Corner Picks, best bets, predictions: Barcelona to top Real Madrid, Man City crush Man United, and more

Corner picks looks at a weekend of massive games with El Clasico and the Manchester Derby on tap

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 27, 2023 at 1:50 pm ET • 5 min read

Getty Images

I have a dark confession to make here, in plain view, for the entire world to see. A few years ago, when the idea of the Super League broke, and the soccer-loving world quickly rallied against it, I was on the same side as everybody else. The idea of a league that guaranteed the wealthiest clubs a chance to continue accruing more wealth while effectively pretending to offer that chance to other clubs went against the fabric of the sport.

In theory, anyway. I mean, if we're being honest, that's how the sport already works in its current setup. If you look around Europe, no club that isn't already one of The Elite is becoming so by reaching the Champions League. More often than not, teams are going broke trying to reach the Champions League. The only way to join the club is to be bought by a person or nation-state with more money than sense.

But I digress.

My confession is that while I was against the idea from a philosophical standpoint, as a fan, I was kind of into it. I enjoy the Champions League, but there are plenty of times during the group stages when I'm watching a team from a major European league drag a champion of a smaller league around the pitch, and it isn't entertaining. Sure, there's the first few minutes when you think anything is possible, but before you know it, it's 3-0 Elite European Club. So, the idea of a similar competition with more matchups between teams that can compete with one another had appeal.

For instance, what if there was a new competition where nobody was guaranteed a spot, but it was only between Europe's top five or six leagues? That could be fun!

Then, a funny thing happened with this year's Champions League. Usually, at the halfway point of group play, there are plenty of teams who have essentially been eliminated from the competition. They usually come from the much smaller leagues. But this year, more teams are still alive than ever, and the ones who seem dead in the water are from the bigger leagues. Germany's Union Berlin hasn't managed a point in three matches, and neither has Portugal's Benfica. Outside of Group G, where Manchester City and RB Leipzig have firm control, everything seems somewhat possible.

I doubt it's an emerging trend in the competition, but it's a nice change of pace.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid

Date: Saturday, Oct. 28 | Time: 10:15 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

While we're on the subject of elite European clubs, we've got El Clasico this weekend! Barcelona ran away with La Liga last season thanks primarily to a defense that allowed only 20 goals in 38 matches. This year, after only 10 matches, Barcelona is halfway to allowing that total. However, the 10 goals allowed are somewhat misleading because eight have been away from home. Barca have allowed only two goals in five home matches, and both came in a 3-2 win over Celta Vigo. The other four were clean sheets.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid is atop the league entering the weekend, but they've been much worse away from Madrid. Madrid have outscored opponents 11-5 in six away matches in league play, but the xG tells a different story. That says Madrid have outscored opponents 9.3-7.5. While I don't care much about Madrid outperforming xG in attack (elite clubs with elite players tend to do that), the defensive side of things is a concern and could prove costly on the road against a team like Barcelona. The Pick: Barcelona (+150)

Manchester United vs. Manchester City

Date: Sunday, Oct. 29 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but Manchester United are in crisis! Seriously, this team has been so predictable since Alex Ferguson stepped down. Every time they put together a season where they look competent, they follow it up with a dud. United finished 2nd in 2018 and 6th the following year. They finished 2nd in 2021 and 6th in 2022. Last year, they finished 3rd and now they enter the weekend in 8th with a goal differential of -2 after nine matches. But don't worry! Andre Onana made an incredible penalty save in the final moments of United's 1-0 win over Copenhagen in the Champions League, so everything is fine! We'll ignore that United needed Onana to make the save to beat Copenhagen and that Copenhagen outplayed United on xG (1.9-1.7), or that United's three-match winning streak has come against Brentford (14th in Premier League), Sheffield United (20th) and Copenhagen (a good Danish team, but a Danish team nonetheless).

Yeah, City are going to smoke these guys. City haven't quite been their typical juggernaut selves this season, but that's not too out of the ordinary. We've seen this team get off to slow starts, but what we fail to realize is, they're slowly suffocating the rest of the league. By the time you feel them squeezing the air out of your lungs, it's too late. Defensively, City have remained outstanding. It's simply a matter of the attack finding a groove, and it will eventually. It's too good not to. The Pick: Manchester City (-155)

Aston Villa vs. Luton Town

Date: Sunday, Oct. 29 | Time: 10 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

I haven't included it in the column yet this season, but a principal play has developed with my beloved Aston Villa. The over has been an ATM in Villa matches all season, across all competitions. Villa's nine Premier League matches have averaged 4.0 goals, while their Europa Conference League games have averaged 3.8. Even their lone Carabao Cup match, which they lost, saw three balls put into the back of the net. Ultimately, the Over 2.5 has cashed in 12 of Villa's 15 matches this year, and now they're increasing the total.

I still like it. If the total for every Villa match this season had been 3.5, it still would've cashed nine times. Unai Emery's side is very potent in attack and defensively, while it doesn't give up a lot of chances, the ones it does surrender are high-quality shots. This week, they face a Luton Town side hemorrhaging goals away from home, allowing 11 in four matches on an xG of 10.2. Villa might score four on thei own. The Pick: Over 3.5 (+126)