There are few better feelings in Fantasy Baseball than absolutely nailing your draft picks after just a week, and if you took Shane Bieber in the middle rounds this season, you should probably feel pretty good right now. One of the few better feelings than that is hitting on an early-waiver add who turns into a star, and if you took the chance on Garrett Crochet after his first start, you're probably feeling great right now.
You know what can make those feelings even more fulfilling? If you can turn them into even better players via trade. Yep, we're already talking about selling high on two of the best stories of the first week of the season, because that's what we do here in the Fantasy Baseball world.
I do want to be clear, though: There's an emphasis on the second half of that "sell-high" phrase, because if you're going to be moving Bieber or Crochet, it needs to be a clear win for your team. You're sitting on found money here, and what you don't want to do is trade either Bieber or Crochet just because. It's possible the bottom is about to fall out for both of them, in which case, getting something for them would be a net-win, but you can say that about any player, and there's not much in either Bieber or Crochet's early-season profile that suggests an implosion is imminent.
So, what would a sell-high trade for either of them look like? Let's start with Bieber, who I moved into the top 30 of my starting pitcher rankings in my first big update of the season Wednesday afternoon. That's already pretty high, though maybe not high enough for some who might see Bieber's 0.00 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 12 innings and assume he's back to being the Cy Young contender we once knew. Those are the players you should be sending offers for Bieber to right now, of course.
Which is to say, no, I don't think Bieber is back to being one of the best pitchers in baseball again. I think he's clearly improved, as the offseason work he put in has his velocity up a bit in his first two starts – more so in the first than the second – and has his slider looking like a devastating weapon again. Bieber's changeup is also playing up, and he already has three strikeouts with the pitch, the most he has had in a season since he recorded six with the changeup in 2019. But Bieber's velocity is still well south of where it was at his best, and his curveball hasn't made the same kind of return to form that his slider has, and that was such a key for him at his best.
If you're going to move Bieber, I think it needs to be for a clear upgrade, someone in the top-24 range. That probably wouldn't be someone like Joe Musgrove, my SP24, but it might be someone like Jesus Luzardo, Bobby Miller, or Cole Ragans. You might not be able to move Bieber for either Ragans or Miller, given the hype they're carrying around with them these days, but you might be able to do it for Luzardo. And if you really want to shoot for the moon, go ask Kevin Gausman's manager if he'll do that swap straight up. Shoot your shot.
And here's one important thing to keep in mind with Bieber: Even if you buy the improvements he's shown, this is still a pitcher who missed several months in two of the past three seasons, first with a shoulder injury and then with a forearm strain last season. Which is to say, there are more ways that this could go wrong than just Bieber regressing.
Crochet is at once both a much more straightforward sell-high case and also a much more difficult one. We're talking about a pitcher who absolutely looks like an ace coming off a terrific start against the Braves Tuesday night, and he's sitting in the high-90s with his fastball, while also sporting massive extension, a nightmare for opposing hitters to try to deal with before they even begin to think about his terrific slider.
Crochet certainly passes the eye test, and it's entirely possible we're talking about the next Tarik Skubal or Cole Ragans. The problem is, it's a miniscule sample size, from a pitcher with a lengthy injury history who has thrown less than 100 innings since being drafted in 2020. Can he sustain this level of pitching after 50 innings? 100? Will the White Sox even let him reach 100 innings this season?
Further complicating matters is Crochet's status as a SPaRP, making him a potential cheat code in H2H points leagues if he can keep this up. I've moved him into the top 150 of my rankings already in both H2H and Roto, which is by far the biggest jump any player has made so far this season.
But it's pretty easy to see how things could blow up. This could be the next Kris Bubic, an April star whose breakout was derailed almost exactly a year ago by a torn ligament in his elbow. Crochet's history suggests there's a ton of injury risk, but there's also a ton of risk that he just won't be able to sustain this level of success – though I am more confident in him remaining very good than I am in him remaining healthy.
You can make a case that getting anything for a player with that kind of blowup potential could be worthwhile. Even someone relatively boring like Merrill Kelley or Mitch Keller. But, I'm going to be honest: Getting just Mitch Keller for Garret Crochet isn't going to get it done right now. You need to aim higher, probably in the top 30 of the SP ranks to trade someone with the kind of upside Crochet is showing right now. See if you can turn him into Dylan Cease or Tanner Bibee; or, if you're blessed with tons of depth at pitcher, even an injury stash like Walker Buehler could be worth the wait.
