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Two teams will try to end their gold medal droughts in baseball when Team USA Baseball and Japan collide in the gold medal game of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics on Saturday at Yokohama Baseball Stadium. The United States has not won gold in baseball since 2000 in Sydney. Meanwhile Japan has never won gold and has reached the gold medal game only once, in 1996. Baseball has been an Olympic sport since 1992 and was not contested in 2012 or '16. 

First pitch is set for 6 a.m. ET. Japan is the -200 favorite (risk $200 to win $100) in the latest USA vs. Japan odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the United States is the +170 underdog. The over-under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Japan vs. United States picks, make sure you check out the Olympics 2020 predictions and betting advice from CBS Sports baseball guru Matt Snyder.

A former player for Indiana University and a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, Snyder has been a baseball writer with CBS Sports since 2011. 

CBS Sports' longest-tenured baseball expert combines simple logic learned from his baseball-playing days with an extensive background in analytics. He went 26-18 on his MLB picks in the 2020 MLB playoffs, including 8-4 on World Series bets.

Now, Snyder has set his sights on the United States vs. Japan gold medal game and revealed his Olympic baseball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the Olympics baseball odds and betting trends for Japan vs. USA:

  • United States vs. Japan spread: Japan -1.5 (+100)
  • United States vs. Japan over/under: 8.5 runs 
  • United States vs. Japan money line: Japan -200, United States +170 
  • USA: Team USA leads the Olympics in ERA (2.18) 
  • JPN: Japan ranks first in runs per game (5.8)

Why you should back Japan

The Japanese have their pitching lined up much better than the Americans. Japan has played one fewer game than the Americans and its pitchers have been rested since Wednesday -- all of its arms should be available. On Saturday the Japanese will start Masato Morishita, who allowed just two runs on five hits over five innings against Mexico on July 31.

In addition, Hayato Sakamoto brings a hot bat into Saturday's game. The 32-year-old shortstop is batting .389 and leads the team in slugging (.722) and doubles (three). In Japan's 7-6 victory over the Americans on Monday he went 3-for-5 with one run and one RBI.

Why you should back the United States

The Americans have a favorable matchup against Morishita. The weakness in Team USA's lineup is striking out (50 strikeouts in 166 at-bats), but Morishita is not a swing-and-miss pitcher. He has just 77 strikeouts in 95.1 innings in his NPB season and struck out just three against Mexico in his only other start at the Olympics.

In addition, Triston Casas has been on fire for the United States. A first baseman in the Red Sox organization, Casas leads all Olympians in home runs (three) and RBI (eight) and ranks third in slugging (.789). On Monday against Japan, Casas went 2-for-4 with two runs and three RBI.

How to make United States vs. Japan picks

Snyder has broken down this matchup, and one of his picks is over for the run total. But he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the run line. Head to SportsLine now to see his analysis and expert Olympic baseball picks.

So who wins Japan vs. United States in the gold medal game? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which wager in United States vs. Japan has all the value, all from the baseball expert who went 26-18 in the 2020 MLB Playoffs.