 WAR (6th round, 186th overall)
- Jordan Hicks, Cardinals: 1.1 WAR (3rd round, 305th overall)
- Tyler Alexander, Tigers: 1.0 WAR (2nd round, 65th overall)
Hicks is a fascinating player development story. He sat in the low-90s at his Houston high school then began to touch the mid-to-upper 90s in pro ball as he matured. In short bursts as a reliever, he'll regularly top triple digits. Hicks has hit a bump in the road with Tommy John surgery but he is the best reliever to come out of the draft class, bar none.
Best picks after the 10th round
First-round picks get all the attention and understandably so, but late-round picks are often the difference between contenders and pretenders. The ability to find hidden gems and turn those late round picks into useful big league players -- even if they're middle relievers or bench players -- can make a huge difference in a pennant race. Here are the best players drafted after the 10th round in 2015, listed alphabetically.
Seth Brown, a product of NAIA baseball powerhouse Lewis-Clark State College in Idaho, is the stereotypical Athletics player. He has great plate discipline and some power, hammers pitchers of the opposite hand, and provides a little defensive versatility. In his case, he's a lefty swinger who punishes righties and can play first base and the outfield. Brown has always been old for his minor-league level but he did finish last year in the big leagues and had a productive 26-game stint with the A's (.293/.361/.453). He should see more playing time going forward.
It took a few years, but former UMass Lowell infielder Danny Mendick finally established himself as a bona fide big-league prospect two years ago, when he discovered some power in Double-A. He hit 14 homers in 2018 after hitting 17 from 2015-17, and he followed it up with 17 home runs in the minors in 2019. That earned Mendick a September call-up and gives him a chance to stick around as a utility player (or perhaps more) given his defensive versatility.
What do you do with a junior college outfielder with elite speed and great bat-to-ball skills? You move him to shortstop, of course. That's what the Astros did with Myles Straw, at least eventually. The former 12th-round pick won the minor-league batting title in 2016, the year after being drafted, and he's put himself in position to carve out a role as a high-end utility player who can impact the game in several different ways.
A few dozen players selected after the tenth round in 2015 have reached the big leagues but only a handful have produced positive WAR. Here are the most notable after Brown, Mendick, and Straw:
- Matt Beaty, Dodgers: 0.4 WAR (12th round, 372nd overall)
- Patrick Sandoval, Astros: 0.4 WAR (11th round, 319th overall)
- Cody Stashak, Twins: 0.4 WAR (13th round, 380th overall)
Beaty, a lefty platoon bat, and Stashak, a high strikeout reliever, will have an opportunity to carve out long-term roles once baseball returns. Sandoval has blossomed into a quality prospect with a chance to have a career near the middle of a big-league rotation. The Astros sent him to the AL West rival Angels in the Martin Maldonado trade in 2018.
Jury still out
Even though players are getting to the big leagues and having an impact quicker than ever before, there are several 2015 draftees who are either still developing in the minors or just now getting their feet wet in the majors. These players aren't busts. They're still developing. Here are five 2015 draftees who are on the cusp of making a name for themselves, listed alphabetically.
Known as Trent Clark at the time of the draft, Trent Grisham spun his wheels in the minors for several years -- he hit .233/.356/.337 in 107 games in Double-A as recently as 2018 -- before enjoying a breakout 2019 season. The breakout earned him his first taste of the big leagues which, unfortunately, led to his backbreaking error in the NL Wild Card Game. Grisham, a Texas high school product, seems to have finally struck a balance between disciplined and passive at the plate, and he'll get a chance to earn an everyday role with the Padres once baseball returns. He was acquired from the Brewers in this past offseason's Luis Urias trade.
The son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes, Ke'Bryan Hayes didn't get the memo that Triple-A used with the juiced ball last year. He slugged only 10 homers in 110 Triple-A games. Despite that, Hayes has a great approach and projects to be an above-average hitter, and he's always been a standout defender at third base, dating back to his time in the Texas prep ranks. Hayes legitimately might be the best defensive player at any position in the minors. He's certainly in the conversation. The Pirates put Hayes on their 40-man roster this past offseason and he's a consensus top-100 prospect. He is their third baseman of the future.
Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB.com all ranked Rodgers, not Bregman or Swanson, as the No. 1 prospect in the 2015 draft. He has consistently ranked among the best prospects in the game over the years -- Baseball America ranked him as one of the 40 best prospects in baseball every year since 2016 and one of the 23 best prospects every year since 2017 -- and Rodgers made his big-league debut last season. It didn't go well (.227/.272/.250) and it only lasted 25 games before he needed season-ending shoulder surgery, but Rodgers is still only 23, and the Florida high school product is still a big part of the long-term picture in Colorado.
Catchers, especially high school catchers, are notoriously slow to develop because the position comes with so much responsibility. Defensive work usually means offense gets put on the back burner in the low minors, then the guy has to play catch-up with the bat. Tyler Stephenson has steadily climbed the minor-league ladder with the Reds -- he had his best season last year, in his first taste of Double-A -- and he was added to the 40-man roster this past offseason. Some time in Triple-A will be necessary, but Stephenson is one of the game's top catching prospects, and he's not far away from helping Cincinnati.
