Corner Picks, soccer best bets, odds, predictions: Can Thiago Motta's Bologna finish strong? Man U vs. Arsenal

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

May 10, 2024 at 6:53 am ET • 4 min read

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Real freaking Madrid, man. I truly do not know how they do it.

I thought I'd cursed one of the greatest clubs in the world by picking them to beat Bayern Munich in their Champions League semifinal earlier this week. After all, my Sisyphean curse picking Champions League matches added another epic chapter on Tuesday, when PSG registered an xG (expected goals) of 3.53, hit the woodwork four times, and failed to score in a 1-0 loss to Borussia Dortmund in their semifinal, costing Corner Picks what should've been an easy winner with our Both Teams to Score play.

Then there was Real Madrid, down 1-0 to Bayern in the match and 3-2 on aggregate, in the 88th minute when all hell broke loose. Joselu, who had subbed on only a few minutes earlier and had only scored one goal since Feb. 19, pounced on a loose ball in front of the goal that Manuel Neuer couldn't hold onto and tied the match 1-1. A few minutes later, he found the back of the net again, following a beautiful cross from Antonio Rudiger.

In the blink of an eye, Real Magic had turned the world upside down again. Real Madrid are heading to a Champions League final, looking to win the competition for the 15th time (nobody else has more than seven). Bayern Munich returned home in shock, denied the chance to salvage a lost season that saw their run of 11 straight Bundesliga titles end.

And Corner Picks finally won a Champions League bet.

Wolverhampton vs. Crystal Palace

Date: Saturday, May 11 | Time: 10 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

Every year at this time, some teams can't wait to get the season over with and play as if they're already on vacation, and then there are the teams who don't want the season to end. Crystal Palace are in the latter category. They're playing their best football of the season right now. Palace have picked up 13 of 15 possible points in their last five matches with wins over Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United. Had they been playing like this all season, they would be competing for a spot in Europe next year. Instead, they're in 14th place, but this 14th-place team is favored on the road against Wolverhampton this Saturday.

Why? Because Wolves may be one of those teams waiting to get it over with. They're in 12th with nothing to play for and enter the weekend with one win in their last eight Premier League tilts. The lone victory came against a Luton Town squad staring relegation in the face. Wolverhampton's attack has been anemic lately, both in the results and predictive metrics. There's a chance they'll come out fired up in their final home match of the season, but the way Palace are playing, I don't know that it would matter. The Pick: Crystal Palace (+150)

Napoli vs. Bologna

Date: Saturday, May 11 | Time: 12:00 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Thiago Motta will not be managing Bologna next season. Managers who lead clubs like Bologna to the Champions League typically find themselves at a club that routinely qualifies for the Champions League before long, and that seems to be Motta's destiny. His new club will be excited about the hire, and they probably should be. He seems to know what he's doing. The problem, as far as I see it, is that the way Motta does things is not exciting. Bologna is providing Serie A fans with flashbacks to the days of Catenaccio.

Bologna matches have averaged a meager 2.17 goals this season, and Bologna have allowed only 27 goals this season. In 17 away matches Bologna have scored 19 goals and allowed 18. That includes four scoreless draws. It's not exciting, but it is effective. Considering Napoli have won only once in their last eight and qualify as a team that just wants the damn season to end, I don't see them putting up much of a fight. As a Napoli fan, I won't mind if Bologna puts a pillow over my face and gets this farce of a season over with, either. The Pick: Under 2.5

Manchester United vs. Arsenal

Date: Sunday, May 12 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

There's plenty of motivation here for Arsenal, not just because they're facing Manchester United, but because they know they have to get every point possible if they want to win the Premier League and hold off the Manchester City squad breathing down their neck, which puts Manchester United in a bit of a conundrum here. On the one hand, they would love to win this match not only to pick up the points and help assure themselves of European football next season, and probably cost Arsenal a title in the process...but that would hand that same title to Manchester City. We've got a real damned if you do, damned if you don't situation here.

So it's good news that we don't need to pick a winner. We can bet on goals being scored instead! It would certainly follow recent form for both clubs. Arsenal have scored 13 goals in their last four Premier League matches, while United's last six league matches have averaged 4.5 goals. Even if we remove United's offensive output, they've allowed 21 goals in their last 10 Premier League matches. The Red Devils are an absolute mess defensively. The Pick: Over 3.5 (-105)