Corner Picks, best soccer bets, odds, predictions: Juventus host AC Milan ahead of a Sunday North London Derby

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Apr 26, 2024 at 1:03 pm ET • 4 min read

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I swear I'm not writing this simply because I work for the company that owns the American broadcast rights to the league, but I'd like to take a moment to sing the praises of Serie A. Earlier this week, Inter Milan beat AC Milan 2-1 to clinch the Scudetto and win its 20th Serie A title. The fact the league has been decided with five matches left to play in the season isn't great, but Inter's title means it's five straight years without a repeat champion in Italy, and four different champions over the last five seasons.

How often can we say that about any of Europe's top leagues?

There's a misconception that the parity in Serie A diminishes its quality, but the facts speak for themselves. Serie A has already secured a fifth spot in the new Champions League format, with the potential for six teams to participate. These spots are earned based on a league's performance in UEFA competitions, and Serie A teams have consistently performed well against their European counterparts in recent years.

Meanwhile, in England, no Premier League team remains in a UEFA competition, except for Aston Villa in the Conference League, and it feels like we're counting down the days until Manchester City wins its fourth consecutive league title and sixth in seven seasons. In Germany, the big story is Bayer Leverkusen ending Bayern Munich's run of 11 straight. Real Madrid will soon keep the tradition of it or Barcelona winning La Liga (with the occasional elbow to the face from Atlético Madrid thrown in for good measure) alive, and in France, well, does anybody watch Ligue 1?

Considering how much griping you hear from fans about the lack of parity in the sport these days, I find it odd that so many of those same people criticize Serie A for giving us exactly that. Sure, at the beginning of the season, only four or five teams have a realistic shot at winning the league, but that's nearly as many as the other four major European leagues have combined!

Juventus vs. AC Milan

Date: Saturday, April 27 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Speaking of Serie A, we start this week's picks there. As mentioned, with the league title already decided and both these teams firmly entrenched in Champions League spots for next season, breaking this match down becomes more difficult. The fact both have questions looming around the future of their managers only clouds the picture further. It wouldn't be the first time teams start their offseasons early when they know their boss won't be back next year.

That said, unlike AC Milan, which has been knocked out of Europe and the Coppa Italia, Juventus have something left to play for. They have advanced past Lazio in the Coppa Italia semis and will face Atalanta in the final next month. Meanwhile, AC Milan had to watch its bitter rival Inter celebrate winning the scudetto right in front of them and their fans in their stadium. That can't be great for the psyche. If one of these teams is checked out, I'd bet on it being Milan. But even if they aren't, Juve have been strong at home all season. The Pick: Juventus (+107)

Atlético Madrid vs. Athletic Club

Date: Saturday, April 27 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

There's a lot on the line here. As we enter the weekend, Atletico Madrid sit in fourth place, three points ahead of Athletic Club. Madrid can put a vice grip on the final Champions League spot. If Athletic Club wins, the two are tied in the standings, but Athletic have the better goal differential and moves into fourth.

If I were to bet on it -- and I am literally doing just that -- I'd go with Madrid grabbing ahold of it. Athletic Club are having an excellent season, but most of their success has come at home, where they've picked up 38 points in 17 matches with an expected goal (xG) differential of +15.6. Away from home, Athletic have 20 points in 15 matches and an xG differential of -1.0. The only La Liga team to pick up more points at home this season than Atletico Madrid (43) is Real Madrid (44). They're very tough to beat at the Metropolitano. The Pick: Atlético Madrid (-105)

Tottenham vs. Arsenal

Date: Sunday, April 28 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | Watch: USA

The North London Derby is always a massive match, but this meeting has added drama. Arsenal have to keep winning to keep their Premier League title hopes alive. At the same time, Tottenham must do the same if they want to overtake Aston Villa for the Premier League's final Champions League spot. A loss, or even a draw, for either one of these teams could put a likely end to their respective pursuits.

So it's too bad I have no idea who will win! Let me amend that: I'm pretty sure Arsenal will win, but not as often as the odds suggest. I'm far more confident in the over, as is usually the case when it comes to a Tottenham match. Tottenham's Premier League matches have averaged 3.56 goals this season, and Arsenal leads the league in goals scored with 82, including five earlier this week against Chelsea. Both teams like to score and have all the motivation to keep scoring (their dreams could come down to goal differential). The Pick: Over 3.5 (+125)