Corner Picks, best soccer bets, odds, predictions: Inter look to bounce back against Napoli, Tottenham are fun

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 15, 2024 at 1:47 pm ET • 4 min read

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It feels like Italian teams had a rough week in Europe. The biggest blows to Serie A were seeing both Inter Milan and Napoli, the league's lone remaining teams in the Champions League, knocked out of the competition. Napoli were beaten by a Barcelona team that was simply better than them over the course of two legs. Inter's loss felt more regrettable. They scored early against Atlético Madrid to take a 2-0 lead on aggregate, only to blow the lead and lose in penalties. It did not feel like a fitting end to the Champions League for one of the best teams in Europe, but competition isn't always fair.

Meanwhile, in the Europa League, Serie A had three teams move to the round of eight, but unfortunately, two of them -- AC Milan and Roma -- will face each other in the quarterfinals. That means Italy can only get two teams into the semis at best. I won't pretend to know how the coefficients work when determining which leagues will receive more spots in the expanded Champions League (I don't even know the new Champions League format yet!), but while getting three teams into the quarters can't hurt, having two play one another there has to hinder the number a bit.

Whatever the case, Serie A can take solace in the fact that its week in Europe wasn't nearly as bad as mine. Let's just say I'm happy to get back into league play this weekend. If you want to understand why, simply scan Corner Picks' record on the season below, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Or don't! I'm OK with that, too!

Monza vs. Cagliari

Date: Saturday, March 16 | Time: 10 a.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

We took Cagliari in last weekend's edition of Corner Picks in a match that was practically a must-have for the team if it wanted to get out of the relegation battle. Cagliari came through and got all three points, but while I still expect them to survive another season in Serie A, the primary reason they'll have trouble establishing safety until the end of the season is their road form. In short, it's awful. Cagliari has won once in 14 matches, and while they allow an xG (expected goals) of 1.17 per home match, that number balloons to 1.71 on the road.

Monza aren't a juggernaut, but they've played well lately, winning three of their last four and losing only once in their last seven Serie A matches. That includes a 4-2 home win over AC Milan last month. Cagliari won their latest away match 1-0 against Empoli, but the xG numbers suggest they were a bit lucky to do so. The luck should run out Saturday. The Pick: Monza (+105)

Fulham vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Date: Saturday, March 16 | Time: 1:30 p.m. ET | Watch: USA

Tottenham matches are fun to watch these days. Well, OK, last week's 4-0 win over Aston Villa wasn't fun to watch as an Aston Villa fan, but my larger point stands. There are goals in Spurs matches and lots of them. Going back to a 3-3 draw with Manchester City in December, there have been an average of 3.63 goals scored in Tottenham's last 16 matches across all competitions. Nine of those 16 matches have seen at least four goals scored.

In short, Spurs never relent in their pursuit to move forward and get shots off, and this leaves them vulnerable to counters regularly. Defensively, Fulham isn't a sieve, but they're not one of the stronger sides in England, either. While Fulham's attack isn't the most potent, it's much stronger at home, where it averages 1.86 goals per match compared to 1.0 away. I expect a high-scoring evening along the Thames. The Pick: Over 3.5 (+125)

Inter Milan vs. Napoli

Date: Sunday, March 17 | Time: 3:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Ah, yes, the two teams knocked out of the Champions League by Spanish sides return to Italy this weekend to square off in a sulk fest. Who can be sadder? In all seriousness, I've been riding Inter all season long in Serie A, and that plan of attack isn't stopping here. As I mentioned, Inter's loss was the more regrettable one because Inter are a team that had a legitimate shot at making a deep run in the competition for the second straight season. While things fell apart in Madrid, Inter remain a very good team.

Napoli aren't. They're not terrible, and as a Napoli fan, I can attest to the improvement in recent weeks, but they're a team in transition. New manager Francesco Calzona is trying to get the best out of his stars while also working in younger players the club will need to rely on next season. Behind all of them is a porous defense likely to be exposed by Inter on multiple occasions. The Pick: Inter (-165)