Today's Top Free Expert Picks
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Matt Severance#1+1031(76%)19-6-7 in Last 32 NHL ATS PicksPicked: Mar 23 @ 4:13pmI will say that recent trends indicate we might bet backup Joonas Korpisalo in net for Boston on Tuesday, but I'm not sure it matters as the Leafs are in full Pacers/Wizards/Jazz tank mode. What a shockingly bad season. Lot of changes up yonder coming. The B's have to get the two points as they chase a playoff spot and should still win even with Korpisalo. Maybe they hold off one more game and go with Jeremy Swayman, who has been dominant on home ice. The B's do play again Wednesday and since Swayman's road splits aren't great, I'd sure start him Tuesday and Korpy on Wednesday in Buffalo when the B's probably lose anyways. -
Todd Fuhrman#3+495(78%)7-2-2 in Last 11 NHL O/U PicksPicked: Mar 23 @ 7:55pmAnalysis
Projected Total 5.5 (Under -115) Expected starting goalies: Dan Vladar (PHI) vs Jet Greaves (CBJ); if we get Elvis for CBJ my projected total moves to 5.5 (Over -120) Both of these teams have taken to leaning on their defensive structure in a quest to make the postseason and currently grade out as top 5 teams in expected goals against the last 5. With so much at stake I expect a tight game throughout and both sides struggling to sustain offensive pressure for a full 60. -
Matt Severance#1+1031(76%)19-6-7 in Last 32 NHL ATS PicksPicked: Mar 23 @ 8:03pmAnalysis
We probably get backup David Rittich on Tuesday for the Isles, but that should be fine as he's 11-3-1 with a 2.48 GAA on home ice. Better numbers than No. 1 Ilya Sorokin. We are at the point of the season where certain teams just have to get two points and this is such a game for the East playoff-hopeful Islanders. Matthew Schaefer is one goal shy of tying the single-season NHL rookie record for a blueliner. Chicago is playing out the string. The Hawks haven't scored more than three goals in 10 straight. -
Jeff Hochman#2+528(61%)22-14 in Last 36 NHL PicksPicked: Mar 23 @ 6:29pmAnalysis
The LA Kings are entering a grueling stretch, playing their third game in four days and fourth in six. After an overtime battle in Utah, they now head to Canada to face a Calgary team that has consistently proven difficult to beat. The Flames have claimed victory in seven of the last ten meetings, including a 2-0 loss on the road last month. Over the past three years, Calgary has thrived in the final month of the season against Pacific Division opponents, posting an 11–3–4 record. The Flames embrace the “spoiler” role and have an edge in goal—ranking 14th in Goals Saved Above Expected (-0.11), while the Kings sit 24th (-7.89). Los Angeles leads the NHL with 17 overtime losses. I like the home team. -
Matt Severance+792.5(62%)37-23 in Last 60 NHL ML PicksPicked: Mar 24 @ 3:07pmAnalysis
The Oilers can't start Connor Ingram in net every single game, so they are going with Tristan Jarry tonight and he's the fade reason. The former Penguin gave up seven in his last start on March 12 and has a brutal 4.17 GAA overall since joining the Oilers in trade from Pittsburgh. The Edmonton offense clearly misses Leon Draisaitl having dropped two straight and totaling two goals. The Mammoth haven't won in four tries in this series since moving to Utah, so they are due. Edmonton is 2-for-16 on the power play over the past five, while Utah's PK 15-for-17 over the last five. -
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NHL Sports Betting Terms:
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With regular action most days from the start of the season in the fall until the Stanley Cup final in June, NHL betting provides the opportunity to make predictions on the outcomes of hockey games for a majority of the year. Here are terms you should know to familiarize yourself with NHL betting:
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Lines
The term “lines” refers to odds for bettable outcomes in NHL games, including money lines, puck lines (which are known as spreads in other sports) and totals. When making money line bets, the only aspect of the outcome that decides whether the bet is successful is who wins the game, no matter the final score. The favored team returns less potential profit in the event of a win than the underdog, with the odds determined by the sportsbook based upon the likelihood of each team winning. A negative number for a money line represents the size of the wager needed to win $100, while a positive number represents profit potential on a $100 bet. For example, a -150 favorite would require a $150 bet to have the opportunity to win $100, while a +150 underdog would pay $150 in profit on a successful $100 wager. Puck lines are based on scoring margin, with the favored team typically being -1.5 and the underdog +1.5. Betting on the favored team means they would need to win the game by at least two goals, while a bet on the underdog pays out if they win the game by any margin or lose by one goal. With one goal being the most common scoring differential in the NHL, the payouts tend to be higher when betting on the favorite with a -1.5 puck line, offering bettors the opportunity to pursue higher profit potential than the money line while backing a favorite.
