The new Premier League season is just days away and Enzo Maresca cannot bemoan a lack of options as he begins his tenure as Chelsea head coach. At the time of writing -- a caveat of particular importance where the Blues are concerned -- there are 43 men's first-team players listed on the club website. A reminder that Maresca can only name a squad of 20 on the opening weekend when Manchester City roll into west London.
Much could change between now and Sunday afternoon. In that amount of time the Clearlake consortium could easily propel their permanent signing count in two years of ownership towards the 40 mark, Pedro Neto having become the 35th when he arrived from Wolves in a deal worth a guaranteed $66 million. The great Conor Gallagher knot needs breaking, a player of real value to Mauricio Pochettino last season who found himself a chip to bring Chelsea either striker Samu Omorodion, scorer of eight goals for Alaves last season, or Joao Felix, who struggled to make an impact when on loan at Stamford Bridge in the second half of the 2022-23 season.
The biggest deal of Chelsea's summer might still be in the pipeline. Napoli want Romelu Lukaku and expect to lose Victor Osimhen. A loan deal has been roundly dismissed by the agents of the latter, but still Chelsea hope to bring in what would be a transformative center forward while moving on from a contractual millstone all while staying within the Premier League and UEFA's financial regulations.
No one can mistake the sense of a method to Chelsea's madness. This is a club hell-bent on stockpiling the best young talent, some will move out to feeder clubs such as Strasbourg, others will be sold on a few years into their near-decade contracts, a select few might even enhance their value by excelling for the first team.
The evidence of that working, given the great expense at which so many of those 35 have been recruited, is mixed. The book value of the squad remains high -- much too high in many cases -- but the substandard performances on the pitch mean that there is always a case to be made for further signings, if only to get Chelsea back on path to Champions League riches. How does this all coalesce in Maresca's system, which on the basis of pre-season could oscillate between a 4-2-3-1 with Cole Palmer as the number 10 or a 4-3-3 that will offer more ballast to midfield? Let's try to work that out:
Guaranteed starters
Given the sheer number of young center backs on Chelsea's books it would be unwise to assume that any players are locks for the coming season, though if anyone has a particularly convincing case it might be Levi Colwill, emblematic of the club that might have been had more graduates from the Cobham academy been afforded a pathway to the first team. Next to him at left back, Marc Cucurella has more of the look of a lock, in no small part down to the dwindling standing of Ben Chilwell (more on whom later).
By dint of their price tags, exorbitant even by Chelsea's standards, Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez look to be the midfield keystone. The first year of a union that could run into the 2030s was hardly an unqualified success, and in their worst moments both players looked like they needed Gallagher as a go between for their own skillsets. However, an impressive run of results in the final weeks of the season saw Caicedo look more like the player Arsenal and Liverpool were pursuing before Chelsea secured the signature of an assertive out of possession player who can keep hold of the ball and carry it forward. That should dovetail nicely with Fernandez's line-breaking qualities.
Chelsea's attack last season started and often ended with Cole Palmer. Whether off the right or through the middle, he will remain the leading light even if there really ought to be enough talent around him to ease some of the burden on the 22-year-old, now contracted at Stamford Bridge until his 31st birthday. A sparky run of form during preseason suggests that Christopher Nkunku will establish himself as one of the first names on the team sheet, his second season seemingly bound for RB Leipzig-esque output after injuries spoiled year one in England.
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Places up for grabs
Given the sheer number of players in their squad, more positions should really look like Chelsea's right back depth chart. There they have an incumbent who on his day might be one of the best in his position in the world and, in Malo Gusto, a young player, bought for a relatively reasonable $33 million, who might one day supplant Reece James. If only the latter could stay fit, Maresca's options would be the envy of the Premier League. The same could be said of Wesley Fofana, who has played just 24 league games in the last four seasons and who has nearly five years left to run on a deal worth over $250,000 a week. While he is fit he might just claim the spot next to Colwill. If he does struggle then new signing Tosin Adarabioyo or Axel Disasi could step in.
After suggesting early in the summer that they didn't really want another goalkeeper Chelsea went and got one anyway and Filip Jorgensen will likely get the gloves in the early games of the season. Robert Sanchez seems set to be his number two, Marcus Bettinelli the homegrown backup while Djordje Petrovic is expected to join Strasbourg on loan. Kepa Arrizabalaga remains for now, a reminder that long contracts and exorbitant fees were a problem before Todd Boehly.
