Fantasy Baseball Today: Spring Training Updates include injuries, position battles, prospect hype, and more

Also, why Jackson Holliday is a viable sleeper with an ADP outside the top 200

31 days until Opening Day ... 

All I'm hoping for in the first week of Spring Training is for players to stay healthy. Anything more than that is gravy.

Let's talk gravy.

Alex Bregman made his Red Sox debut Sunday against the Blue Jays, and we saw a proof-of-concept for what his swing could be capable of at Fenway Park. Playing at JetBlue Park – which has identical dimension to Fenway, down to a replica Green Monster in left field – Bregman was 3-for-3 in his debut, hitting a high homer over the monster and banging a double off the top of it. It's just one game, but it's exactly what we wanted to see from Bregman, whose pull-heavy swing should give him plenty of opportunities to aim at the real Green Monster. 

I'm not moving him up in my rankings because of one game, but hey, gravy's gravy.

One guy I might be moving up in my rankings after one start is new Mets starter Clay Holmes. I've been pretty skeptical about Holmes' transition to the rotation, but I did note last week that if he could show an arsenal with more answers against left-handed bats, I'd be open-minded. And that's exactly what he showed in his spring debut Sunday. 

Specifically, he showed a full six-pitch mix, led as always by his elite sinker/sweeper combination. But his third-most used pitch was that new changeup, which he threw seven times, including five times to lefties. He also debuted a new cutter, which he threw exclusively against lefties, plus a four-seam fastball that he introduced last postseason, another option for opposite-handed hitters. 

Holmes did, of course, lose some velocity in the transition to the rotation. Pitching in a two-inning burst, he averaged 95 mph on his sinker, down 1.6 mph from last season. But the arsenal looks like a legitimate starter's arsenal – sinkers and sweepers and the occasional slider to righties, a formula we know works, and then a more varied and expanded arsenal against lefties as he tries to figure out what works.

Maybe none of it will. Maybe he won't be able to command the changeup or cutter – he threw just three of 10 in the strike zone total – or maybe the four-seamer just won't work as well as the sinker does and he just gets rocked by lefties. The sample size is certainly too small right now to make any judgments, and it won't be big enough to say with any confidence one way or another by the end of spring.

But Holmes showed what he needed to in this outing. I don't mean the results, though those were fine. It was the approach. Holmes needed to put in work to prove he could make this transition viable, and he definitely put in the work. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work; his current ADP of 287.2 in February NFBC drafts makes it a risk well worth taking now that we've got a sign of what the work he put in has led to. 

Below you'll find notes from the first past week of spring reports, including stuff we saw in the first full weekend of action across the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues. And every Monday between now and the end of spring, that's what the focus will be on – catching you up on every single bit of spring news you need to know before you draft. And on Fridays, we'll be going deeper into the spring storylines, trying to separate fact from fiction, and noise from signal, to figure out what should actually be changing in your drafts based on the spring.

In between, we'll have everything else you need to prepare for your upcoming Fantasy drafts. That's the plan here at Fantasy Baseball Today HQ, and if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, feel free to send them my way at Chris.Towers@paramount.com with the subject line "AskFBT." Now, let's get to what you need to know from around the league: 

Spring Roundup

Last week, I went through the types of stories I'm looking to learn from during the spring, and that's how we're going to break down the spring news every week. Starting, of course, with injuries:

Injury Updates

Rafael Devers (shoulders) has been limited in camp so far – Devers has been limited to some indoor batting practice sessions and has done a bit of light fielding work, but he is "not 100%" after spending the offseason rehabbing from injuries in both shoulders. Which, ironically, meant that Bregman's first appearance in a Red Sox uniform did come at third base – the position Devers has pretty emphatically stated belongs to him since Bregman's signing. It's not clear exactly how the Red Sox intend to handle this situation, but at this point, I'm still assuming Bregman will play second base and Devers will remain at third – though maybe the shoulders give everyone cover to have Devers at DH, which would have the knock-on effect of potentially opening a role on the Opening Day roster for Kristian Campbell, one of the team's top prospects, at second base. Yeah, there are some moving pieces here. 

Wyatt Langford (oblique) will be shut down for about a week – This one doesn't sound like it's too much of a concern right now, but … it's an oblique, during the first week of Spring Training, for a player whose price only continues to get more expensive with each passing day. Maybe this injury will serve as a corrective, but let's just hope the Rangers play it as safe as possible – oblique injuries have a nasty tendency to linger and recur. 

Felix Bautista (elbow) faced hitters for the first time Sunday – Bautista is coming back from two elbow surgeries in the past two years, including Tommy John surgery. We may not see him in Spring Training games for a few more weeks, though the expectation at this point is that he will be ready for Opening Day. 