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Totals
Wagering on totals involves taking a position on the number of goals scored in a game or a portion of the game, such as the first period. When betting the total, bettors must decide whether the total amount of goals scored by both teams for the game or segment of the game will be over (more) or under (less) than the line listed by sportsbooks. The payouts related to each side will also be listed with the total. For example, a total of 6.5 goals with -120 on the Over and +100 on the Under would return $100 in profit for a $120 bet on Over 6.5 if there are seven or more goals scored in the game by both teams combined. If there are six or fewer goals scored, a $100 bet would return $100 in profit.
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Props
Bettors can wager on other more specific outcomes in NHL games besides the standard markets above. These proposition bets (also known as props) can include player props, such as the number of goals or assists a certain player accumulates; team props, such as whether one team will go over its own goal total set by the sportsbook; or game props, such as whether a game will go into overtime. Player props are a popular way to bet on NHL games and are a core part of same-game parlay bets. Players have lines generated by sportsbooks that are tied to statistical outcomes in their control, and bettors can take positions on whether a player goes over or under those totals. This could involve points, assists, saves and shots on goal, for example. Bettors can also wager on players to score a goal at any time in the game or to lead the game in a category like points. Team props include team totals, which isolates each team for totals betting rather than combining them for the standard totals market. Bettors will only be invested in, for example, whether the home team in a matchup scores more or fewer than 3.5 goals rather than whether both teams combine for more or fewer than 6.5 goals. Team props include betting on team totals, which in effect splits the game total into a unique number for each team correlated with the spread and allows bettors to take positions on only one team. Some markets can also involve both teams or neither team scoring above a certain points threshold. Game props involve other outcomes outside of specific players, such as which team scores first or whether one team will come from behind to win the game. Bettors can also try to predict the exact final score of the game for higher potential profit than betting on the puck line or total.
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Live Betting
Bettors can also get involved in certain betting markets after an NHL game starts via live betting, where sportsbooks will adjust the odds for standard and select prop markets to reflect the course of the game in real time. Interested bettors are able to assess the flow of the game and account for key injuries or other factors when deciding whether to live bet against the sportsbooks’ real-time odds. Hedging is also a key strategy for some live bettors, which allows the opportunity to make a second bet opposite a position taken before the game started at a better number. For example, if a pregame underdog bet at +1.5 takes an early lead and becomes the -1.5 favorite on the puck line, taking the other team at +1.5 would guarantee that one of the two bets would hit while providing the opportunity to win both if either team loses by just one goal.
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Futures Betting
Futures betting involves betting into markets based around outcomes that resolve further in the future than a single game. Examples include betting on who will win the Stanley Cup, the Hart Trophy for regular season MVP or other events involving more than a single game. Another component of futures betting is win totals, where each team will have a total number of wins listed by the sportsbooks and bettors can take positions on those teams to win more (Over) or fewer (Under) games. A win total of 50.5 would pay to the Under if the team wins 50 or fewer games and to the Over if the team wins 51 or more games. League awards are also considered futures betting, with bettors able to predict the winners of the Hart, Norris and Vezina Trophies as well as other awards. These awards may only be available in certain markets where allowed by state regulations. Another way to back particular players is to bet on them to lead the league in a particular category such as goals scored.