Mexico won't get another gold medal, but it wants something to show for its efforts at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics when it faces host Japan in Friday's men's soccer bronze-medal match. Japan had hoped its brick-wall defense would put it in line for gold, but both teams came up just short. Mexico, the gold medalist at the 2012 London Games, lost in a shootout to Brazil after playing to 0-0 stalemate, while Japan also held Spain scoreless for 115 minutes before a stinging 1-0 loss. The teams met in the Tokyo 2020 group stage, and Japan went on to win the group on the strength of a 2-1 victory. Japan lost to South Korea in the bronze-medal match at those 2012 Olympics.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 a.m ET at Saitama Stadium. Mexico is the slight +150 favorite (risk $100 to win $150) on the 90-minute money line in the latest Mexico vs. Japan odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Japan is the +170 underdog, while the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before finalizing any Mexico vs. Japan picks or 2020 Tokyo Olympics predictions, you have to see what consummate soccer insider Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated nearly $19,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.
Now, Green has taken a close look at the Japan vs. Mexico matchup and revealed his Olympics soccer best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the Olympic soccer odds and betting trends for Mexico vs. Japan:
- Mexico vs. Japan spread: Japan -0.5 (+155)
- Mexico vs. Japan over-under: 2.5 goals
- Mexico vs. Japan 90-minute money line: Mexico +150, Japan +170, Draw +220
- Mexico: Sebastian Cordova has seven goals in 13 matches with the team.
- Japan: Ritsu Doan has six goals in 10 appearances for the U-23 team.
Why you should back Mexico
El Tri played a strong match in the group-stage meeting but couldn't catch up after going down by two goals early. A converted penalty in the 12th minute put Japan up 2-0 in the 12th minute, and a second-half Johan Vazquez red card left Mexico playing with 10 men for more than 20 minutes. El Tri dominated possession, but could not find the goals. It also buckled down to hold a powerful Brazil team without a goal for 120 minutes before falling on penalties. Now it faces a Japan team that could be discouraged not to have a chance at gold in its home event.
Both teams have been known for their defense, but the Mexicans have more attacking talent. Midfielder Luis Romo is the engine of the offense, while fellow Mexican Liga MX star Henry Martin is the finisher. Romo had a goal and two assists in a 6-3 win against South Korea in the quarterfinals, while Martin is tied for the team lead with Francisco Cordova after scoring three goals in the five matches. Goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, Martin's teammate with Liga MX contender Club America, is one of the team's leaders and is a steady presence in the net.
Why you should back Japan
The Japanese squad has been organized and efficient, allowing just two goals in the five games. It held Mexico off the score sheet for the first 85 minutes in the July 25 win and did not concede to Spain until late in extra time. The loss to the Spaniards snapped a nine-game unbeaten run that saw Japan yield just three goals while scoring 24. This team is built for defense, with backs Maya Yoshida and Hiroki Sakai joining fierce defensive midfielder Wataru Endo as the three over-age players on the roster. Japan is 7-3-4 in its last three Olympics appearances.
Japan also is seeking revenge against Mexico after El Tri ousted it from London 2012 on its way to the gold medal. It will have the entire nation behind it and knows from last month's victory that it can take the bronze medal if it executes the same way. Japan took a 2-0 lead in the first 12 minutes then sat back to defend. Mexico controlled the ball for 62 percent of the match but had just four shots on target. Takefusa Kubo, a 20-year-old prospect who is trying to earn playing time with Real Madrid, scored the first goal. That was the second of his three in the tournament.
How to make Mexico vs. Japan or 2020 Tokyo Olympics picks
Green has examined the Japan vs. Mexico match from every angle and has revealed a pair of best bets. He's only sharing those picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Japan vs. Mexico in the 2020 Olympics men's soccer bronze-medal match? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets, all from the European soccer expert who has generated nearly $19,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.
