I want to clarify something here after a weekend chock-full of noteworthy performances. The goal of this Stockwatch is to highlight the players who've actually raised or lowered their standing in my eyes. It's not to react to every hot and cold streak.
It's a subjective standard, no doubt, and one could argue that Alec Bohm (seven multi-hit games in his past eight for a .365 batting average), Ranger Suarez (one run in eight innings for a 1.32 ERA) and Chris Bassitt (seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings for a 5.64 ERA) objectively raised or lowered their trade value with their performances this weekend. But you click for my point of view and not just a sterile rundown of events, I hope. By excluding those three from this exercise, I'm saying that my expectations for them haven't actually changed.
Perhaps I'll have more to say about them in some other space in the coming days, but for now ...
Stock Up
It's true that Carlos Rodon had finagled his way 2.70 ERA through five starts, mostly by getting the most out of two cupcake matchups, but with few whiffs to speak of on his slider, it seemed like he was building toward a disaster much like we saw in 2023. But Saturday's start offered real reason for optimism. Not only did he strike out more than a batter per inning for the first time but more than half of his 12 swinging strikes came on the slider. Without that pitch, he's dead in the water. With it, he may yet deliver on the bounce-back season we were hoping for. Of course, one isolated start is not yet a trend, but it's reason to keep the faith in Rodon when mine had about run out.
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Everything was looking so promising for Tyler O'Neill through 15 games. He had already homered seven times and was striking out at his lowest rate ever. But then came a concussion and subsequent IL stint, a potential derailment for a player too often derailed. If nothing else, the injury figured to stop his momentum and leave us wondering whether those first 15 games or his 2022 and 2023 seasons were the mirage. But instead, O'Neill came back and went 6 for 13 with two home runs in his three games against the Cubs this weekend. The way he picked up right where he left off is the strongest testament yet to this year's version of O'Neill being the best possible version of O'Neill, which is saying something given the numbers he put up in 2021.
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After a career spent mostly in relief, Jordan Hicks' transition to the starting rotation seemed to be going well enough with a 1.61 ERA through five starts. But with that transition came a sharp decrease in velocity and total lack of strikeouts, raising concerns about how long his success would last. His start Saturday against the Pirates may have put those concerns to rest. The strikeouts were there in abundance and backed up by 15 swinging strikes, including 11 on his new splitter, a pitch he added in anticipation of being stretched out to start. Its swing-and-miss characteristics have stood out this whole time, but Hicks threw it nearly twice as often in Saturday's start. And judging from the results, you have to figure he'll stick with that approach.
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The prevailing theory coming into this season was that Anthony Rizzo was never right after suffering a concussion last May and was poised to rebound now that he was fully recovered. But after 23 games, he had homered just once and was bating .227, raising the question of whether he had anything left at age 34. Since then, he's gone 11 for 24 (.458) with four home runs, hitting safely in seven of his past eight at-bats. It's a stretch unlike we've seen from him since prior to that concussion last May, which means the prevailing theory is still very much in play.
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Erick Fedde worked with Driveline Baseball to remake his arsenal prior to the 2023 season and went on to dominate the Korean league, winning its equivalent of the MVP and Cy Young awards with a 20-6 record, 2.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. His new split-change had made him more of a ground-ball specialist while his new sweeper had made him more of a bat-misser -- or at least, that's how the story went. But we didn't see much evidence of either in spring training or through five regular season starts, and I'll admit to losing faith. That faith has been restored over his past two starts, though, during which Fedde has registered 20 strikeouts to zero walks in 14 1/3 innings. Perhaps he just needed some time to get a feel for his new pitches with the MLB ball, which has lower seams and is less tacky than the KBO ball.
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Reese Olson has had only one bad start in five chances this year, but you wouldn't know it by his 47 percent roster rate in CBS Sports leagues. Maybe this weekend's outing against the Royals will be enough to win people over finally. The eight strikeouts in seven innings may seem out of character for a pitcher with less than a strikeout per inning overall, but judging by the 43.1 percent whiff rate on his slider and the 55.8 percent whiff rate on his changeup -- two pitches he throws about as often as his fastball -- he's poised to make up even more ground in the strikeout department. He also has a 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate (different denominator than whiff rate), which places him directly between Pablo Lopez and Grayson Rodriguez among qualifiers.
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I'd be remiss not to comment on the news of Joey Loperfido's promotion. The 24-year-old has genuinely improved his prospect stock in his short time at Triple-A this year, not just with his performance but with the additional 5-6 mph in average and max exit velocity from a year ago. He's impacting the ball in a way that might just make up for his bloated strikeout rate -- but that's only a "might." There may be playing time issues, too, not because I think the Astros are dead set on Jose Abreu at first base or Chas McCormick in left field or Jake Meyers in center, three positions where they could certainly use an upgrade, but because Loperfido hits left-handed. Those drawbacks would give me some reservations about adding Loperfido in leagues where fewer than 300 players are rostered, but in anything deeper, it's a must.
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Once a consensus top-five prospect overall, Jo Adell got called up too early in 2020 and spent the next few years in prospect purgatory, striking out too much to find success in the majors but performing too well to gain anything from his time at Triple-A. He made the opening day roster for no other reason than because he was out of options and wasn't playing much at first, but suddenly, he's started six straight games, forcing his way into the lineup with his performance. And that once-crippling strikeout rate? It's down to a more-than-manageable 23.6 percent. Adell has long stood out for his raw ability, the power and speed both rating near the top of the scales, and age 25 is hardly too late for a breakout.
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Stock Down
No doubt, Jackson Holliday's first stint in the majors was about as ugly as it gets, and no one could blame the Orioles for sending him back down after he struck out in half of his 36 plate appearances. I do expect his return to come relatively soon, and I do consider him to be the top prospect to stash, if you play in the sort of league where stashing prospects is a viable strategy. But if you don't, it's probably OK to drop him. There will be less competition for his services when he returns, and no one can say with as much conviction anymore that stashing him will even be worth it.
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David Bednar clearly isn't right. He allowed five runs, four earned, in his two appearances over the weekend and hasn't had an ERA below 9.00 since April 9. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what's wrong with him -- presumably, it has to do with the lat injury that denied him anything close to a typical spring training -- but you have to wonder if the Pirates are going to pull back on him at some point. What may save him is that Aroldis Chapman has been shaky as well, but even so, you should probably sit Bednar until things stabilize for him.
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Everything was going so smoothly for Craig Kimbrel -- with his 0.82 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 13.9 K/9 through 11 appearances -- that you had to know the other shoe was about to drop. It happened this weekend with two blown saves in two appearances. All six of his walks have come in his past four appearances, and if you've followed Kimbrel for any length of time, you know that walks mean trouble. A bout with back tightness, which first became known in the latest of those appearances Sunday, may have something to do with it, but it's of little comfort if it lands him on the IL. Either way, your best plan is probably to sit Kimbrel for now. Were he to miss time, Yennier Cano would presumably fill in.
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With another stinker Sunday, Michael King now has a 5.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He's served up more home runs and issued more walks than any other pitcher. The ERA estimators are all equally unfavorable, and there's little in the underlying numbers to redeem him. Pitchers have overcome bad Aprils before, but to hold out hope for an April this bad, there needs to be some track record to speak of. Our hopes for King hinged entirely on his eight starts for the Yankees late last season, only half of which lasted five innings or more. There's more reason at this point to believe it won't work than that it will, and in 12-teams leagues, it's OK to move on.
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