The 2024 Major League Baseball season has arrived. This, of course, means that success or failure at the team level – the current standings and pennant races and all of that – takes primary focus. Unfurling at the same time are those very much related individual performances. Yes, the MVP and Cy Young derbies get most of that bandwidth, but let's not forget about veteran performers – many of whom are winding down their careers – closing in on milestones.
Each MLB season brings a new crop of aspiring history-makers, and the 2024 campaign is no exception. Let's have a look at the most notable of these benchmarks that might be reached at some point during this season. In thrilling numerical order!
3,000 strikeouts: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
The Dodger legend and future Hall of Famer is sitting on 2,944 career strikeouts. High-level mathematics reveals that he needs just 56 more to become the 20th pitcher ever to get 3,000 strikeouts. Normally, this would be an easy lift for Kershaw, but the 36-year-old lefty will be out until at least July or so after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. That makes this career benchmark a bit of an unknown for him. Assuming a full and on-time recovery, however, Kershaw should get those missing Ks.
3,000 innings pitched: Max Scherzer, Rangers
Since 1900, 114 pitchers have managed to work 3,000 or more innings, and Scherzer has a shot at becoming No. 115 in the upcoming season. The 39-year-old is presently at 2,834 2/3 innings for his career, which means he needs 165 1/3 to reach 3,000. He's no doubt capable of that, but let's note that the aging Scherzer hasn't reached that figure in a season since 2021.
2,000 hits: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
Goldbird, as this author insists upon calling him, continues to build his Cooperstown case. The next benchmark is 2,000 hits. It's not an especially exclusive club, as almost 300 others have gotten there, but it's notable just the same. Goldschmidt is 91 hits away, and assuming general health in 2024 he should get there with ease. In related matters, his still excellent batted-ball metrics portend a rebound season in 2024.
1,000 RBI: José Abreu, Astros; Manny Machado, Padres; Mike Trout, Angels; Anthony Rizzo, Yankees
Here's a crowded fray, and each is listed in order of proximity to the benchmark. Presently, a few more than 300 hitters have tallied more than 1,000 RBI, including a number of active players. Abreu needs 47 more ribbies to get there, and Machado is 53 away. As for Trout and Rizzo, they're 60 and 70 away, respectively.
500 doubles: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
A relatively modest 64 players have amassed 500 or more doubles for their careers, and Freeman – Frederico Two Bags for these purposes – should be next to join the fraternity. He's 27 away. He's been a doubles factory over the last two seasons, but in 2021 he racked up just 25 doubles. Assuming he plays something close to a full season, he should cross the threshold of note.
400 home runs: Mike Trout, Angels
Will Trout become the 59th member of the 400-homer guild? He needs 32 to gain admission. Really, it all depends on health. Last season injuries limited Trout to 82 games and 18 homers, but in 2022 he clouted 40 homers in just 119 games. A mostly healthy Trout makes it there, we'll say, but if his increasing penchant for injury costs him significant time it probably won't happen until 2025.
300 stolen bases: Jose Altuve, Astros; Trea Turner, Phillies
While the rules changes implemented last year figure to change things, this still isn't a steals-heavy era just yet. So Altuve's and Turner's career totals are even more impressive in that modern context. According to the inestimable Baseball-Reference, 169 speed merchants have registered 300 or more steals. Altuve needs just seven thefts to reach 300, while Turner is 40 away. That's a heavy lift for Turner, as just twice in parts of nine seasons has he topped 40 steals.
300 home runs: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; Anthony Rizzo, Yankees; José Abreu, Astros; Mookie Betts, Dodgers; Aaron Judge, Yankees
The 300-homer club includes 159 sluggers, and the three names above are primed to join them. McCutchen is coiled on 299, so he's all but a lock for getting 300 while in a Pirates uniform. Rizzo needs just five more, making him a similarly strong bet. Abreu is 39 from 300, and that's highly unlikely to happen this year. Betts needs 47 after homering in Korea. His career high is 39 set last season. Jumping to 47 is a big ask, but we'd never put any baseball thing beyond the reach of Mookie. Judge is 43 shy, and that's very much within his range provided he avoids major injury.
Top 10 all-time in strikeouts: Max Scherzer, Rangers
Here's a near-lock. Scherzer needs just five strikeouts to reach 3,372 for his career and pass Greg Maddux for 10th place on the all-time list. A vintage Scherzer campaign in which he goes comfortably past 200 strikeouts for the year would push him all the way up to seventh on the list.
Top five all-time in saves: Kenley Jansen, Red Sox; Craig Kimbrel, Orioles
Kimbrel with 417 career saves presently pins down eighth place on the career rankings for this category, and Jansen is a step ahead in seventh place with 420. Ahead of them are Billy Wagner with 422 and John Franco with 424. Each veteran closer is in line to get save opportunities, which means both should crack that top five in 2024.
Taking four different teams to the postseason: Bob Melvin, Giants
The Giants have been among the more active teams of the offseason, and as such they're hellbent on returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2021. Therein lies an opportunity for new manager Bob Melvin. Melvin has previously guided three different teams to the playoffs – the Diamondbacks, A's, and Padres – and the Giants present him the chance to make it four. As you might expect, that hasn't happened often. Only one manager, the recently retired Dusty Baker, has led five different franchises to the postseason, and just two others – Billy Martin and Davey Johnson – have taken four different clubs there. If the 2024 season goes as hoped in San Francisco, then Melvin will join their exclusive ranks.
Shohei Ohtani bonus round
Yes, we have to wedge the Dodgers' present DH and future starting pitcher in here. Ohtani won't be pitching in 2024 as he continues his recovery from elbow surgery. We know he's capable of raking even with a healing elbow, as he's done before, and we also know he's at the top of his offensive game in terms of both top-line stats and underlying metrics. On top of all that, Ohtani in 2024 won't be dealing with the mounting fatigue from pitching, so his full focus and energy will go toward crushing the baseball. With that in mind, a couple of marks to note going in:
- The Dodgers' franchise record for home runs in a season is Shawn Green's 49 in 2001.
- The single-season record for home runs by a primary DH – meaning at least 75% of games spent at DH for the season in question – belongs to David Ortiz of the Red Sox with 54 in 2006.
- The single-season record for home runs by a primary DH in the National League is 40 by Marcell Ozuna of the Braves in 2023.
With all those tantalizing possibilities laid out, let us now watch baseball in general and the milestoning of 2024 in particular.