James Wood is dealing with quad tendinitis – The Nationals are being cautious with their young star, and it sounds like this shouldn't be an issue before long. He returned to defensive drills Sunday and has been doing batting practice consistently, so hopefully he'll return to game action shortly. 

Freddie Freeman (ankle) should make his Cactus League debut this week – Freeman is recovering from surgery and has been brought along relatively slowly so far in camp. But every indication is he'll be ready for the Dodgers early Opening Day in Japan on March 18. There's some concern he'll run less coming off the surgery, which makes a return to his 23 steals from 2023 look extremely unlikely.  

Heliot Ramos has an oblique strain – Ramos, like Langford, will be shut down for about a week before ramping back up, but … it's an oblique, during the first week of Spring Training. The good news is that Ramos' price has more than enough room for him to get off to a slow start this spring without worrying too much about it. There's some upside here after he had 22 homers in 121 games and earned an All-Star nod in 2024. 

Clarke Schmidt is dealing with a back injury– The Yankees' rotation depth already took a hit with prospect Chase Hampton undergoing Tommy John surgery, but it sounds like there isn't much concern about Schmidt's status for Opening Day. Schmidt enjoyed an injury-marred breakout in 2024 and has some upside in Fantasy if he can get right.  

Brandon Nimmo (foot) isn't quite at full strength – Nimmo is expected to miss at least the first week or so of Grapefruit League action, and it's just a little bit concerning that he's still dealing with some pain here, given that an injury like plantar fasciitis doesn't seem likely to get better with more activity. Nimmo spent the offseason working on the foot, receiving treatment and a platelet-rich plasma injection, though it does seem like this will probably be something he has to manage all season. I'm not downgrading Nimmo from his very reasonable current price in the middle rounds, but I'm not exactly pushing him up my draft board right now, either. 

Spencer Horwitz (wrist) will miss 6-8 weeks – Horwitz was expected to serve as the Pirates primary first baseman after an offseason trade, but he had surgery two weeks ago and is very much in doubt for Opening Day, though not ruled out. He's a viable late-round option in mixed leagues, and there could be some sleeper appeal if this injury doesn't linger. 

Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) is very much in doubt for Opening Day – Stanton hasn't swung a bat in weeks and has no timetable for resuming baseball activities. He is dealing with tennis elbow in both arms, an injury he apparently also managed last season. Stanton looked like a good value even as a DH-only player, but unless you've got IL spots – always an issue even in the best of circumstances with Stanton – I think he might be off draft boards for now. 

Shohei Ohtani is throwing fastball-only bullpen sessions – It's going to be tough to juggle Ohtani's return to the mound, as the Dodgers have already said he won't pitch in the spring or go on a rehab assignment. So we won't see him until he makes his season debut as a pitcher, sometime in May if all goes according to plan. He feels overvalued in leagues where he is only available as a pitcher, as I wrote last week. 

Kutter Crawford (knee) might not be ready for Opening Day – Crawford is dealing with pain in the patellar tendon of his right knee, an injury that could cause him to open the season on the IL. He has been playing through the injury since his third start of last season, but he re-injured it during the offseason and has struggled to get past it. Brayan Bello is also behind schedule due to some shoulder soreness, though his chances of being ready for the start of the season look more promising. Crawford is a fringe Fantasy option at the best of times, so he's pretty easy to pass up on late in drafts, making him just an IL stash in most leagues. 

Lineup News/Position Battles

Jordan Westburg is focusing on third base this spring – Westburg will still occasionally get reps at second to stay fresh, but manager Brandon Hyde has told reporters this spring that third will be the focus for Westburg. That's not a big deal for Westburg, who already has eligibility at both second and third, but it does seem to suggest that Jackson Holliday has an open road to the starting lineup at second base. It also suggests that Coby Mayo is on the outside looking in, barring an injury to Westburg or Ryan Mountcastle at first base. It makes Holliday a viable sleeper with an ADP currently outside of the top 200 – and it makes Mayo just a bench stash unless something changes in the coming weeks. 

Hyeseong Kim will see some time in center field this spring – Kim is primarily a middle infielder by trade, but the Dodgers have two open spots in their lineup these days – at center field and second base. He's got the speed to handle center field and played a bit of outfield in Korea, so they might as well see what he can do out there. He has a chance to play pretty regularly and provide batting average and speed, but Kim is not at all guaranteed to play every day at this point and is just a late-round stash – and one I'm personally not all that excited about, honestly. It's easy enough to find speed these days that I don't think you need to chase likely fringe hitters like Kim. 

