For every action in nature, there is an equal and opposite reaction. So goes Newton's Third Law of Motion, and it applies to Fantasy rankings with this little adjustment: "For every player who moves up in the rankings, another player has to move down." Whether because of injuries or potential loss of jobs or some other factor, there are always going to be players who move down in the rankings during spring training, just as there will be those who move up. I wrote about five who have risen in my rankings since the start of spring, and now here are five who have fallen. That doesn't mean they can't rise once again, but I've had to dim my expectations of each of these players since I first made my rankings back in February:
1. Cody Bellinger -- From No. 13 to 18 overall
I had Bellinger as a borderline first-round pick coming into the spring, but I'll admit I was probably being a bit too optimistic about his recovery from shoulder surgery. Bellinger still isn't playing in games, and he only recently played defense in an intrasquad scrimmage in recent days. He's been limited to batting practice, as well, so he's still well behind schedule overall. Bellinger could get into games this week and have plenty of time to get up to speed for Opening Day, but this was a case where I just wasn't taking the risk into account in my initial rank, and his delayed timetable has driven that home. I still think Bellinger has the top-five potential he showed in his breakout 2019, and the fact that he sustained his plate discipline gains in 2020 is a reason for optimism. However, passing up on the likes of Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, or Manny Machado in the second round is just too much to justify with Bellinger's shoulder.
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2. James Karinchak -- From No. 134 to 188 overall
Karinchak walked consecutive hitters and threw nine straight balls at one point in a recent spring game, and while that isn't why I've moved him down, it does serve as a useful reminder that he's less of a sure thing to be a light's out closer than his draft price might indicate. However, the reason I've moved him down for now is that it seems like there are more questions about what his role will be than I expected. I thought Karinchak, who served as the primary setup man in 2020, would step into James Hand's departed ninth-inning role, but that isn't guaranteed at this point.
Emmanuel Clase, acquired in the Corey Kluber trade last offseason, has a chance to emerge as the closer, as does Nick Wittgren, who saved four games in 2019. Any of the three could conceivably hold down the job, and any of the three could be a very good Fantasy option, but Karinchak has the most upside thanks to his absurd strikeout rate -- 53 in 27 innings last season. However, until we get some clarity on the role, Karinchak belongs in the Devin Williams/Nick Anderson range.
3. Jarred Kelenic -- From No. 190 to 229 overall
Kelenic looked like he was going to either force the Mariners to call him up or face a very embarrassing situation to open the season with the rave reports he was drawing early in spring, but a Grade 2 adductor strain in his left knee probably pushes his timeline back. The injury is not a significant concern, but with no timetable for his recovery publicly available right now, we have to assume it will be at least a few weeks, possibly longer. Kelenic is arguably the top prospect in the game right now and could be a legitimate five-category contributor at his peak, but it looks like he'll have to be someone you stash to open the season. The fact that fellow prospect Taylor Trammell might be earning the open left field job in his own right may give Kelenic another roadblock.
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4. Nate Pearson -- From No. 228 to 286 overall
Pearson made it through one inning of one spring outing before suffering a groin injury, and while that isn't a serious injury -- he was able to play catch from 90 feet just two days later -- it may be enough to knock him out of contention for the Opening Day rotation. That was never guaranteed to begin after his struggles when he got the chance last season, but this makes it look very unlikely. And it's another injury for Pearson, who had a flexor strain in his right elbow that cost him five weeks in 2020 and missed most of the 2018 season with a fracture in his arm. Pearson has thrown just 141.1 innings since being a first-round pick in the 2017 draft. The stuff is major-league quality, but he needs to prove himself, and I'm expecting that to happen at the alternate site to open the season.
5. Daulton Varsho -- From No. 13 to No. 18 at C
Varsho has yo-yoed a bit in my rankings so far -- I dropped him outside of the top 20 at the position before a knee injury to Kole Calhoun potentially opened a hole in the outfield to open the season. Varsho is catcher eligible, but it seems like he'll likely get the majority of his playing time in the outfield, and it didn't look like there would be a spot for him with Ketel Marte transitioning to center field. However, with Calhoun recovering from surgery and Tim Locastro still not with the team following a COVID diagnosis, the door is open for Varsho. If Varsho has an everyday job locked up come Opening Day, he'll be inside of my top 10 at catcher because of his rare power/speed potential -- he has 18 homers and 21 steals in just 108 games at Triple-A. He's already moving back in the right direction.
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