We are done screaming at each other over which teams do and don't deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff. That time is gone. There's no more need for hypotheticals, whether sensible or not, because it's time to determine some winners on the field.
The first round of the first 12-team College Football Playoff begins on campus sites this weekend, as for the first time, home games will be part of the college football postseason. This will not only lead to an incredible atmosphere at each game but also present unique challenges for every team.
Instead of outdoor stadiums in warm-weather cities or domed stadiums shared equally by fans of both sides, we'll be dealing with the elements this weekend and mostly partisan crowds. Current forecasts suggest freezing cold temperatures for three of our games with possible snow in the forecast as well.
It should lead to some incredible football. Let's hope we can match it with some winning picks. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas
Full disclosure: This is the first-round game in which I have the least confidence. I can see this game going in any number of directions, from a Texas blowout victory to Clemson winning outright. Both of these teams have been inconsistent all season, and it's tough to know who will show up. In the end, I'm leaning in Clemson's direction, at least when it comes to the spread.
I have concerns about Quinn Ewers. He still looks to be dealing with the oblique injury he suffered earlier this season, and it's impacting his play, particularly in the red zone. He can't put the kind of velocity on the ball that's needed in that part of the field, and it's impacting Texas' ability to finish drives. In the first three games of the season, before Ewers was hurt, Texas averaged 5.44 points per red zone drive. In the eight games since his return, that number has dropped to 3.56.
Part of that is due to Texas' inability to run the ball this season, so it's possible a bit more Arch Manning at that end of the field could help, but Texas' run game being ineffective overall is another area that concerns me. The weakness of Clemson's defense this season has been stopping the run, where it ranks 76th in EPA per rush compared to 23rd in EPA per dropback.
Can Texas exploit that enough?
As for the Tigers offense, the concern is they're capable of a no-show. We saw it in losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina. The Texas defense has been phenomenal this year, and I expect it'll make life miserable for Clemson. But, in the end, I just don't have enough faith in the Longhorns offense to trust their ability to cover a double-digit spread. The Pick: Clemson +11.5 (-110)
(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State
The most interesting matchup of the first round, and not just because of what'll happen on the field. Call me crazy, but I don't think it's a great sign when Ohio State's athletic director is publicly asking Ohio State fans not to sell their tickets to Tennessee fans on the secondary market. We know fan morale in Columbus, Ohio, is low after the Michigan loss, so it remains to be seen what kind of atmosphere we get here.
As for the matchup, I smell a rock fight coming our way. Both teams have excellent defenses. Ohio State is first nationally in points allowed per possession (0.92) and Tennessee is right behind them in third (1.01). The key for both is their pass rush, as Ohio State ranks eighth in pressure rate while Tennessee is 11th. That's huge in this matchup because Ohio State is very banged up on the offensive line, while Tennessee's offensive line has had difficulty pass-blocking all season long.
I expect both Will Howard and Nico Iamaleava to be dealing with traffic in the pocket, and both teams will likely look to lean on their run games to slow those pass rushes down.
I think Ohio State wins more often than not because it's been much better finishing drives on offense than Tennessee has, but I don't think either team will look great on offense or be capable of pulling away from the other. The Pick: Under 47 (-110)
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football's bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.