1
/
33
-
2017 win total projections for every NFL team
Football is on the horizon and it means we need to reassess where every single team in the NFL stands ahead of training camp. Fortunately there is a nice little litmus test to gauge these teams: Las Vegas win totals.
We are going to break these win totals down with the added help of projections from SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh. Vegas has calculated a number for each team heading into the season and Oh has taken his numbers and created a projection against that number to help you see what teams have value either over or under the number.
It also gives us a good idea of which teams might be slated to overperform or underperform in general. Let's look at all 32 NFL teams.
Credit: Mike Meredith, CBSSports Graphic -
Arizona Cardinals
Our SportsLine projection: 8.8 wins
Vegas line: 8.0 wins
Outlook: A very disappointing 2016 season sets the Cardinals up nicely as a bounce-back sleeper candidate for the coming year. Carson Palmer played well down the stretch, and there should be some magic left in Larry Fitzgerald's hands. Impact defenders like Haason Reddick and Budda Baker were added in the draft. David Johnson is a legitimate MVP candidate. Like our SportsLine data, I am bullish on Arizona in a big way and consider them a best bet to go Over.
Credit: USATSI -
Atlanta Falcons
Our SportsLine projection: 9.4 wins
Vegas line: 10.0 wins
Outlook: It's hard not to expect a Super Bowl hangover for the Falcons following Atlanta brutally coughing up a 28-3 lead. SportsLine agrees, but not as much as you would think: the data still suggests a nine-win season and another division title for the Falcons. Steve Sarkisian is a capable play caller and should make Matt Ryan's offensive transition easy. Dan Quinn is building an impressive young defense in Atlanta that could break out this year.
Credit: USATSI -
Baltimore Ravens
Our SportsLine projection: 9.2 wins
Vegas line: 9.0 wins
Outlook: Both Vegas and SportsLine are continuing to give John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome the benefit of the doubt despite one season above .500 in the last four years. The bigger concern should be the lack of playmakers for Joe Flacco despite the addition of Jeremy Maclin this offseason. Unless Mike Wallace's speed continues to defy his age and Breshad Perriman delivers on his draft status, this offense is not exceptionally vertical.
Credit: USATSI -
Buffalo Bills
Our SportsLine projection: 7.4 wins
Vegas line: 6.0 wins
Outlook: Surprising love here from SportsLine considering Sean McDermott is a total wild card, even if he is almost certainly an upgrade over Rex Ryan, just by default. LeSean McCoy is superb, but the rest of the offense is built on a lot of hope with Sammy Watkins' health and Zay Jones being a rookie. The defense is a hodgepodge from multiple regimes running multiple schemes and looks like an uphill battle for McDermott and Co.
Credit: USATSI -
Carolina Panthers
Our SportsLine projection: 8.8 wins
Vegas line: 9.0 wins
Outlook: Carolina profiles as a bounce-back team in 2017. Cam Newton should be healthy following offseason shoulder surgery, and he gets two fun new weapons in Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel. The Panthers offensive line could be one of the best in football if Matt Kalil pans out. The linebackers (Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, Shaq Thompson) are the best in football and the defensive line should be much better and deeper this year.
Credit: USATSI -
Chicago Bears
Our SportsLine projection: 4.9 wins
Vegas line: 5.5 wins
Outlook: Like SportsLine, I love the under for the Bears. They spent tons of capital on the quarterback position, and it's not hard to imagine a situation where Mike Glennon starts the season under center and plays well, but the Bears still lose and Mitchell Trubisky ends up starting half the season. John Fox is a borderline lame duck already, and even though Jordan Howard is a stud, there is not much in the way of pass-catching weapons on this roster.
Credit: USATSI -
Cincinnati Bengals
Our SportsLine projection: 9.2 wins
Vegas line: 8.5 wins
Outlook: Big-time bounce-back season and serious Over/Under value from SportsLine here. The Bengals do profile like a team that can improve quickly, assuming that rookie wideout John Ross and former first-round pick Tyler Eifert can stay healthy. Everything in terms of the offense might hinge on offensive linemen Jake Fisher and Cedric Ogbuehi being able to step in and play like capable starters. The defense should remain high quality.
