The United States will begin its quest for a fifth straight men's basketball gold medal at the 2024 Olympics in Paris on Sunday. The Americans are the overwhelming favorite to win gold, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. The top international teams are not afraid of a U.S. team that didn't exactly blow away the competition during the exhibition schedule.
However it shakes out, this figures to be a heck of a fun tournament. We've covered it from every preview angle imaginable (Check out our top 30 Olympic player rankings and the four biggest USA wild cards). In a similar speculative spirit, below are a few tournament predictions, including the eight quarterfinalists and the gold medal matchup.
Jrue Holiday, Anthony Edwards start for USA
Steve Kerr hasn't revealed his full startling lineup ahead of Sunday's matchup with Serbia. We know that LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid will be in there, with the second two slots seemingly between Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker, all of whom went back and forth between the starting lineups and reserve units during the exhibition schedule.
Three breakout players will be ...
- Andrew Nembhard, Canada: If you watched the Pacers in the playoffs, you know that Nembhard, who just got a three-year contract for $59 million, has already broken out. But a lot of Olympic viewers aren't tuning into Pacer games, and Nembhard is primed for a couple of "who the hell is this guy?" performances.
- Dyson Daniels, Australia: Daniels has gone from an end-of-the-bench guy to a crucial cog for the Aussies. In Australia's friendly win over France, he finished with 14 points, five assists and five steals while converting the game-winning reverse layup. He's a top-shelf defender and a timely cutter, and the shorter 3-point line potentially assigns him a greater threat rating than he commands in the NBA. If Australia is able to medal, Daniels will be a big part of the success.
- Nikola Jovic, Serbia: Not to be confused with Nikola Jokic, Jovic isn't a three-time MVP or an NBA champion like his Serbian teammate, but he's a young player on the rise for the Miami Heat. The 27th pick in 2022, Jovic is 6-foot-10 with a smooth game. He can really shoot it, hitting 40% of his 3s for Miami this season on better than three attempts per game. He's admitted he's not in the best shape after missing time with an ankle injury that threatened to keep him out of the Olympics entirely, but Jovic has made it back and will come off the bench for Serbia in its opener against the United States. Don't be surprised if he pops in these Olympics for a Serbian team capable of a deep run.
Steph Curry makes 25 3-pointers
If the Americans make the gold medal game, Curry will get six games in Paris. That's an average of four 3-pointers per game, which is a lot in the shorter FIBA game. Still, the Americans project to shoot fewer 3-pointers than their opponents (they were out-attempted 43-17 by Germany in the final friendly), so Curry is the best shot to bridge that gap by being ultra aggressive from deep.
Wemby leads in total points, blocks
As you'll see below, I have the United States and France playing for the gold, so players from both sides will have the same number of games (six) to fill their ledgers. French phenom Victor Wembanyama will out-score LeBron James in total, and he will edge Anthony Davis in blocks on account of presumably playing more minutes and, well, being the best shot blocker in the world.
Lakers lead Team USA
As they did throughout the exhibition schedule, LeBron James will lead the Americans in scoring and assists, while Anthony Davis will lead in rebounds and blocks. They are the most important players on this team, and given the high correlation between having multiple Team USA players (let alone the two best players) and winning in the NBA, it begs the question: Why aren't the Lakers better?
Nikola Jokic won't average triple-double
Jokic will certainly dominate, but the shorter game (10-minute quarters), combined with the possibility that Serbia could have a couple of easy wins over Puerto Rico and South Sudan in the group stage (where the three-time MVP perhaps wouldn't have to play as many minutes), makes the triple-double counting stats unlikely.
Bogdan Bogdanovic leads in 3s per game
Bogdan Bogdanovic is a gunner of the most flammable order, and he'll have no shortage of chances to let it fly as Serbia's second-best player. He won't make more total 3s than Curry, who will play more games with the Americans likely to make it to the gold medal game, but on a per-game basis, nobody will make more 3s in this tournament than Bogey.
Dillon Brooks shines for Canada
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the superstar, and after that, Jamal Murray would be the logical choice as his scoring wingman. But I think Brooks ends up scoring more than anyone other than SGA. He has no shot conscience, for better or worse, and has consistently thrived on the FIBA stage with his me-against-the-world mentality. Big tournament for Brooks.
The eight quarterfinalists will be ...
- From Group A: Australia, Canada, Spain
- From Group B: France, Germany, Japan
- From Group C: USA, Serbia
Why are there three teams coming from Groups A and B and just two from Group C? Because in addition to the top two teams from each group, the two best third-place teams also advance to the quarterfinals. It isn't likely that Japan or Brazil will beat Germany or France, but with the tiebreaker being total point differential, they'll have an easier time keeping those games close than Puerto Rico or South Sudan will vs. the United States and Serbia in Group C. Same goes for Spain against Canada and Australia.
My prediction is Puerto Rico, Spain and Japan all end up with one win in their respective groups, with Spain and Japan keeping their losses closer than Puerto Rico.
It's worth noting that Greece has a legitimate shot to beat Spain to pave a path out of Group A (Canada and Australia will get the top two bids). Spain is plenty formidable with the big-man combo of Santi Aldama (Memphis Grizzlies) and Willy Hernangomez and five other current or former NBA players, but this isn't the Spain of old. The Gasol brothers are gone. No more wunderkind Ricky Rubio. Giannis could be enough to carry the Greek team, which was good enough to eliminate Luka Doncic's Slovenia en route to qualifying for Paris, into the quarters.
As for Puerto Rico, who I think will beat South Sudan for its one Group C win, I wouldn't rule out a scenario in which they play the U.S. or Serbia closer than you think and end up edging Japan, who will beat Brazil in Group B, on point differential. If you haven't watched a lot, or any, of Jose Alvarado, you're in for a real treat when he fires up that engine of his. If that little dude led Puerto Rico into the quarters, I wouldn't be terribly surprised. But I wouldn't bet on it, either.
USA defeats France for gold
After the group phase is concluded, the two teams with the best records will be placed on opposite sides of the knockout bracket. France only has one team, Germany, to worry about in its group, and I think Wembanyama and company will get past the Germans to finish undefeated. The Americans will do the same, defeating Serbia, South Sudan, and Puerto Rico.
Meanwhile, Group A, which consists of Australia, Spain, Greece and Canada, is by far the most evenly weighted, making it the least likely to deliver an undefeated team.
Add it up, and the United States and France will come out of the group phase as the two highest ranked teams, slotting them on opposite sides of the bracket, and thus putting them on a collision course for the gold medal game on Sunday, Aug. 10th.
Playing on home soil, France will make things tough on the Americans. The energy will be electric. Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert will present a major size dilemma and force the Americans into shooting more 3-pointers than they're probably built to support, and if those 3s aren't going down, watch out. Buy ultimately, the U.S. just has too much talent and will find a way to prevail down the stretch.
Looking for more NBA coverage? John Gonzalez, Bill Reiter, Ashley Nicole Moss and special guests dive deep into the league's biggest storylines daily on the Beyond the Arc podcast.