Luis Rengifo will play in all three outfield spots – With Mike Trout moving to right field full-time, the Angels are left with Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell as their likely best center field options, and neither seems ideal. But if Rengifo can handle center field capably, the whole roster starts to make a little more sense. He has only played 22 innings there in his career, but it's something to watch this spring. 

Jasson Dominguez could hit leadoff for the Yankees – Dominguez didn't love hitting leadoff when he did so in his minor-league career, but it might be the best thing for his Fantasy value. The Yankees are weighing the possibility of Dominguez hitting leadoff vs. Jazz Chisholm, Anthony Volpe, or Cody Bellinger, and they'll experiment with that throughout the spring. Dominguez strikes out a lot, but he might be a better choice for the leadoff spot than you might think – in addition to his solid speed, Dominguez has a very good 13% walk rate for his minor-league career. The potential for 90-plus runs at the top of the lineup could make Dominguez a very strong Fantasy contributor this season if he ends up there. 

Kyle Schwarber could see more time in the outfield this season – The Phillies are trying to get JT Realmuto some more time off this season by playing him at DH, which would almost certainly necessitate Schwarber seeing more time in the outfield after he played just five games there in 2024. He was primarily an outfielder until last season, but he enters the season with DH-only eligibility, so we'd love to see him get five appearances there relatively early on in the season. 

Jose A. Ferrer, Jorge Lopez, and Derek Law are all closer options for the Nationals – None are especially exciting options, with Lopez's 8.5 K/9 representing the best mark any of the trio managed in 2024. Lopez has some closing experience, while Ferrer has a high-90s fastball that should lead to more strikeout upside, so I'll root for the latter to get the job and show us something. Ferrer should be one of the last closer candidates drafted, while Lopez is just a late-round bench flier at this point. 

Mike Clevinger could close for the White Sox – I'm not sure how much this one matters, both because the White Sox don't figure to have many save chances and because Clevinger hasn't given us much reason to think he's a good major-league pitcher in several years. I supposed his stuff could play up in shorter outings, but I would prefer to have my save sources figured out before I roll the dice on this 34-year-old in this situation. 

Velocity Readings

Sandy Alcantara averaged 98.8 mph in his spring debut Sunday – It was just a one-inning stint for a guy who goes into every start looking to throw a complete game, so he was probably just airing it out. I'm not expecting Alcantara to average 99 mph with his fastball when he's starting in April or May. But the stuff looks all the way back, and that's the biggest thing we needed to see coming off Tommy John surgery. 

Triston McKenzie averaged 94.2 mph with his fastball in his spring debut – The highest he's ever averaged in a regular-season start is 94.5 mph, so this is notable. Again, it's a planned shorter outing, but for a guy with McKenzie's injury history, even touching 95 in a short outing is worth paying attention to. Injuries have derailed a once-promising career, but if McKenzie's fastball is playing up, that's especially important, given his relatively limited arsenal. He is suddenly a late-round name to watch the rest of spring. 

David Festa's velocity was up at least 1 mph – Despite a 4.90 ERA, Festa had some interesting moments as a rookie, so a jump in stuff would be pretty interesting. It's still mostly just a three-pitch mix – he mixed in a couple of cutters Sunday – so better stuff might be a necessity for him to be a viable major-leaguer. He looked very good in his spring debut, generating nine whiffs on 23 swings, three with each of his primary pitches. Festa is a late-round sleeper if he can earn a rotation spot. 

Casey Mize's velocity was up 1.4 mph on his fastball – Mize has never quite managed to live up to the top prospect hype, and he continued to put up pretty mediocre numbers last season even amid a velocity jump. Maybe another one will do the trick. I think the bigger issue is that he just hasn't figured out a good breaking ball to generate whiffs, but he did also introduce a sweeper in this outing, while also throwing a refined splitter that was up 4.1 mph. He remains very much a work in progress and not one who has shown enough at the MLB level to even be a late-round target in 12-team leagues. But we'll see how the development of his arsenal goes and whether he can sustain true high-90s velocity as the spring goes on and the outings get longer. 

Jhoan Duran's velocity was down from last spring – He was still averaging 98.9 mph, but that was down from 100.5 in his spring debut last season – and down nearly four mph from 2023. Duran can still be a nightmare for opposing hitters to pick up, but we saw a notable decline in effectiveness from him last season that I mostly chalked up to the injury that derailed the start of his season. If the velocity is down again, it becomes slightly harder to make that bullish case. 

