It has been one of the Premier League's marquee fixtures over the last quarter of a century but there has perhaps never been a period where the gulf between Chelsea and Arsenal has been so great, particularly in favor of the blue side from west London. Thomas Tuchel's European champions head to the Emirates Stadium fresh from a commanding opening day win over Crystal Palace while Arsenal fans are murmuring with dissatisfaction over the job done by the German's counterpart Mikel Arteta after a 2-0 defeat to Brentford on the opening day of the season.
Still the Gunners were in an even more worrying situation last time they welcomed Chelsea to north London and ended Boxing Day 3-1 victors in outstanding fashion. Can they repeat the trick this time out? Let's examine the key issues ahead of the match:
Lukaku scores or assists
Anyone who remembers the torture the Belgian forward inflicted on Nacho Monreal early in his Everton career might find this hard to believe, but Romelu Lukaku has a remarkably bad record against Arsenal. In 17 meetings with the north London side in all competition he has emerged victorious on only five occasions, losing nine, and he has scored just three goals. Add his five assists to the equation and his individual output is a little more satisfying but hardly the sort to justify the fretting that began in the Gunners fanbase when news broke that the Belgian was likely to be making his second Chelsea debut at the Emirates on Sunday.
Still, there is perhaps an easy explanation for the nature of those nerves. It is not so much Lukaku specifically that Arsenal should be scared of but the varying types of striker Lukaku can be. A continual refrain throughout his career has been the debate as to whether he was the "target man" Ole Gunnar Solskjaer labelled him late in his time at Manchester United. He was never just that -- indeed that game where he wrought such destruction on Monreal came when Roberto Martinez pushed him to a role wide on the right flank that utilized his abilities with the ball at his feet -- but he could certainly do everything that that required. Winning aerial duels, holding the ball with his back to goal and making the right pass at the right moment were all skills he developed further under Antonio Conte at Inter Milan.
"We always had a lot of possession, so we were playing in the opposite half," Lukaku said of his time in Italy. "Most of the time you were back to goal and everything was going through me. I remember having a conversation with Conte about this and he told me if I wasn't good at that I wouldn't play. For me that was an eye-opener.
"Once I mastered that aspect then for me everything became easier. The game would slow down and I could control the game more and give more assists."
With 10 in Serie A last season, 2020-21 was the first in which he reached double figures for assists over the course of a league campaign. Some of those came from the more old fashioned center forward play, waiting for a runner to join him and teeing them up for a shot, but a streak of four in as many games in February and March came from him drifting into space, often in that right channel where he bullied Monreal so many years ago, and bearing down on the center back from there.
Take the image above from Inter Milan's win over Lazio. Marco Parolo is not easily shrugged off any ball but it is all he can manage to merely bounce off Lukaku, who then drops a pass right on the money for Lautaro Martinez.
You can already imagine how the same thing might work in Tuchel's side. Hakim Ziyech or Mason Mount can drift infield from the right, opening up space for Lukaku. On the other flank Timo Werner or Kai Havertz can get in position for a square pass or the rebound from any shot. What do Arsenal have to defend that? Pablo Mari maybe? Eesh. They'd better cut out those transitions.
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Arsenal repeat their attacking failings
Ok, so some predictions will be bolder than others. But how much more is there to say about the way in which Arsenal attack right now? If they're not prepared to add some variety to their build up play why should we add some variety to the analysis.
Mikel Arteta's side have an approach to building their attacks and they will continue to do it ad nauseam, at least until there is a significant personnel change. That may not come this weekend with all of the quartet who missed the defeat to Brentford doubtful for Sunday's game and the process of securing a visa keeping them from registering Martin Odegaard in time.
Bukayo Saka aside this could well be the same attack from that 2-0 defeat which could well mean the exact same tactical approach. The defenders work the ball to Granit Xhaka. He plays it wide to Kieran Tierney, who eventually fires in a cross. Eventually Arsenal get the ball back. They try the same again. Whether it is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang or Gabriel Martinelli (the latter an impressive player in the air despite his limited stature) it does not quite work. Arsenal's pass network from their defeat at the Brentford Community Stadium makes that point clear. Note the width of the lines leading to their No.3 and the size of his dot, both of which reflect involvement in the game. No.26 Folarin Balogun is in there, if you look closely enough.
Look at the bigger picture and there are mitigating factors behind Arteta's one note attack. Arsenal do not have a right back that their manager trusts and have so far been unable to shift the three (Hector Bellerin, Cedric Soares and Ainsley Maitland-Niles) that he doesn't. Odegaard's preference to drift into channels on the right should offer Nicolas Pepe or Saka someone to combine with in a way that the right backs do not while Smith Rowe, the outstanding performer in the Brentford loss, is more at ease drifting into the left channel half spaces than Gabriel Martinelli was. Add in Alexandre Lacazette to help with the build up or Aubameyang to drag the defense out of shape and there might be more avenues for goal.
But few of those changes can be made for Sunday. Instead expect Arsenal to try to win this week the same they did last.
Lokonga makes waves
Though this is unlikely to be a successful endeavour for Arsenal -- though we have said that before and looked rather foolish -- that does not mean that it will be without redeeming factors for Arteta, not least when it comes to new signing Sambi Lokonga. Facing two of the nominees for UEFA's player of the 2020-21 season will be a test for the 21 year old but the early signs of his Premier League career are that he relishes such challenges.
The Belgian midfielder, a dynamic presence who always looks to push play forward and is fearless without the ball, won the admiration of his former club Anderlecht as much for his intangibles as the qualities he showed on a football pitch. It was notable that on his departure from the Belgian giants their sporting director Peter Verbeke was labelling Lokonga "a natural captain and leader on and off the pitch". The harsh truth is those qualities are not apparent in every player in Arteta's squad.
As such look for Lokonga to stand out in the numerous difficult moments that Arsenal will doubtless face at the Emirates Stadium. If the defeat to Brentford is anything to go on he will be showing for the ball when others are not sure they want to take it in the direction of N'Golo Kante and Jorginho anymore. He may not be perfect -- young players in their second Premier League game rarely are -- but expect him to win admirers for both his quality and attitude on a tough afternoon for the Gunners.
