Corner Picks, odds, best bets: Napoli without Victor Osimhen, Tottenham without Son Heung-Min face challenges

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend as stars head out to AFCON and the Asian Cup

By Tom Fornelli

Jan 12, 2024 at 1:25 pm ET • 3 min read

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The Africa Cup of Nations and Asian Cup begin this weekend, and they don't only present challenges for managers and clubs in European leagues as they try to make do without some of their best players this month. They also present challenges for us.

As if betting on these matches wasn't challenging enough, now I have to figure out how teams might look without players like Mohamed Salah, Victor Osimhen, and Son Heung-Min.

I've done my best to take the glass-half-full approach to the situation. While the oddsmakers are aware of these absences, for the most part, I don't think the market has adjusted much, if at all.

Two of the matches I've included in the column this week feature teams without a couple of the players I've mentioned. In one, our play isn't affected much by the absence, while in the other, we're looking to take advantage of it. Which is which? Let's get to it.

Napoli vs. Salernitana

Date: Saturday, Jan. 13 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Not having Victor Osimhen for the next few weeks certainly won't help Napoli's position, as the defending Serie A champions enter the weekend in ninth place, five points off the Champions League spots. However, Napoli have already been without Osimhen for a chunk of the season, and their problems run much deeper than that. There are a lot of reasons why Napoli have fallen off, but the ultimate culprit, in my eyes, is the lack of defense.

Last season, Napoli dazzled with its attack, but everything was built on a platform of its defense. The attack has fizzled a bit this year, but Napoli are scoring enough goals to win. The problem is, they're allowing far too many goals, often to sides that shouldn't pose much of a threat. Napoli have kept only five clean sheets in Serie A play this season, including only once in their last eight matches while allowing an average of 1.41 xG per match in that run. The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-110)

Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Date: Sunday, Jan. 14 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

It's a rare occasion when we find Manchester United underestimated on the market. Considering the problems United have had this season, I understand why it would be the case, but we must consider that United have been much stronger at home playing at Old Trafford than away from it. While the results haven't been great, they're slightly misleading. United have a goal differential of -3 in 10 home matches, but using xG, it should be +2.2. That's a significant difference. The last time United were at home, they stormed back from a 2-0 deficit to beat Aston Villa 3-2 and perhaps kick start the regression.

Then there's Tottenham, without their best player in, Son Heung-Min. Spurs have a goal differential of +6 in 10 road matches but an xG differential of -1.4. While they haven't won any road matches they "should've" lost, they were outscored on xG in all three of their road draws against Manchester City, Arsenal and Brentford. Can they keep that "luck" alive without Son? I'm skeptical. The Pick: Manchester United (+120)

AC Milan vs. Roma

Date: Sunday, Jan. 14 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Napoli aren't the only Serie A team in distress right now. When Fiorentina and Bologna are in the top five, two teams have been supplanted, and Roma are the second. Jose Mourinho has picked up more red cards than points lately, and Roma's road form has been especially bad. Roma may have an xG differential of +1.3 in nine road matches, but two victories against Sassuolo and Cagliari heavily skew it. They've lost three straight away matches entering this one, including a Coppa Italia quarterfinal against Lazio (which wasn't really a road match) on Wednesday. Roma have scored only three goals in their last nine road matches across all competitions.

Now, they head to San Siro to face a Milan team that has been far from dominant but has recovered nicely from a lull in late October through early November. Like Roma, Milan lost their Coppa Italia quarterfinal on Wednesday, but they had been unbeaten in their previous five matches, including four wins. The Pick: AC Milan (+112)