Major League Baseball's 2023 amateur draft will kick off on Sunday, July 9, right alongside the All-Star Break. The Pittsburgh Pirates, by virtue of winning MLB's first-ever draft lottery last winter, will make the No. 1 selection for the sixth time in franchise history.
The Pirates have previously used the top slot to add catcher/outfielder Henry Davis (2021), right-handers Gerrit Cole (2011), Bryan Bullington (2002), and Kris Benson (1996), as well as infielder Jeff King (1986).
What lucky player will join that group this summer? Let's dish on the candidates and why the Pirates might stray from expectations.
The candidates
As CBS Sports recently noted in our final pre-draft rankings, scouts and analysts within the industry consider this to be a five-player class at the top: LSU outfielder Dylan Crews and right-hander Paul Skenes; Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford; and prep outfielders Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. That isn't to write off the rest of the class -- there are tons of interesting players who could go on to have good careers -- but the expectation is that the Pirates will be choosing from this group of five when they make the No. 1 pick.
Here's the elevator pitch on each of the five. Do note that the players are presented in the same order they were ranked on our final pre-draft list.
- Dylan Crews, OF, LSU: Widely considered the best player in the class. He hits the ball hard and often and he commands the strike zone. That Crews performed well against the best competition on the college circuit provides teams with a sense of security about his profile.
- Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida: A lot of what we wrote above about Crews applies to Langford. He would be a quality No. 1 pick in most drafts.
- Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS (NC): Jenkins appears to be the industry's preference among the high-school outfielders because of his more certain offensive projections.
- Max Clark, CF, Franklin Community HS (IN): Often compared to Cubs prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. Clark is a surefire center fielder with legitimate offensive upside thanks to a fast bat and wheels.
- Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU: Skenes has elite arm strength and a swing-and-miss slider that helped him whiff 48% of the batters he faced in SEC play. Some scouts and analysts have concerns about his fastball's shape, however, even if he's still likely to go in the top three.
Again, you can read more in-depth reports on those players by clicking here.
The potential approaches
There are, essentially, two strategies forward for the Pirates. The first is to take the best player available. That would be Crews, provided Pittsburgh's front office and scouting department share the overall industry's evaluation.
The other strategy, which arguably should be employed only when there's not a clear-cut No. 1 player in the class, is the same portfolio approach that has been popularized by the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles. Essentially, it involves the team taking the "cheapest" of the top tier of players, and then redirecting their savings toward players who slip over signability concerns.
The Pirates themselves used that strategy in 2021 when they picked Davis. He subsequently received the fifth-highest signing bonus of the first round, which allowed the Pirates to splurge for Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White, and Bubba Chandler -- three other players who CBS Sports ranked inside the top 50.
Without having perfect knowledge of each prospect's signing bonus request, it's unclear who the Pirates would be more likely to take in his place. We will note that there have been persistent rumors about Clark being the potential Plan B, but those remain unfounded -- and likely will until draft night.
The mock
With all the above taken into consideration, here's our Mike Axisa's latest mock draft. As with his first one, you'll find him projecting Crews to the Pirates. Whether you agree with that forecast or not, it won't be much longer until the Pirates deliver their card and we find out the answer for good.