Team USA has breezed through the first two games of the 2019 Women's World Cup, encountering little resistance. The Americans blitzed Thailand in a historic 13-0 rout. They then controlled Chile throughout on their way to a 3-0 win. With two victories leading to six points and a massive plus-16 goal differential, Team USA is a lock to advance to the Round of 16 in the FIFA Women's World Cup 2019. The USWNT, however, is not guaranteed to win Group F since Thursday's opponent, Sweden, also has accumulated six points thanks to its 2-0 record. These sides meet at Stade Oceane in Le Havre, France at 3 p.m. ET, with the winner taking the top spot in the group. Team USA is a -400 favorite (risk $400 to win $100), with Sweden getting +1100 (risk $100 to return $1,100). A draw, which would give USA first in the group as well, is +490 in the current USA vs. Sweden odds, and the over-under for total goals is 2.5. Before laying down any USA vs. Sweden picks for Thursday, be sure to see the 2019 Women's World Cup predictions from European soccer expert David Sumpter.
Sumpter is an applied mathematician and author of "Soccermatics," a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Along with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the three seasons since its inception, Soccerbot is up an incredible 2,000 percent on Premier League picks. That's right -- 2,000 percent.
And the model has crushed its 2019 Women's World Cup group stage picks, returning a healthy profit already to anyone following it. The model correctly predicted the stunning Japan-Argentina draw (+825) -- a more than 8-1 long shot -- and was all over Brazil beating Italy, Germany outlasting Spain, England topping Scotland and Australia's dramatic comeback win over Brazil.
Now, the model has its sights set on USA vs. Sweden. We can tell you it's leaning under, but its much stronger play is on the money line. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows Team USA is the top-ranked squad in the world for a reason. The Americans went 18-0-2 last year and are 9-1-2 in 2019, the lone defeat to No. 2 France. They've won three of the seven Women's World Cup tournaments and are the defending champions.
Team USA made a statement in a 13-0 demolition of Thailand, the most-lopsided result in Women's World Cup history. Alex Morgan scored five goals that day. Only four starters against Thailand played against Chile, but they still won 3-0 with two goals from Carli Lloyd.
Sweden plays defense, but it won't matter if the South American nation can't score. Throwing out the 5-1 win against overmatched Thailand, Sweden averaged 1.2 goals over its last six games. If a motivated U.S. team gets an early lead, Sweden may not have the offensive muscle to rebound.
But just because the Americans have crushed the competition doesn't mean they're the best value on the USA vs. Sweden money line.
The model has taken into account that Sweden is extremely familiar with Team USA and shouldn't be intimidated by the world's top-ranked squad.
These sides have met five times in the Women's World Cup, more than any other pair of nations in the tournament's history. Teams USA has the 3-1-1 edge in the Women's World Cup, but of the 38 times these sides have played in international competition, the Americans have just 21 outright wins, showing that Sweden has a history of keeping this rivalry competitive. Sweden tied the USA 0-0 in the 2015 Women's World Cup group stage and beat the Americans in penalty kicks in the quarterfinals of the 2016 Olympics.
Sweden is known for its defensive prowess. Don't expect the USWNT to get the quantity and quality of looks it had in the first two games. Sweden has offensive firepower as well. Midfielder Kosovare Asllani has netted 34 goals in her international career and has recorded one in each game of group play thus far at the 2019 World Cup.
So who wins Sweden vs. USA? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Sweden vs. USA money line you need to be all over Thursday, all from an expert who created a model that's returned a 2,000 percent profit on bookmakers' closing odds.