Kenta Maeda's velocity was up 1.6-2 mph on all his pitches – This one probably doesn't matter. Maeda needs at least one injury to even sniff the rotation, in all likelihood. But for those of you in H2H points leagues, this is one to keep an eye on, because Maeda is RP eligible, and if he does manage to find his way back into the rotation and manages to be a viable starting pitcher, he could be pretty useful. I can hear you snickering from here, but his points per game over 32 starts would have made him the No. 11 RP in 2024. The bar for Fantasy relevance as a SPaRP can be that low. 

New Pitches

Grayson Rodriguez is bringing his sweeper back – In 2023, Rodriguez's sweeper had a .228 xwOBA against and a 34% whiff rate; when he replaced it with a slider in 2024, that pitch allowed a .340 xwOBA and had a 36.1% whiff rate. So, bringing it back seems like a smart move. Even if it doesn't supplant the slider – and it sounds like Rodriguez plans to throw both – it will give him another putaway pitch, and one that manages hard contact better. Seems like a win-win to me, and I hope it lights the path to breakout stardom for Rodriguez to walk down. 

Jackson Jobe is adding a curveball – Jobe pitched well in the minors last season, but his strikeout rate was surprisingly pedestrian. He noticed, too, and spent the offseason working to develop a curveball as a go-to swing-and-miss pitch. Jobe throws in the high-90s with his fastball, but his biggest calling card is his ability to generate outrageous amounts of spin with his breaking balls. Last year, his sweeper stopped generating whiffs, hence the desire to bring another pitch into the fold that can put batters away. Jobe has front-line potential, and if this curveball helps him unlock it, all the better. I expect his price to rise significantly with a good spring. 

Andres Muñoz's new changeup is getting a lot of hype – When you throw a two-plane slider and a 98-99 mph four-seamer and strike out one-third of opposing batters, it can be tempting to rest on your laurels. But Munoz isn't one to rest. This offseason, he worked on a spike-grip changeup and unveiled it during a bullpen session this week, leading fellow reliever Matt Brash – who has some nasty stuff of his own – to say, "That was the best pitch I have ever seen." And it was the first time Munoz had ever thrown it off a mound. It may have been a one-off; he may not even need another weapon. But given the response it generated, I think we're likely to see Munoz try it at least a few more times this spring.  

Andrew Painter added a changeup to round out his repertoire while recovering from Tommy John surgery – Painter nearly made it to the majors as a 19-year-old on the strength of his fastball, slider, and curveball combination. When he had Tommy John surgery in 2023, part of the process of working his way back included expanding the arsenal with a fourth pitch to round out the repertoire, and he has spent some time refining it this spring with Cole Hamels, a Phillies legend with a heck of a changeup of his own. Painter enters the season with muted hype because we likely won't see him in the majors until the summer as the team tries to manage his innings. But he's arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball – behind only Jobe and Roki Sasaki on most lists, if the latter qualifies – despite missing the past two seasons with injury, and he could absolutely make a huge impact as soon as he is deemed major-league ready. If you're looking for someone who could make a Paul Skenes-type impact in 2024, Painter could be the guy in the second half.

Prospects Gaining Hype

Chase Dollander could have a chance to crack the Rockies rotation – Dollander has only pitched 48 innings at Double-A, but he sure didn't look overmatched in his first pro season. And he's generating a ton of buzz in Rockies camp, and the Rockies are apparently giving him a chance to win a rotation job if he can run with it. Dollander's fastball is one of the best in the minors, and the hope is that his dominance with that pitch can help overcome the Coors Field of it all. I have my doubts that Dollander can ever be a Fantasy ace – there have only been five seasons in Rockies history with an ERA below 3.50 in at least 150 innings – but he also might be the most talented pitcher the Rockies have ever had, so maybe that history doesn't mean as much. A mid-3.00s ERA and a bunch of strikeouts could be realistic for Dollander, and it could be realistic as soon as this April. Stay tuned. 

Cole Young could have a chance to be the Mariners 2B – A sore throwing arm could be a hurdle, but it isn't expected to limit Young for more than a few days in camp – and anyway, veteran Jorge Polanco seems to be a bit further behind schedule after offseason surgery. But MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo tabbed Young as a less-obvious prospect who might have a chance to make the team out of spring. Young held his own at Double-A last season, hitting .271/.369/.390, and could provide a contact-forward bat on a team that needs all the offensive help they can get. He might even provide some much-needed athleticism, including plus defense at second base – though he is expected to be able to stick at shortstop in the long run. This feels like a bit of a long shot, but it's worth keeping an eye on reports out of Mariners camp because Polanco and Dylan Moore hardly seem like insurmountable obstacles of Young forces the issue.