Credit: USATSI -
Cleveland Browns
Our SportsLine projection: 4.6 wins
Vegas line: 4.5 wins
Outlook: Optimism in Cleveland! And why not? The Browns look like a team that is starting to put some interesting stuff together on both sides of the ball. Maybe Brock Osweiler, Cody Kessler or DeShone Kizer surprises in 2017. The defense is at least interesting with Myles Garrett, Jabrill Peppers and a full year of Jamie Collins. But betting on the Browns to cross into "mediocre" is still a risky proposition.
Credit: USATSI -
Dallas Cowboys
Our SportsLine projection: 9.2 wins
Vegas line: 9.5 wins
Outlook: There is a significant amount of public interest baked into the Las Vegas line for the Cowboys, with plenty of people expecting exactly what we saw from Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott as rookies again in 2017. Some regression should be coming, and the schedule will be much more difficult. There is also a lot -- maybe too much -- being asked on defense when it comes to rookies like defensive end Taco Charlton.
Credit: USATSI -
Denver Broncos
Our SportsLine projection: 8.3 wins
Vegas line: 8.5 wins
Outlook: Clearly the computers aren't very optimistic on Paxton Lynch (or Trevor Siemian?), although there are more reasons than just the guy under center to be pessimistic about the Broncos. The defense was falling off last year, particularly against the run, and just lost Wade Phillips. Demaryius Thomas and Emannuel Sanders are above-average receivers, but the running game with C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles is far from a sure thing.
Credit: USATSI -
Detroit Lions
Our SportsLine projection: 6.9 wins
Vegas line: 8.0 wins
Outlook: Major regression alert, Batman. I agree with SportsLine here: the Lions were extremely lucky in a number of different games last year and have the look of a team that could miss the playoffs in 2017. Falling short of seven wins would essentially guarantee that. Matthew Stafford needs to continue developing under Jim Bob Cooter, Jarrad Davis' addition needs to fix the defense and Ameer Abdullah needs to play 16 games for Detroit to beat this number.
Credit: USATSI -
Green Bay Packers
Our SportsLine projection: 10.7 wins
Vegas line: 10.0 wins
Outlook: The Packers have won less than 10 games with the combination of Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers only twice in nine years. The offense should be loaded again with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery all back in the fold and Jamaal Williams added in the draft. If second-round picks Josh Jones and Kevin King deliver early help to the secondary, this is a 12-win team or better.
Credit: USATSI -
Houston Texans
Our SportsLine projection: 8.1 wins
Vegas line: 8.5 wins
Outlook: The reigning two-time AFC South champs got after the draft with gusto, moving up to take Deshaun Watson. But a rookie signal caller in Bill O'Brien's offense apparently does not get SportsLine's simulations excited, because a .500 season could be in the fold here. The return of J.J. Watt from injury and the return of DeAndre Hopkins to playing with a quarterback who's not Brock Osweiler certainly gives the Texans upside to secure the division for a third straight season.
Credit: USATSI -
Indianapolis Colts
Our SportsLine projection: 7.6 wins
Vegas line: 9.0 wins
Outlook: Chris Ballard did work this offseason bringing in a lot of physical defensive players to help out Chuck Pagano's defense, including Johnathan Hankins, John Simon and Jabaal Sheard. Malik Hooker could be special on the back end. It might all come down to Andrew Luck; he has the weapons, and the protection has improved a little over the last year or so, but is his shoulder healthy? The lack of throws from the franchise quarterback as we head toward August should be a bigger concern and a bigger story.
Credit: USATSI -
Jacksonville Jaguars
Our SportsLine projection: 7.4 wins
Vegas line: 6.0 wins
Outlook: Breaking news: the Jaguars might actually live up to the hype this year. Actually, the sub-.500 projection from SportsLine would disappoint, but it would win you money if you take the Over. This defense failing to be a top-10 unit would be a borderline miracle with all the talent on the roster. Blake Bortles is the key. The Jaguars need Leonard Fournette to take the pressure off their quarterback, and they need Bortles to find his 2015 form.
