What's wrong with Newcastle? After a year on the rise, manager Eddie Howe faces his first prolonged slump

Newcastle took an early lead vs. Nottingham Forrest but eventually lost 3-1, leaving them winless in in three straight

When the final whistle blew to confirm Newcastle United's 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday, the result marked a continuation of the team's recent form of uninspiring performances. The defeat also served as a reminder that the Magpies' once promising season has given way to a downward spiral they cannot seem to escape from.

Once upon a time, Eddie Howe's side was one to keep an eye on. They had just one loss in September and October, at one point had a nine-match unbeaten run, and sat atop their ultra-competitive Champions League group. They also collected wins over Manchester City, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain during their early season run. Arguments in Newcastle's favor seemed to reach a fever pitch after their Nov. 4 win over Arsenal, with the team on the right path to proving last season's top four finish may not have been a fluke after all.

The subsequent 12 games are a stark contrast to their early season exploits, though. The Magpies are now winless in three and have just three wins in their last 12 games in all competitions, a stretch in which they crashed out of European competition and individual mistakes cost them a spot in the EFL Cup semifinals. They have also slipped down to seventh in the Premier League table with this loss, and that's before teams around them like Manchester United and Brighton and Hove Albion play with the chance to leapfrog them.

A win over Arsenal that was once a sign of their strengths now acts as a turning point for a season that has completely unraveled. During the first 11 games of the Premier League season, Newcastle ranked second or third in a handful of attacking categories -- goals scored with 27, shots on goal with 66 and expected goals with 23.1. They were on a hot streak up top and served as the picture of efficiency in attack -- they ranked 11th for shots with 144, but first in shots on target percentage by putting 44.3% of those attempts on goal.

They have dropped off in nearly every category in the following seven league games. Since that win over Arsenal, their goals per game has dropped from 2.45 to 1.25, their shots on goal average is down from 6 to 4.88, and their shots on target percentage has slipped to a paltry 30.7%. They rank 11th in the league for goals and 18th for shots on goal percentage during that stretch, and their defensive form has also taken a hit -- they conceded an average of 1 goal a game in the first 11 matches of the season, but are now up to 1.75 goals against per 90 minutes.

Much of this can be attributed to Newcastle's massive injury crisis. They have missed as many as 11 players at a time during this poor run of form, including crucial players in just about every position. Forward Callum Wilson was out of the team for several weeks with a hamstring injury, while defender Dan Burn missed time with a spinal injury. Goalkeeper Nick Pope, meanwhile, is in the midst of recovering from a shoulder injury that could keep him out until April.

Their absences mean the players that are available have had to play incredibly often during a busy stretch, but are visibly low on energy with each passing game. That was very much the case against Forest, when Newcastle would turn over the ball with frequency and let the visitors run rampant on the counterattack.

That said, Newcastle are still showing signs of strength in attack. Their expected goals average per game is down slightly from 2.1 to 2.01, but their shots average is actually up during the last seven games -- they were averaging 13.55 a game but are now up to 15.88. The Magpies also currently rank first in the league for expected goals during the last seven games and second for shots. They are clearly underperforming on their potential in these categories, though -- they have 16.07 expected goals during this stretch but just 10 goals to show for it, and are now more wasteful with their chances despite being one of the most efficient attacking teams in the league earlier this season.

That might also be down to the absences and fatigue Newcastle are experiencing, but also potentially indicates that the team has been hanging out on different ends of the luck spectrum during this season. They were overperforming their expected goals during the first 11 games by about four goals and have since underperformed on that metric by roughly six goals, which means we still may not have seen the real Newcastle.

The recent form is obviously not a sustainable strategy for success, but their earlier sample set also raises questions about how easy it might be to replicate. At full strength earlier this season, Howe's Newcastle demonstrated they might have the foundation to build something impressive with their solid defensive shape and intentional shot-taking. But, a couple of months of struggles later and it's hard to know if that was a one-off, considering they punched above their weight with their goalscoring exploits.

Given that the injury list will likely stay lengthy for some time, and that  the typically tame January transfer window will likely provide few answers to the Magpies' problems, things might not get noticeably better on that front in the near-future. It ultimately means that we  might not receive answers anytime soon to the questions about how high Newcastle can go, which might not be the best news for Howe, since it is hard to nail down the identity of his team two years into his tenure. Amidst all the uncertainty at St James' Park, though, one thing feels definite -- taking a team from the bottom three race to become regulars in the discussion for top four is not as instantaneous as the Magpies are trying to make it seem under their new owners.