Eight games to go until we will crown a winner in Italy and discover who will prevail in this year's race for the Scudetto. Even at this late date, four clubs can potentially hope to be the champions and this last stint of fixtures will be more exciting than ever. AC Milan are still the leading candidate, but Inter Milan and Napoli are there nipping at their heels. We shouldn't underestimate Juventus as well. A win this weekend against Inter Milan and they have the chance to be back fully in the race. The European spots are still to be determined and the relegation battle is remains wide open with many clubs involved. And now let's go into the rankings.
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Serie A title contenders
The teams that are in the race to win the Scudetto this year.
1. AC Milan (-)
March was a crucial month for Rossoneri that are now the leading candidates to win this year's Scudetto. Stefano Pioli's side now has the pressure of being the leader of the pack with other rivals trying to chase them down. But Milan can now count on Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who is finally back and can contribute to bringing back the title to the club eleven years after the last time. And the margins are fine for the Rossoneri who have won the most matches by a one-goal margin in the big-5 European leagues this season (11), including each of their last five wins in Serie A.
Eight matches left: Bologna (H), Torino (A), Genoa (H), Lazio (A), Fiorentina (H), Hellas Verona (A), Atalanta (H), Sassuolo (A).
2. Inter Milan (-)
They've been the opposite of AC Milan over the last two months. After losing the Derby della Madonnina, Simone Inzaghi's side is going through a very difficult moment and this international break was hopefully a good restart for the Nerazzurri who need to get results on the board quickly over their last nine matches. Inter do get to play one more game than their rivals, against Bologna on April 27. However, if the play as they have recently, even that game might not be enough to get them to the top of the table for a back-to-back Scudetto win.
Nine matches left: Juventus (A), Hellas Verona (H), Spezia (A), Roma (H), Bologna (A), Udinese (A), Empoli (H), Cagliari (A), Sampdoria (H),
3. Juventus (-)
Massimilano Allegri's side, despite the bad loss against Villarreal in the Champions League's round of 16, are in fine form and have clawed their way back into the Serie A title race. Juventus are behind in the table but this weekend's clash against Inter Milan gives them a real chance to vault themselves into the picture at the top of the table. Especially given that their calendar gets pretty easy after Inter. Dusan Vlahović and Alvaro Morata are performing well, and while Paulo Dybala will leave at the end of the season, he gets the chance to go out a hero if they could pull this off.
Eight matches left: Inter (H), Cagliari (A), Bologna (H), Sassuolo (A), Venezia (H), Genoa (A), Lazio (H), Fiorentina (A)
4. Napoli (-)
Napoli are still there, despite being considered less likely to win the title than their rivals. It's mostly a strength of schedule isseue. Luciano Spalletti's team still has sides like Atalanta, Roma and Fiorentina ahead of them. It will be a difficult month for Napoli but if they can come out of the next three matches still in the race, they can have chances to fight until the end. Victor Osimhen will be key. Napoli have won 70% of their Serie A games this season with Osimhen (14/20), while their winning percentage drops to 50% without him (5/10), that leads to their points per game ratio dropping without the Nigerian (2.3 to 1.7).
Eight matches left: Atalanta (A), Fiorentina (H), Roma (H), Empoli (A), Sassuolo (H), Torino (A), Genoa (H), Spezia (A).
European spots
Clubs that are fighting to play in Europe next season.
5. Atalanta (-)
It's a testament to how far Atalanta have come over the last five years that this season is quite disappointing. They now need a strong final part of the season to secure the fifth place. Gasperini's team was one of the strongest last seasons but this year they had some ups and downs especially in Serie A. One of the factors was that their key strikers underperformed compared to the last season. Luis Muriel has scored just four league goals this season, the last time he scored as few as four in a Serie A campaign was way back in 2014/15 (for Sampdoria and Udinese).
6. Roma (+1)
Jose Mourinho's best game of the season was the last one against Lazio, the most important match of the season for most of the Giallorossi fans. Their 3-0 win moved Roma into sixth position in the table with the same points as Atalanta (though the Bergamo side have one game in hand). Mourinho's ambition is to get that fifth place and prepare for next season after a strong end to the current one. Tammy Abraham (15 league goals this season) could equal Gerald "Gerry" Hitchens as the best English scorer in a single Serie A campaign (16 goals for Inter in 1961/62). Abraham, thanks to his 23 goals in all competitions, is the Englishman to have scored the most goals this term among the players currently in the Big-5 European Leagues.
7. Lazio (-1)
After losing badly in the Derby della Capitale, Sarri's team lost one place in the rankings and continue to suffer from the same issues they have over the last few months. The most worrying signal is that this team doesn't look like a Sarri team, and this might put some questions about the future of the coach. He could leave at the end of the season according to some reports. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is the midfielder to have been directly involved in the most goals in this league campaign, while his 17 goals involvements (eight goals, nine assists) represents a joint high for him in a single Serie A campaign (17 also in 2020/21 Italian top-flight).
