Corner Picks, soccer best bet, picks, prediction: Inter top Lazio and Liverpool dominate struggling Man United

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Dec 15, 2023 at 1:17 pm ET • 4 min read

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This week brought the end of an era, though with little fanfare. The Champions League group stage wrapped up on Tuesday and Wednesday, with plenty of drama and plenty of matches that played out as if both teams were only there to perform court-ordered community service. In other words, it was the same kind of thing we see every year in every tournament with a group stage.

But this was the final year of the Champions League in its current format. The competition will expand next season and look quite a bit different. How, I'm not entirely sure. I haven't begun to look at the format or how it will work. From what little I've gleamed from the opinions of others, it seems as if they've taken all the principles of the Champions League's original intention (to bring the best European teams together for a competition) and mashed them together with the principles of a Super League (making sure all the rich teams get to stay rich regardless of how they perform).

I'm told they're selling it as a format that will reduce the number of "dead rubber" matches we see in group play, and perhaps that's true. The cynic in me believes it's far more likely the new format will produce the same number of "dead rubber" matches but do so while producing more revenue.

Either way, I'll watch.

Augsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund

Date: Saturday, Dec. 16 | Time: 9:30 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

There are bigger matches in the Bundesliga this weekend (Bayern Munich and Stuttgart come to mind), but while the stakes in this one aren't as high (though Dortmund could use a win here), there's plenty of value to be had betting the total. Augsburg have been an odd team at home. I don't know what happens in that stadium, but the nets seem to have a gravitational pull that sucks in every shot that's taken.

Augsburg have played seven home matches in league play, and there have been 28 goals scored in them despite an xG (expected goals) total of 18.6. The math says that regression should come eventually, but at some point, the math needs to be stuffed in a locker. I'm stuffing it in a locker this week because Dortmund sit in fifth place right now because they're a mess defensively (their 25.1 xG allowed ranks 13th of 18 teams), and they've been dramatically worse defensively on the road. The Pick: Over 3.5 (+110)

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Date: Sunday, Dec. 17 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: NBC

Liverpool enter the weekend on top of the Premier League, but while I'm not confident that'll be where they finish the season (I'm riding with Arsenal or Manchester City), I'm damn near certain they'll still be there after Sunday. I can't envision a scenario where Liverpool don't win this match. While I laugh off the idea that Manchester United are always "In Crisis" whenever they lose a match or two, there's no denying United are in a bad spot right now.

United have lost three of their last four in all competitions. In their Champions League finale against Bayern Munich, a match in which they had to win to even have a chance of staying in Europe, and against a Bayern team that had already wrapped everything up, United looked lifeless. They look like a team whose dog died. Nobody is having any fun, and nobody wants to be there. If they can't get fired up to keep their European hopes alive, why should I assume a rivalry like this will matter to them? The Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-130)

Lazio vs. Inter

Date: Sunday, Dec. 17 | Time: 2: 45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Lazio enter the weekend in an unfamiliar position: in 10th place in Serie A. Earlier this year, when they were off to a slow start, I blamed it on bad luck and said things should return to normal, but I've changed my mind since. What's happening with Lazio isn't about luck, nor is it about coaching. The simple problem Lazio face is that they're old. Lazio have an average age of 29.1 this season, and only Inter have an older roster, with an average age of 29.8. So why is Lazio too old, but Inter are in first place?

Because the average age of your roster isn't as important as who is playing. Of the 10 Lazio players to play at least 1,000 minutes across all competitions this season, only Matteo Guendouzi (24) is younger than 28. Of the 12 Inter players with at least 1,000 minutes, five are younger than 28, and that includes the core of the team in Lautaro Martinez, Nicolo Barella and Marcus Thuram. Inter have older players filling out the roster, while Lazio are relying on older players. The club just hasn't done a good job of bringing in younger players to buttress its older stars, and it's paying the price for it this year. Lazio just doesn't have the legs, so unless there's a major infusion in January, it's hard to see things changing course any time soon. The Pick: Inter (-140)