But you need to target someone with significant upside, is what I'm saying. Because Crochet has that in spades, and you don't have to move him. It has to be a significant win for your side to do it.
H2H Trade Values Chart
Roto Trade Values Chart
Rank | Player | Value | Eligible |
1 | Ronald Acuna | 55 | OF |
2 | Julio Rodriguez | 42 | OF |
3 | Bobby Witt | 41 | SS |
4 | Mookie Betts | 39 | 2B-OF-SS |
5 | Fernando Tatis | 38 | OF |
6 | Corbin Carroll | 38 | OF |
7 | Freddie Freeman | 34 | 1B |
8 | Kyle Tucker | 34 | OF |
9 | Spencer Strider | 34 | SP |
10 | Juan Soto | 34 | OF |
11 | Trea Turner | 33 | SS |
12 | Shohei Ohtani | 33 | DH-SP |
13 | Jose Ramirez | 33 | 3B-DH |
14 | Yordan Alvarez | 33 | DH-OF |
15 | Aaron Judge | 33 | DH-OF |
16 | Matt Olson | 30 | 1B |
17 | Corbin Burnes | 30 | SP |
18 | Bryce Harper | 29 | 1B-DH |
19 | Austin Riley | 29 | 3B |
20 | Rafael Devers | 28 | 3B |
21 | Pete Alonso | 28 | 1B |
22 | Francisco Lindor | 27 | SS |
23 | Ozzie Albies | 26 | 2B |
24 | Marcus Semien | 26 | 2B |
25 | Zack Wheeler | 26 | SP |
26 | Vladimir Guerrero | 25 | 1B-DH |
27 | Gunnar Henderson | 25 | 3B-SS |
28 | Elly De La Cruz | 25 | 3B-SS |
29 | Corey Seager | 25 | SS |
30 | Jose Altuve | 24 | 2B |
31 | Luis Robert | 24 | OF |
32 | Luis Castillo | 24 | SP |
33 | Kevin Gausman | 24 | SP |
34 | Pablo Lopez | 23 | SP |
35 | Bo Bichette | 23 | SS |
36 | Michael Harris | 22 | OF |
37 | Randy Arozarena | 22 | OF |
38 | Adolis Garcia | 22 | OF |
39 | Tarik Skubal | 22 | SP |
40 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 22 | SP |
41 | Zac Gallen | 21 | SP |
42 | C.J. Abrams | 21 | SS |
43 | Framber Valdez | 21 | SP |
44 | Tyler Glasnow | 21 | SP |
45 | Nico Hoerner | 20 | 2B-SS |
46 | George Kirby | 20 | SP |
47 | Logan Gilbert | 20 | SP |
48 | Nolan Jones | 20 | OF |
49 | Logan Webb | 20 | SP |
50 | Jazz Chisholm | 20 | OF |
51 | Mike Trout | 19 | OF |
52 | Aaron Nola | 18 | SP |
53 | Max Fried | 18 | SP |
54 | Christian Yelich | 18 | DH-OF |
55 | Kyle Schwarber | 18 | DH-OF |
56 | Oneil Cruz | 18 | SS |
57 | Edwin Diaz | 17 | RP |
58 | Josh Hader | 17 | RP |
59 | Zach Eflin | 17 | SP |
60 | Adley Rutschman | 17 | C-DH |
61 | Alex Bregman | 17 | 3B |
62 | Emmanuel Clase | 17 | RP |
63 | Bryan Reynolds | 17 | OF |
64 | William Contreras | 16 | C-DH |
65 | Manny Machado | 16 | 3B-DH |
66 | Camilo Doval | 16 | RP |
67 | Freddy Peralta | 16 | SP |
68 | Grayson Rodriguez | 16 | SP |
69 | Paul Goldschmidt | 16 | 1B-DH |
70 | Cole Ragans | 16 | RP-SP |
71 | J.T. Realmuto | 16 | C |
72 | Gleyber Torres | 16 | 2B |
73 | Cody Bellinger | 16 | 1B-OF |
74 | Christian Walker | 16 | 1B |
75 | Nolan Arenado | 16 | 3B |
76 | Will Smith | 16 | C |
77 | Jesus Luzardo | 15 | SP |
78 | Raisel Iglesias | 15 | RP |
79 | Bobby Miller | 15 | SP |
80 | Seiya Suzuki | 15 | OF |