Up top, the sheer expense on Neto suggests that space will be found for him and it is possible that the wingers and attacking midfielders laid out in the depth chart below could pivot, perhaps with the former Wolves man and Palmer off the flanks and Nkunku behind the center forward. That spot could even go to the Frenchman ahead of Nicolas Jackson, who got into a lot of good quality shooting positions last season without converting as many as supporters might have liked (his 18.64 non-penalty expected goals were second only to Erling Haaland).
The unwanted ones
The 43 will likely be significantly trimmed as youngsters go on loan and perhaps as Chelsea manage to move out some of those without a role to play. Trevoh Chalobah, an academy graduate who has forced his way into the thinking of the last three permanent managers despite initial skepticism, was not taken on the preseason tour as his employers look to move on from a center back who would represent pure profit in PSR terms. Having slipped behind the promising youngster Marc Guiu in preseason, Armando Broja is also primed to depart, though it would be a bold club who paid the $64 million Chelsea were said to want in January.
The Blues are at least in the fortunate situation that Napoli have appointed the one manager hell bent on always coaching Lukaku. Whether similar suitors would emerge for Chilwell and in particular Raheem Sterling -- remaining squad cost estimated at just below $100 million for the three years left on his contract -- is a matter of debate.
So, what do Chelsea have?
When you have long term transfer amortisation costs of around $200 million in addition to a wage bill of around $250 million, there really is a sporting imperative to maximize revenue, i.e. qualify for the Champions League. Being the fourth best team in England is not beyond Chelsea. That much was apparent when they raced to the finish line last season, losing just one of their last 15 games while beating likely rivals for the months ahead. The personnel that made that deep run may only change slightly under Maresca, though the evidence of preseason suggests that there will need to be an adaptation period as the defensive line drops deeper and pressing triggers are adjusted.
To be in the top-four conversation, this team at full harmony (and that is a significant caveat) looks like it has what it takes. Long term title aspirants is harder to see, particularly when there are so many questions over how they are recruiting. For instance, is injury-plagued Neto (0.43 non-penalty expected goals and expected assists combined last season) that much of an upgrade over Sterling (0.49)? Reuniting Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall with Maresca gives Chelsea a player they can replace Gallagher with, but Gallagher was their best midfielder last season. Jorgensen was a La Liga average goalkeeper at Villarreal last season.
Even after all that spending there seem to be gaps to be plugged -- is Guiu ready to play meaningful minutes behind Jackson at center forward, for instance -- and positions that need either a profound developmental leap or another new signing. Therein lies Chelsea's bind. Their squad is bloated and will likely remain so for most of the 2020s, almost $1.5 billion having delivered a misshapen squad that will do well if it is to achieve the Champions League qualification that was once perennial in west London. A few more signings and maybe they'll have something to build around.
Chelsea depth chart
Position | Starter | Rotation | Emergency backup | Prospects | Others |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GK | Filip Jorgensen | Robert Sanchez | Marcus Bettinelli | Djordje Petrovic, Lucas Bergstrom | Kepa Arrizabalaga |
RB | Malo Gusto | Reece James | Josh Acheampong | ||
RCB | Wesley Fofana | Tosin Adarabioyo | Axel Disasi | Bashir Humphreys | Trevoh Chalobah |
LCB | Levi Colwill | Benoit Badiashile | |||
LB | Marc Cucurella | Ben Chilwell | |||
RCM | Enzo Fernandez | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Lesley Ugochukwu | Carney Chukwuemeka | Conor Gallagher | |
LCM | Moises Caicedo | Romeo Lavia | Cesare Casedei, Renato Veiga | ||
RW | Pedro Neto | Noni Madueke | Angelo Gabriel | ||
CAM | Cole Palmer | Tino Anjorin, Omari Kellyman | |||
LW | Christopher Nkunku | Mykahilo Mudryk | Raheem Sterling | Tyrique George | |
ST | Nicolas Jackson | Marc Guiu, Deivid Washington, David Fofana | Armando Broja, Romelu Lukaku |