8. Fiorentina (-)
One of the most impressive sides of the current season, Vincenzo Italiano's work has been really solid and he can still aim higher given that he has a game in hand. After losing Dusan Vlahovic last January, this team kept its ambitions and they are now fully in the race for the Europa League spots. With some improvements on the market this is a roster that can do even better in the years to come.
Middle of the pack
These teams are definitely going to stay in the league but have no chance to play in European competitions next season.
9. Sassuolo (-)
Dionisi's team are in very good shape recently and won four of the last five matches. This side needed some time to find their balance after changing coaches last summer but now they are back and next year they can fight again for a European spot. Sassuolo, thanks to Domenico Berardi and Gianluca Scamacca is one of only three sides, along with Real Madrid and Liverpool, to have two players with more than 13 goals scored in the big five European leagues in 2021/22.
10. Hellas Verona (+1)
After reaching the forty points needed to secure the Serie A survival for next season, Hellas Verona had a little decline in terms of results in the last few weeks. It's not unexpected and doesn't change the overall judgement of their season's performances. Under Igor Tudor (September 14, 2021 onwards), Verona have the second-best attack in Serie A (52 goals scored, only fewer than Inter, 53).
11. Torino (-1)
Coach Ivan Juric isn't particularly happy recently after that his team was one of the best ones in the first part of the season and now has underperformed in the last weeks. Torino have a PPDA (Passed allowed Per Defensive Action, a measure of how aggressively a team presses) of 9.2 in Serie A this season (the 2nd lowest value). In the big-5 European leagues, only Barcelona (8.8) press higher than them this team.
12. Empoli (-)
Empoli had a solid season and for the first time in a long time they won't be fighting until the final matches just to avoid relegation. Many players were an important part of this step forward, including striker Andrea Pinamonti who will be one of the most interesting names on the market this summer. Then there's Nedim Bajrami leads Empoli with 282 passes made in the attacking third, 48 chances created, 4.4 expected assists and co-leads with three assists.
13. Udinese (-)
Despite Covid-19 cases and injuries that affected the performances of this side over the last few months, Gabriele Cioffi worked really well to keep Udinese out of the relegation battle this year. Since February, Roberto Pereyra has been one of the three players to have assisted at least three goals in Serie A (level with Freuler and Candreva): however, he is the only one among these three players to have played less than 400 minutes (329).
14. Bologna (-)
A difficult moment for Bologna and especially for coach Sinisa Mihajlovic who announced last Saturday that he will return to the hospital for another round of treatment against the same cancer that changed his life since the summer of 2019.The Serbian coach will keep his job remotely while the team need to get some important points on the pitch.
Relegation zone
These sides are struggling and are fighting to keep their spot in Serie A for next season.
15. Spezia (-)
A few weeks ago it seemed that Spezia's relegation was very likely. However, Thiago Motta managed to improve the performances of his team very much and Spezia are now in a better position. Still not sure to make it, but with much more hope considering how many teams will be involved until the very end of the season.
16. Sampdoria (+1)
Winning away against Venezia was very important for Marco Giampaolo's which has improved a lot since he arrived. Sampdoria have gained 1.13 points per game under Marco Giampaolo, while they had 0.91 under Roberto D'Aversa, in the first part of the season. Since Giampaolo re-joined the club, they have earned nine points in eight match-days (level with Atalanta and Cagliari), with six sides having won fewer points than them.
17. Cagliari (-1)
Alongside Juventus they were the best team of the league in the first two months of 2022. In the last few weeks something has changed and their results are quite worrying. Joao Pedro accounts for 36% of Cagliari's goals (4th-highest rate in Serie A), 32% of Cagliari's expected goals (3rd-highest rate in Serie A), and 21% of Cagliari's shots (3rd-highest rate in Serie A). So as Pedro goes, so goes Cagliari.
18. Genoa (+1)
Genoa are back. The win against Torino gave a boost of hopes to the fans that can now push their team in the last part of the season. Since Alexander Blessin became Genoa manager (19th January 2022), the Rossoblù have kept six clean sheets in eight Serie A matches; in this period, only Real Sociedad (seven in nine games) have done better in the big five European Leagues. In fact, considering this same period, no team has conceded fewer shots on target than the Grifone in Serie A (22, level with Milan).
19. Venezia (-1)
This side collapsed over the last few weeks despite also a strong January transfer window and are now in a very dangerous position in the table. American Gianluca Busio has attempted the 3rd-most passes on Venezia this season with 766, his 85% pass completion rate is the highest on the team among players with 900+ minutes played. He might have a bright future, but if Venezia get relegated will that make it harder for him to make a USMNT squad for Qatar in November?
20. Salernitana (-)
New week of our power rankings, same situation for Salernitana. Only a miracle can save them from relegation. Salernitana are on the joint-longest home winless run in Serie A: 10 (alongside Venezia) - following six consecutive defeats, they have drawn their last four on home soil - the last Campania's team that recorded more draws consecutively at home was Napoli (six between February and May 1972).