81 | Nick Castellanos | 15 | OF |
82 | Ketel Marte | 15 | 2B |
83 | Triston Casas | 15 | 1B |
84 | Ha-seong Kim | 15 | 2B-3B-SS |
85 | Xander Bogaerts | 15 | 2B-SS |
86 | Riley Greene | 14 | OF |
87 | Bryson Stott | 14 | 2B |
88 | Blake Snell | 14 | SP |
89 | Dylan Cease | 14 | SP |
90 | Tanner Bibee | 14 | SP |
91 | Andres Gimenez | 14 | 2B |
92 | Yainer Diaz | 14 | C-DH |
93 | Josh Naylor | 14 | 1B-DH |
94 | Spencer Torkelson | 14 | 1B |
95 | Yandy Diaz | 14 | 1B |
96 | George Springer | 14 | DH-OF |
97 | Andres Munoz | 14 | RP |
98 | David Bednar | 14 | RP |
99 | Joe Musgrove | 14 | SP |
100 | Jordan Walker | 14 | OF |
101 | Dansby Swanson | 14 | SS |
102 | Jackson Chourio | 14 | OF |
103 | Wyatt Langford | 14 | OF |
104 | Evan Carter | 14 | OF |
105 | Alexis Diaz | 14 | RP |
106 | Pete Fairbanks | 14 | RP |
107 | Vinnie Pasquantino | 13 | 1B |
108 | Spencer Steer | 13 | 1B-3B-OF |
109 | Teoscar Hernandez | 13 | DH-OF |
110 | Jarren Duran | 13 | OF |
111 | Ryan Helsley | 13 | RP |
112 | Chris Sale | 13 | SP |
113 | Evan Phillips | 13 | RP |
114 | Shane Bieber | 13 | SP |
115 | Cal Raleigh | 13 | C |
116 | Luis Arraez | 13 | 2B |
117 | Clay Holmes | 13 | RP |
118 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 13 | 1B-DH |
119 | Marcell Ozuna | 13 | DH |
120 | Kenley Jansen | 13 | RP |
121 | Ian Happ | 13 | OF |
122 | Willson Contreras | 13 | C-DH |
123 | Joe Ryan | 13 | SP |
124 | Hunter Greene | 13 | SP |
125 | Chris Bassitt | 12 | SP |
126 | Jake Burger | 12 | 3B-DH |
127 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | 11 | 3B |
128 | Bailey Ober | 10 | SP |
129 | Justin Steele | 9 | SP |
130 | Jorge Soler | 9 | DH-OF |
131 | Anthony Santander | 9 | DH-OF |
132 | Jordan Romano | 9 | RP |
133 | Abner Uribe | 9 | RP |
134 | Adbert Alzolay | 9 | RP |
135 | Francisco Alvarez | 9 | C |
136 | Mitch Garver | 8 | C-DH |
137 | Carlos Rodon | 8 | SP |
138 | Rhys Hoskins | 8 | 1B |
139 | Justin Verlander | 8 | SP |
140 | Walker Buehler | 7 | SP |
141 | Sonny Gray | 7 | SP |
142 | Gerrit Cole | 7 | SP |
143 | Kodai Senga | 7 | SP |
144 | Eury Perez | 7 | SP |
145 | Anthony Volpe | 7 | SS |
146 | Shota Imanaga | 7 | SP |
147 | Merrill Kelly | 7 | SP |
148 | Zack Gelof | 7 | 2B |
149 | Thairo Estrada | 7 | 2B-SS |
150 | Willy Adames | 7 | SS |
151 | Logan O'Hoppe | 7 | C |
152 | Salvador Perez | 7 | 1B-C-DH |
153 | Joshua Lowe | 7 | DH-OF |
154 | Max Muncy | 7 | 3B |
155 | Isaac Paredes | 7 | 1B-3B |
156 | Alec Bohm | 7 | 1B-3B |
157 | Gabriel Moreno | 7 | C |
158 | Trevor Story | 7 | SS |
159 | Craig Kimbrel | 7 | RP |
160 | Brandon Nimmo | 7 | OF |
161 | Garrett Crochet | 7 | RP |
162 | Steven Kwan | 7 | OF |
163 | Chas McCormick | 7 | OF |
164 | Mitch Keller | 7 | SP |
165 | Masataka Yoshida | 7 | DH-OF |
166 | Henry Davis | 7 | OF |
167 | Tanner Scott | 6 | RP |
