After last season's forest fire of a heater in front of goal, an icy wind is blowing in the penalty areas of the Emirates Stadium. A squad that in 2022-23 busted their non-penalty expected goals (npxG) across the board is now that most curious of things, a title contender that is underperforming against the value of their shots.
Thursday's 2-0 defeat at West Ham was the nadir in a recent slide in front of goal, the kind of match that delivers the sort of records that Mikel Arteta can spin as "something positive." At 77, Arsenal registered the most touches in the penalty area by any Premier League team not to score a goal since Opta began tracking that metric. In the Spaniard's full seasons in charge, the most no-penalty xG Arsenal had registered in a top flight game without scoring before was 1.7. They obliterated that margin with 2.77. Ropey finishing at one end and weird errors at the other tend not to repeat themselves.
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This defeat may have been an outlier but it is also a curious spike on a trend line that has been heading in the wrong direction for some time. In the seven league games since the November international break Arsenal have had shots worth 14.05 npxG, not to mention the string of good openings against Aston Villa and Liverpool that they didn't even turn into efforts on goal. From those games they have scored 10 goals, four of them in the thrilling win over Luton Town. For the season as a whole, Arsenal are marginally down on shot value, 30 goals from 30.8 npxG. No wonder then that Arteta had a stark warning for his forwards.
Asked directly if a team playing the way his is can win the Premier League title, the Arsenal manager said: "If we don't improve in the boxes, no." There is likely truth in that. It takes something impressive indeed to claim top spot while performing at your xG. With Manchester City and Liverpool battling alongside them, it is hard to see the Gunners winning the league if there aren't a few hot hands (or should that be feet?) in front of goal over the next 19 games.
That is what they had when they held out at the top of last season's Premier League for so long. They were fired to the summit by almighty hot streaks from Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. That triumvirate turned non-penalty shots worth 28.23 npxG into 42 goals. Now they have come crashing down to earth; 8.69 npxG, seven goals.
The wingers in particular have struggled for goals of late. Martinelli has one in the Premier League since his winner against Manchester City on October 8. Saka might be weighing in with assists but in the same period he has the same number of goals. Arteta does not seem inclined to rest either. "Obviously there are a lot of games but they looked really good, they looked fresh," he said. "When you win we don't look at that. If they're 35, maybe it's a different question. They can keep going."
Something of a finishing slump might have been priced in for the attacking midfielders. After all Odegaard and Martinelli both bettered their npxG by more than 50 percent. That wasn't going to last. But the hope was that would be no worry, the slack could be picked up by those who had struggled in front of goal in 2022-23, Arsenal's center forwards. Not quite. Jesus, wracked by injuries early in the season once more, has just three goals from 4.77 npxG and spurned two headed chances to the frustration of the Emirates Stadium on Thursday. It has long been a source of amusement that one of the Premier League's best all round forwards just can't match his own exceedingly high xG. That joke may not be very funny anymore around north London, where they are getting a little over 70% goal return on the shots he is taking.
With January around the corner, the cry will go up to sign that elite finisher that Jesus is not. Best of luck finding that midway through the season. Arsenal's growth will have to come from within, and that is not unimaginable. There is nothing immutable about their No.9 that means he cannot get back to scoring on a par with his xG. Meanwhile, Thursday's game might have gone rather differently if Arteta had been able to call on the penalty box presence of Kai Havertz over a faltering Leandro Trossard, or perhaps if he had called on Emile Smith Rowe, a player with strong instincts on the edge of the penalty box and averages 0.22 npxG per 90. There are surely adjustments that can be made to a faltering left flank that will get Martinelli back into scoring positions. A player who averaged 0.3 npxG last season is now at 0.16.
Arteta would counsel that everything will eventually work out, that more performances like Thursday's will earn them points. "It's not panic," he said. "It's about trying to do more and better. If the team plays like this it's going to win a lot of games.
"Without spark, you don't generate what the team generated yesterday. It's impossible. But it's the final thing, the final touch, the final action that puts the ball in the net or not. That's what we need."
But, while after Thursday the focus might be on the final thing, the fear for Arsenal ought to be that what their attack is generating in the aggregate is not quite enough. At the halfway mark of the season their npxG is the league's seventh best at 30.81. That is counterbalanced by a supreme defense, but that sort of side tends to excel more in the cups than over a 38 game league season. Arsenal are not so far away from the latter team either. An upswing in the penalty box might be all it takes, but, as their manager himself acknowledges, without that this may be another season of frustration in north London.
