The Liberty Flames aim to finish a dream season on Friday evening. Liberty is 12-0 overall and 8-0 in Conference USA action, with the Flames riding a school-record winning streak. On Friday, Liberty will face the New Mexico State Aggies in the 2023 Conference USA Championship Game in Lynchburg. Liberty is one of only five unbeaten programs in FBS, and the Flames own a win over New Mexico State earlier this season. The Aggies are 10-3 overall and 7-1 in conference action, with New Mexico State entering on an eight-game winning streak.
SportsLine consensus lists the Flames as 10.5-point favorites for this 7 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS Sports Network. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 57.5 in the latest New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds. Before making any Liberty vs. New Mexico State picks, check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 regular season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Liberty vs. New Mexico State and locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and betting lines for New Mexico State vs. Liberty:
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -10.5
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty over/under: 57.5 points
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty money line: Liberty -415, NMSU +321
- NMSU: The Aggies are 10-2-1 against the spread this season
- LIB: The Flames are 8-4 against the spread this season
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty picks: See picks at SportsLine
- New Mexico State vs. Liberty live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why New Mexico State can cover
New Mexico State's defense is playing at a high level. The Aggies are leading Conference USA in allowing only 19.7 points per game, and New Mexico State produced 31 sacks in 12 games. That ranked No. 2 in the conference, and the Aggies are in the top three of the conference in total defense (362.0 yards per game) and rushing defense (125.7 yards per game). New Mexico State is allowed fewer passing touchdowns (14) than any other team in Conference USA, and the Aggies are also fantastic on offense.
New Mexico State is in the top three of the conference in total yards (422.1 per game), yards per play (6.9) and rushing yards (205.8 per game) this season. The Aggies are No. 4 in the country with 5.8 yards per carry, and New Mexico State has 70 plays of at least 20 yards. New Mexico State is also converting more than 43% of third down chances this season, and the Aggies led the conference in converting 10 of 13 fourth-down opportunities. Finally, New Mexico State is one of only ten FBS programs averaging more than 200 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game, riding the talents of dynamic quarterback Diego Pavia. See which team to pick here.
Why Liberty can cover
The Flames are led by an elite offense, but Liberty's defense is also strong. The Flames have allowed only 21.7 points per game this season, including five games with 17 points allowed or fewer. Liberty also led Conference USA with 344.5 total yards allowed per game and 106.2 rushing yards allowed per game. The Flames also posted the conference's best marks in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.7) and interceptions (20), holding the line and allowing its dynamic offense to take over. Liberty finished the regular season at No. 6 in the country with 40.1 points per game, leading Conference USA in the process.
No program averaged more rushing yards (295.4 per game) than Liberty, headlined by a 441-yard effort in the regular season finale against UTEP. Liberty also led the country with 30 rushes of at least 20 yards, and the Flames generated 5.9 yards per carry. Overall, the Flames were in the top five of the country with 498.5 total yards per game, and Liberty averaged 7.0 yards per play this season. Liberty was one of only ten FBS programs to average more than 200 rushing yards and 200 passing yards per game, and the Flames allowed only nine sacks in 12 games. See which team to pick here.
How to make New Mexico State vs. Liberty picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 67 total points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Liberty vs. New Mexico State, and which side of the spread cashes in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's up well over $2,000 on top-rated college football picks since its inception, and find out.