168 | Jose Berrios | 6 | SP |
169 | Cedric Mullins | 6 | OF |
170 | Tyler O'Neill | 6 | OF |
171 | Jordan Montgomery | 6 | SP |
172 | Daulton Varsho | 6 | OF |
173 | Nolan Gorman | 6 | 2B-DH |
174 | Yu Darvish | 6 | SP |
175 | Aaron Civale | 6 | SP |
176 | Nick Pivetta | 6 | RP-SP |
177 | Cristian Javier | 6 | SP |
178 | Keibert Ruiz | 5 | C |
179 | Eloy Jimenez | 5 | DH |
180 | Jonah Heim | 5 | C |
181 | Byron Buxton | 5 | DH |
182 | Gavin Williams | 5 | SP |
183 | Lane Thomas | 5 | OF |
184 | Bo Naylor | 5 | C |
185 | Christopher Morel | 5 | DH-OF |
186 | Bryce Miller | 5 | SP |
187 | Jhoan Duran | 5 | RP |
188 | Jonathan India | 5 | 2B |
189 | James Outman | 4 | OF |
190 | Hunter Brown | 4 | SP |
191 | Jack Flaherty | 4 | SP |
192 | Nathan Eovaldi | 4 | SP |
193 | Jose Alvarado | 4 | RP |
194 | Kerry Carpenter | 4 | DH-OF |
195 | Taylor Ward | 4 | OF |
196 | Jackson Merrill | 4 | OF-SS |
197 | Carlos Correa | 4 | SS |
198 | Jung-Hoo Lee | 3 | OF |
199 | Jose Leclerc | 3 | RP |
200 | J.D. Martinez | 3 | DH |
201 | Paul Sewald | 3 | RP |
202 | Michael King | 3 | RP-SP |
203 | Victor Scott II | 3 | OF |
204 | Jason Foley | 3 | RP |
205 | Lars Nootbaar | 3 | OF |
206 | Josh Jung | 3 | 3B |
207 | Maikel Garcia | 3 | 3B |
208 | Tommy Edman | 3 | 2B-OF-SS |
209 | Carlos Estevez | 3 | RP |
210 | Ezequiel Tovar | 3 | SS |
211 | Ryan Mountcastle | 3 | 1B-DH |
212 | Luis Campusano | 3 | C |
213 | Starling Marte | 3 | OF |
214 | Brandon Drury | 3 | 1B-2B |
215 | Jeimer Candelario | 3 | 1B-3B |
216 | Colt Keith | 3 | 3B |
217 | Matt Chapman | 3 | 3B |
218 | Ryan McMahon | 3 | 2B-3B |
219 | Anthony Rizzo | 3 | 1B |
220 | Nate Lowe | 3 | 1B |
221 | Lourdes Gurriel | 3 | DH-OF |
222 | Kyle Bradish | 2 | SP |
223 | Mason Miller | 2 | SP |
224 | Robert Suarez | 2 | RP |
225 | Reid Detmers | 2 | SP |
226 | Gavin Stone | 2 | SP |
227 | Yusei Kikuchi | 2 | SP |
228 | Max Scherzer | 2 | SP |
229 | Brandon Pfaadt | 2 | SP |
230 | Andrew Vaughn | 2 | 1B |
231 | Kyle Finnegan | 2 | RP |
232 | Charlie Morton | 2 | SP |
233 | Jarred Kelenic | 2 | OF |
234 | Braxton Garrett | 2 | SP |
235 | Kenta Maeda | 2 | SP |
236 | Brice Turang | 2 | 2B-SS |
237 | Royce Lewis | 2 | 3B |
238 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 2 | SP |
239 | Jeremy Pena | 2 | SS |
240 | Nestor Cortes | 2 | SP |
241 | Nick Lodolo | 2 | SP |
242 | Will Smith | 2 | RP |
243 | Tyler Stephenson | 2 | C-DH |
244 | Luis Severino | 2 | SP |
245 | Jared Jones | 2 | SP |
246 | Jorge Polanco | 2 | 2B |
247 | Max Kepler | 2 | OF |
248 | Kevin Ginkel | 2 | RP |
249 | Josh Bell | 2 | 1B-DH |
250 | Luis Rengifo | 2 | 2B-3B-OF-SS |
251 | Kutter Crawford | 2 | SP |
252 | MJ Melendez | 2 | OF |
253 | Will Benson | 2 | OF |
254 | Jack Suwinski | 2 | OF |
255 | Tanner Houck | 2 | SP |
256 | Cristopher Sanchez | 2 | SP |