When the Eagles let go of Miles Sanders, they let a guy who touched the ball on 24.8% of their offensive plays walk out the door.
Don't expect one guy to fully replace him.
Or two.
Shockwaves were sent when a pair of reports from Philadelphia hinted at Kenneth Gainwell working as the No. 1 running back for the team, then Gainwell was held out of their first preseason game. But this smart analysis by PhillyVoice reporter Jimmy Kempski unraveled the mystery quite easily: Gainwell and teammate Boston Scott had experience in this offense and didn't need to play, whereas newcomers D'Andre Swift and (especially) Rashaad Penny needed some opportunities to get settled in.
Against the Ravens, Swift started but had just two touches -- a 2-yard run to the right tackle where he missed a chance to burst through a wide lane for a gain but may have been focused on the track of the play design, and then a run designed to hit between the tackles but Swift improvised by popping to his left and finding tons of room. He sprinted, took a hit, kept going and essentially got tackled as he hit the sideline. Oddly enough it was the play he didn't seemingly improvise in that cost him a chunk of yardage, but the play he won was an example of much of the good stuff Swift did in Detroit.
Penny's night was much more involved and not as good. He played 27 snaps into the middle of the second quarter, working with units piloted by both Marcus Mariota and Tanner McKee. On his very first run he seemed almost too patient with open space in front of him. He made a bad read on a pull lead run play late in the first quarter where he should have followed a lineman to the left edge but didn't, turning what might have been a 5-yard gain into a 1-yard loss. There were also a handful of runs where he didn't seem to fight for that extra yard or two, though that might have been a business decision seeing that this was preseason and the ultimate goal may have been just to get acclimated to playing tackle pro football again.
Penny wrapped the evening running the same pull lead run play to the right and did a better job following his blockers, ending his night with a 9-yard gain where he did bust his tail for extra yards.
What are the takeaways from the game? Nothing you didn't already know -- Swift is explosive, Penny is big and probably more powerful than the game suggests. He also has had good vision in the past. But it says a little something that Swift started, played six snaps and got outta there while Penny logged 27 official snaps and stayed in the backfield for all of them with the third-string quarterback.
Kempski added in the aforementioned story that "Ultimately, I believe that this will be a true committee approach." A theory he might agree with: Swift will be used whenever the Eagles want the defense to think a pass is coming, or whenever they play a slow defense. Penny will be used whenever the Eagles want to grind down the clock, power into the end zone or whenever they play a small defense. Gainwell is a backup to both but also someone the coaches could trust in the two-minute offense and even put on the field as a change-up to any of the roles Swift or Penny could play.
Just for fun, let's try applying this multi-pronged theory toward their first three matchups ... you know, for Fantasy purposes.
The Eagles open the season Week 1 at the Patriots, a team that has pretty routinely had a strong run defense with players who are disciplined all over the field. If they have a weakness, it could be among their safeties and linebackers in coverage -- perhaps that's a good week for Swift. Then the Vikings come to Philly in Week 2, a defense that has some suspect pieces in its front seven and may play plenty of man coverage. The case could be made for any Eagles running back to be useful in that matchup. The Eagles sail into Tampa Bay after that and face another tough run defense to go with a defense that traditionally plays a lot of zone coverage. That could make things a little tough on Swift but it's not like it'll be easier on Penny.
So if I had to handicap who would do well in the Eagles offense based on their first three opponents of the season I'd say ... Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Get the point?
Yes, Swift should have some favorable matchups in those games and in plenty more. That's why he's going earlier than the other Eagles running backs (FantasyPros PPR ADP of 68.5), but the odds of him coming up with the 16.4 touches per game Sanders had in this offense are as good as a three-day-old cheesesteak with wiz still being digestible. He may not often exceed the 10.5 touches per game he had last year in Motown.
Penny's outlook is more bleak. Getting wedged into a traditional powerback role with only a smattering of targets mixed in could work in some offenses, but not one with a big-time rushing quarterback (especially at the goal line). Philly running backs averaged 21.6 carries per game in 2022, about league average. That could dwindle in 2023 with Hurts continuing to be the focal point of the offense and two other backs taking away from Penny. His FantasyPros PPR ADP of 132.3 is far more manageable than Swift's, but I have yet to be in a draft where he lasts that long. Most people draft him as an early-season streamer around pick No. 100 overall. That's the earliest I'd take him.
As for Gainwell, maybe it's easy to say he's who you draft if you spend an earlier pick on Swift or Penny and just hope that at some point Gainwell actually becomes the Eagles' best back due to injuries or poor play from his backfield mates. It's not the worst idea since Swift has missed at least each of the past three seasons while Penny has played 28 of a possible 66 games over the last four years. The issue is actually having the patience to stash Gainwell and wait for something good to happen. That's why his FantasyPros PPR ADP is so ridiculous (194.5). I can be patient, so looking his way after Round 11 in deeper leagues isn't such a bad plan. He's my favorite Eagles running back to draft.
We'll see how the next few weeks shake out for Eagles rushers -- a lot can change between now and then. But what's not expected to change is their offensive focus on Hurts, which will, uh, hurt the upside for all their running backs.