Credit: USATSI -
Kansas City Chiefs
Our SportsLine projection: 9.3 wins
Vegas line: 9.0 wins
Outlook: Despite all the offseason turmoil in Kansas City, the computers still like the Over here, although not by as much as in recent years. Adding Patrick Mahomes as a first-round pick puts a lot of pressure on Alex Smith, but he's been there before. Losing Jeremy Maclin puts a ton of pressure on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and they need Smith to perform. This team is flying under the radar yet again as a candidate to win the AFC West.
Credit: USATSI -
Los Angeles Chargers
Our SportsLine projection: 6.9 wins
Vegas line: 7.5 wins
Outlook: Major disagreement here from me with SportsLine. The Chargers have a franchise quarterback in Philip Rivers and retooled the offensive line this offseason. They are also stacked at the skill positions with young talent like Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon and Mike Williams. The defense could quietly be fantastic, and it should not be a surprise if Joey Bosa is in the late-season discussion for Defensive Player of the Year. Anthony Lynn is a pretty big wild card here.
Credit: USATSI -
Los Angeles Rams
Our SportsLine projection: 5.2 wins
Vegas line: 5.5 wins
Outlook: SportsLine actually pegged the Rams to finish with the No. 1 overall pick in an early simulation this summer. This year will be a major test of Sean McVay's offensive ability; if he turns Jared Goff into a quality quarterback after a horrific rookie year, he'll be an L.A. legend. I can't give up on Todd Gurley yet. Wade Phillips should be a huge reason for a leap forward from a defense that fits his 3-4 scheme well.
Credit: USATSI -
Miami Dolphins
Our SportsLine projection: 7.0 wins
Vegas line: 7.5 wins
Outlook: The Dolphins also project as a contender to fall out of the playoffs after needing a huge homestretch in 2016 and a lot of luck in close games. If Ryan Tannehill takes another step under Adam Gase (and is healthy) and Miami can establish Jay Ajayi as a workhorse back behind a Cowboys-lite offensive line (like they did last year), it would not be surprising to see eight-plus wins.
Credit: USATSI -
Minnesota Vikings
Our SportsLine projection: 8.5 wins
Vegas line: 8.5
Outlook: Vegas and SportsLine are all over the same page here, but seeing Minnesota rise back up in the NFC North would not be a surprise. Sam Bradford played well last year. The offensive line is better by default with the free-agent additions of Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers. Dalvin Cook is not getting enough attention as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year. There is zero reason to expect anything other than excellence from the defense.
Credit: USATSI -
New England Patriots
Our SportsLine projection: 12.3 wins
Vegas line: 12.5 wins
Outlook: Bet on the Patriots at your own peril. This is a historically high Over/Under but Tom Brady is coming off an MVP-worthy season where he engineered the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history and the Patriots still managed to get better on offense, adding Brandin Cooks and Dwayne Allen this offseason. This might be the most stacked Pats team since 2007 and a more deep team overall than that year.
Credit: USATSI -
New Orleans Saints
Our SportsLine projection: 7.9 wins
Vegas line: 8.5 wins
Outlook: As long as Drew Brees is on the roster, there is reason to believe the Saints can be a dangerous team. This year is (again) supposed to be the year where the defense is revamped, and there is some reason to believe with an interesting secondary featuring Marshon Lattimore, Vonn Bell, Kenny Vaccaro and Delvin Breaux. The combination of Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson will be fascinating to watch. The division might just be too tough.
Credit: USATSI -
New York Giants
Our SportsLine projection: 8.1 wins
Vegas line: 9.0 wins
Outlook: A stunning 11-win season has Vegas expectations very high and, like a lot of people, SportsLine does not see the Giants matching the success of last year. Eli Manning has weapons galore now with Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram added, but who is protecting him? The defense was very good last year but also inconsistent. That could catch up with the Giants this year.
