This is as bad as it can get -- at least I hope it is rock bottom.
My picks have been horrendous the past two weeks. I went 5-11 this past week in my sports betting against the spread to drop my season mark to 56-64-3. The last month has been brutally bad. I was 9-7 straight up to raise that mark to 68-55-0, so that's not awful.
As for the ATS picks, October just kicked my butt. So let's put that in the rear-view mirror and turn this thing around.
There are a lot of interesting games this week, big games, but there are also several quarterback injuries that bear watching. I took that into account with my picks as best I could but, then again, does it really matter the way I am going?
It does now.
It's November -- surge time.
As Dak Prescott likes to bark out: Here we go.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the latest Caesars promo to get in the game.
Houston Texans at New York Jets (-2)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Jets have lost two straight since making the trade for Davante Adams and five overall, so they need to get it going. The division is over, but they can still get a playoff berth. But only if they get the offense going. They will do it in this one as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to turn it around. The Texans have offensive line issues and now they are without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
Pick: Jets 31, Texans 23
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cowboys are playing consecutive road games after getting handled by the 49ers, while the Falcons are back at home after beating Tampa Bay. Both teams have defensive issues, which will show up in this game. Look for both offenses to hit some big plays as the Falcons win a tight one.
Pick: Falcons 33, Cowboys 32
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is surprisingly one of the better games of the week. The Broncos are 5-3, thanks to the defense. But Bo Nix is improving each week. The Ravens can score on anybody, so that's a challenge for the Denver defense. I think Lamar Jackson and the offense get it going again and the defense plays better than it has the past few games.
Pick: Ravens 27, Broncos 17
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Dolphins are playing for their season here after losing last week to Arizona in the return of Tua Tagovailoa. The Bills are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over the Titans and Seahawks. They will continue their dominance of the Dolphins as Josh Allen owns them. He will have another big day.
Pick: Bills 32, Dolphins 23
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model is picking the Bills to cover as part of its five-game parlay made up of the strongest spread picks of the week. To check out the other legs of the parlay, click here.
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the dog game of the week as both teams have three victories between them. Injuries have crippled both teams. The starting quarterbacks for both teams are up in the air, but it could be Derek Carr back for the Saints. It doesn't matter. They are the better team, no matter who plays quarterback. Carolina is bad.
Pick: Saints 23, Panthers 13
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
These two are in desperate need of a victory. The Bengals looked awful in a home loss to the Eagles last week. They will rebound here. The Raiders are too limited offensively to keep up. It's Joe Burrow vs. Gardner Minshew. That's a mismatch.
Pick: Bengals 30, Raiders 20
Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Browns showed life last week in beating the Ravens with Jameis Winston in as the starter for Deshaun Watson. The Chargers have played outstanding defense this season, which will challenge Winston. The Chargers will find a way to limit Winston and Justin Herbert will get the victory on the road.
Pick: Chargers 21, Browns 20
Washington Commanders (-3.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This is the second meeting between these two with Washington winning the first meeting 21-18 in the second week of the season. Since then, the Commanders have surged, while the Giants have gone the other way. The Commanders defense is making big strides and Jayden Daniels will be another week removed from the rib injury, which will help the offense. Commanders take it.
Pick: Commanders 30, Giants 17
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New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
These two both have quarterback injuries to watch. New England rookie Drake Maye suffered a concussion last week, while Will Levis is still bothered by a shoulder issue. The Titans have lost three straight, while the Patriots beat the Jets last week. But look for the Titans to rebound in this one -- no matter if it's Levis or Mason Rudolph.
Pick: Titans 21, Patriots 16
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bears are out on the road for a second straight week after losing on a Hail Mary to the Commanders last week. It will be tough to get back up against a rising Cardinals team. Kyler Murray is playing well, so look for that to carry over. The Bears will show the impact of last week's loss as they lose two straight.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Bears 17
Bonus: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, thinks the Bears will cover against the Cardinals. Check out the rest of the games over at SportsLine.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars are reeling, while the Eagles are suddenly playing well. The Philadelphia offense should have a field day against a bad Jacksonville defense. The Jacksonville offense won't be able to keep up with its injuries at receiver. This will be ugly. The Eagles are on a roll now.
Pick: Eagles 33, Jaguars 19
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This is an enormous game in the division, but the Packers have big concerns with Jordan Love and his injured groin. He will be a long shot to play, which means it's likely another start for Malik Willis, who is 2-0 this year as a starter. That will mean more of a reliance on the run game for the Packers. The Lions are dynamic on offense, which is why controlling the clock is key against them. But I don't think the Packers will do it well enough without Love, so give me the Lions.
Pick: Lions 29, Packers 23
Bonus: Among Jason La Canfora's best bets of Week 9 is a play in the Lions vs. Packers game. Head on over to SportsLine to see what he's betting in that matchup.
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Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Rams got back Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and the offense came alive last week. The Seattle defense has major issues. Look for a big game from Matthew Stafford and the offense in this one. The Seattle offense will score as well, but won't be able to keep up. It will be a fun one to watch, but the Rams will win it.
Pick: Rams 34, Seahawks 27
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Vikings are home after losing to the Rams on the road, while the Colts are playing a second straight road game. Joe Flacco will take over as the starter for the Colts, which is probably the right thing in the short term. How he handles the Vikings pressure looks will be the key here. I think Jonathan Taylor will keep them in the game, but the Vikings win it with a late score.
Pick: Vikings 28, Colts 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, fubo try for free)
This a tough test for an undermanned Tampa Bay offense on the road against a good Kansas City defense. The Chiefs offense seems to be coming alive, while Tampa Bay's defense has had major issues lately. The Chiefs keep pushing toward an undefeated season.
Pick: Chiefs 29, Bucs 17