The Astros held two of the top five picks in 2015. They used the No. 2 pick, the compensation pick for failing to sign Aiken in 2014, on Bregman. They used the No. 5 pick on Florida high schooler Kyle Tucker. Tucker has had several cups of coffee with Houston the last two years but has yet to carve out a full-time role. He's ranked as an elite prospect the last few years and he had a 30-30 season at Triple-A in 2019. Tucker has done just about everything he's needed to do in the minors. He's ready for an extended big league opportunity, and the impending free agencies of Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and George Springer could create it.
Biggest busts
Inevitably, some high 2015 draft picks simply have not worked out. That's baseball. Here are some of the most notable busts from the 2015 draft class.
Carson Fulmer was the second of three Vanderbilt players selected in the 2015 first round, sandwiched between Swanson and Buehler. His college track record was as good as it gets, but a small-ish frame and a maximum effort delivery created serious long-term questions. It was unclear whether Fulmer would hold up as a starter or ever have even average command. The White Sox have never shied away from unconventional deliveries (see: Chris Sale) and they fast-tracked Fulmer to the big leagues. He made his debut in June 2016 -- Fulmer was the first 2015 draftee to reach MLB -- but he has not had any success in any role at any level. Fulmer, now 26, has a career 6.56 ERA in 94 2/3 MLB innings and a career 5.01 ERA in 353 2/3 minor league innings. It would take a monumental mechanical overhaul for Fulmer to turn his career around.
Primarily a reliever at Illinois, there was some thought Tyler Jay could start because he had a deep arsenal and showed well during extended outings. The early returns were promising, but injuries and mechanical issues eventually forced a return to the bullpen, and Jay has not yet had consistent success in pro ball despite a wipeout slider. The Twins sent Jay to the Reds in a cash trade last June and he had a 3.86 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 60 2/3 Double-A innings in 2019. He has never pitched above Double-A and no longer appears on any prospect lists. I suppose Jay could still reach the big leagues because he's left-handed and breathing, but the Twins already gave up on him and he won't live up to the hype associated with his draft position.
The Rangers made Dillon Tate the first pitcher taken in the 2015 draft but they didn't hang on to him very long. Texas sent Tate to the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran trade at the 2017 deadline, and the Yankees then sent him to the Orioles in the Zack Britton trade at the 2018 deadline. Tate was always a bit of a project and he simply hasn't missed as any bats as expected in pro ball. The 26-year-old former UC Santa Barbara Gaucho made his MLB debut last season and it did not go well (15 runs in 21 innings), and he's now a full-time reliever who projects as more of a middle reliever or mop-up guy than a high-leverage option because he lacks an out-pitch. Tate may yet carve out a big-league career, but it's clear he won't live up to being the No. 4 pick in the draft.
The ones who got away
As always, many players who were drafted in 2015 did not sign professional contracts. They opted to go to college -- or return to college, in some cases -- and re-enter the draft in future years. And, inevitably, some of the players who did not sign in 2015 went on to become top prospects in future years. Here are the biggest names who did not sign in 2015.
Joey Bart was a considered a fifth to seventh-round talent out of his Georgia high school in 2015 but was seen as basically unsignable. He was strongly committed to Georgia Tech and everyone knew it. The Rays took a shot in the 27th round because hey, why not? Bart went to school, had a decorated career with the Yellow Jackets, and was the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft. He now ranks among the game's best prospect and is the heir apparent to Buster Posey behind the plate for the Giants.
Similar to Bart, Nick Madrigal was seen as a fifth- to seventh-round talent in 2015. His size -- Madrigal is listed at 5-foot-7 and 165 pounds to this day -- and a strong commitment to Oregon State dropped him into the 17th round, where the Indians rolled the dice. Madrigal was a beast at Oregon State and those size concerns did not stop the White Sox from making him the No. 4 pick in the 2018 draft. He reached Triple-A last year, in his first full pro season, and should be Chicago's starting second baseman before long.
A senior year growth spurt at his Florida high school wasn't enough to turn Shane McClanahan into a first-round prospect for the 2015 draft -- the various scouting publications had him as more of an eighth to tenth rounder -- so he instead followed through on his commitment to South Florida rather than sign with the Mets as a 26th-round pick. McClanahan was one of the hardest throwers in the 2018 draft class and that landed him in the supplemental first round (31st overall). Now with the Rays, McClanahan is a regular on top 100 prospects lists.
The Blue Jays rolled the dice in 2015. There were questions about whether Brady Singer, then a Florida high schooler, would sign, but they took him in the second round anyway. Singer rejected their offers and instead followed through on his commitment to Florida, where he became one of the top pitchers in the country. The Royals made him the 18th overall pick in the 2018 draft and he now ranks among the best pitching prospects in the game. Toronto received the 57th overall pick in 2016 as compensation for failing to sign Singer and they used it on outfielder J.B. Woodman, who does not rank among their top prospects.