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France looks to move a step closer to an elusive gold medal in men's basketball when it meets Germany at Accor Arena on Thursday in the semifinals of the 2024 Paris Olympics. The French are two wins away from their first gold medal after having earned silver three times in their first 10 appearances in the Summer Games, including the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. France will enter with an added incentive as it looks to avenge its lone loss in the Paris Games, an 85-71 setback against Germany during group play. The French knocked off Canada in the quarterfinals, while the Germans followed a 3-0 run through the group stage with a 76-63 triumph over Greece. 

Tipoff is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET. The Germans are 6-point favorites in the latest Germany vs. France odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 156. Before making any France vs. Germany picks or 2024 Paris Olympics men's basketball predictions, you need to see what SportsLine writer Matt Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He went 231-161 for a profit of $1,237 on his NBA picks last season and has returned $4,452 over the past three NBA campaigns. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Severance is up $887. Anyone following his basketball picks has seen huge returns.

Now, Severance has broken down Germany vs. France from every angle and just revealed his picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the lines and trends for France vs. Germany:

  • Germany vs. France spread: Germany -6
  • Germany vs. France over/under: 156 points  
  • Germany vs. France money line: Germany -245, France +195
  • GER: The Germans shot 46.2% from 3-point range in their first meeting with France
  • FRA: The French had four players reach double figures in points in two of their four games
  • Germany vs. France picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Germany can cover

The Germans won each of their first four contests by double digits, defeating their opponents by an average of 15 points. Forward Franz Wagner of the NBA's Orlando Magic is the team's leading scorer at 20.8 points per game. The 22-year-old had his best offensive performance of the Paris Games in the victory against France, scoring 26 points while pulling down five rebounds.

Brooklyn Nets guard Dennis Schroder also recorded 26 points versus the French and fell one assist shy of posting his second double-double of these Olympics. The 30-year-old, who is averaging 18 points, scored 13 and dished out 12 assists in Germany's 97-77 triumph over Japan in its group-stage opener. Seven different players have scored in double figures for the host nation thus far, with Wagner and Schroder accomplishing the feat in every game and forward Isaac Bonga, who played for three different NBA teams from 2018-22, doing it twice. See which team to pick here.

Why France can cover

Victor Wembanyama was the offensive star for France in the group stage, leading the team in scoring in each game and falling one rebound shy of posting three double-doubles. The 20-year-old center from the San Antonio Spurs, who was the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year, scored 14 points and added 12 boards in the loss to Germany. Wembanyama pulled down 12 rebounds again in the quarterfinal win and scored only seven points, but several of his teammates were happy to pick up the slack.

Forward Guerschon Yabusele scored a team-high 22 points and grabbed five rebounds, while forward Isaia Cordinier added 20 points and three steals. The 28-year-old Yabusele, who spent two seasons with the Boston Celtics after being selected with the 16th overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, is one of seven returning players from France's 2020 silver medal-winning team. The double-digit performance was the second of the Paris Games by the 27-year-old Cordinier, who scored 10 points in the loss to Germany. See which team to pick here.

How to make Germany vs. France picks

Severance has analyzed France vs. Germany from every angle, and he's leaning Under on the point total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's sharing what it is, and which side to back, only at SportsLine.

So who wins Germany vs. France in the semifinals of the 2024 Paris Olympics, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the France vs. Germany spread to jump on, all from the expert who's up $4,452 over the past three NBA seasons, and find out.