As Newcastle United earned their first Champions League berth in decades, the objective for the team was to ensure that this accomplishment would not serve as a fluke. Three months into the 2023-24 season, it's clear that the team are good enough to stay in the conversation for another year running, thanks in large part to their attacking performances.
Through 11 games in Premier League play, the Magpies are only second to Manchester City in a handful of attacking statistics -- goals (27), expected goals (23.11), and shots on goal (66). It's the result of notable efficiency in front of goal, since Newcastle rank 10th for shots with 149, well short of league leaders Liverpool with 200. That intentional attacking strategy, as a result, allows Eddie Howe's side to pip City in one crucial category -- shot on target percentage. Newcastle sit first in the Premier League with 44.3% of their shots being on goal, while City is second with 42.6%.
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That trend plays out with their top scorers in the league this season, Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson. Both have scored a third of their shots -- Isak has six goals from 18 shots and Wilson has seven from 21, leading the level of efficiency that the team as a whole seems to demonstrate in attack. Wilson ranks second in the league for shots on target percentage (71.4%) among those with five or more goals, while Isak is third (61.1%).
The concern for Howe and company, though, is that they have slightly overperformed their expected goals, a pattern that has continued into their Champions League campaign. They have four goals off of 2.3 expected goals, and rank 31st in group stage play in the latter category. All of those goals came in the team's statement 4-1 win over Paris Saint-Germain, when they had an expected goals tally of just 0.94.
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It has been a lackluster outing in attack over the course of three Champions League games, two of which they have failed to score in. They have 30 shots, averaging about three shots fewer than they do in the Premier League and their shot on target percentage is down to 40% from the 44.3% they boast in domestic play.
Based on the sample sizes, it is worth arguing the Magpies' Premier League showing is a truer version of themselves that is bound to show up in some way when they take to the pitch for Champions League action. As they press on in the incredibly competitive Group F, in which four points separate top spot from last place, they are running out of time to fix that. Ahead of a crucial game against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday, it's worth asking: Which Newcastle will show up?
How To Watch
- When: Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET
- Where: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK
- Online Streaming: Paramount+
- Follow: CBS Sports App