Credit: USATSI -
New York Jets
Our SportsLine projection: 4.8 wins
Vegas line: 4.5 wins
Outlook: Everyone praying for Sam Darnold in New York should not get too worked up about SportsLine projecting the Jets to go Over the number, because they are still slotted as the second-worst team in the projections. (Be more worried about the Browns, or Darnold staying in school.) The Jets look like they are trying to be terrible, and they should be exactly that this year.
Credit: USATSI -
Oakland Raiders
Our SportsLine projection: 8.6 wins
Vegas line: 10.0 wins
Outlook: This is a precipitous drop projected by the computers for the Raiders in what might be (but likely won't be) their final year in Oakland. Even with Marshawn Lynch being added to the backfield, the projections show a major regression from 12 wins to less than nine, which could put Oakland in danger of missing the playoffs after handing Derek Carr $125 million this offseason. There is plenty of talent on both sides for this team to succeed again, but 10 wins is optimistic.
Credit: USATSI -
Philadelphia Eagles
Our SportsLine projection: 8.1 wins
Vegas line: 8.5 wins
Outlook: The Eagles did a lot of work surrounding Carson Wentz with skill players this offseason in Alshon Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, LeGarrette Blount, Donnel Pumphrey and Mack Hollins. It isn't the 1999 Rams or anything, but it is an upgrade. The defense is getting little attention, but with Chris Long, Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett on the line, it could be a scary unit. I disagree with SportsLine here, although the schedule is tough.
Credit: USATSI -
Pittsburgh Steelers
Our SportsLine projection: 9.9 wins
Vegas line: 10.5 wins
Outlook: Any time a team is expected to win more than double digit games by Vegas, it is going to be hard for a simulation to hit the over, just because of the randomness of football and the luck built into the game. Such is the case with Pittsburgh, although SportsLine still likes the Steelers to have a successful year, primarily thanks to Ben Roethlisberger being surrounded with a filthy cast of receiving talent in Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Le'Veon Bell.
Credit: USATSI -
San Francisco 49ers
Our SportsLine projection: 6.2 wins
Vegas line: 4.5 wins
Outlook: Major value here from the computer in Kyle Shanahan's first year. Vegas does not think that the 49ers can turn things around by signing Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon. The place to look is the defense, where the 49ers quietly have a pretty stout front seven with Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster and NaVorro Bowman. The secondary is not bad either. This team could be friskier than you think.
Credit: USATSI -
Seattle Seahawks
Our SportsLine projection: 10.1
Vegas line: 10.5
Outlook: Again, double-digit wins is just tough. The Seahawks are expected to be a good football team and should once again have a good defense, especially if Richard Sherman moves past the offseason drama and Earl Thomas is healthy again. The running game could surprise with Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls, and Russell Wilson's diet has made him even more mobile. Seattle projects as a top-tier NFC team, but 10.5 is a lot of wins.
Credit: Getty Images -
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our SportsLine projection: 6.9 wins
Vegas line: 8.5 wins
Outlook: It's a disappointing season projected here for the Buccaneers, and one I wholeheartedly disagree with. Tampa added DeSean Jackson and he is going to make Jameis Winston a viable MVP candidate in 2017. O.J. Howard is gravy with Cameron Brate in place. The offensive line can protect Winston enough and the defensive line should be scary with Noah Spence and Gerald McCoy prepared to wreak some havoc in Mike Smith's second year as defensive coordinator.
Credit: USATSI -
Tennessee Titans
Our SportsLine projection: 8.2 wins
Vegas line: 9.0 wins
Outlook: The second year of Mike Mularkey's tenure comes with major expectations, and the computer does not see the Titans meeting them. It's not hard to think the Titans are getting too much hype, but there are good reasons on offense: the line is loaded, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry are a dangerous combo and Marcus Mariota flashed in a big way last year before getting Corey Davis and Eric Decker this offseason.
Credit: USATSI -
Washington Redskins
Our SportsLine projection: 7.7
Vegas line: 7.5
Outlook: No one gets less respect than the Redskins, but SportsLine sees a little bit of value here on the Over. Washington fired its GM this offseason but did a nice job in adding talent to the roster. Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed are a dangerous trio of pass catchers for Kirk Cousins. Jonathan Allen could be the biggest value pick in the whole draft. This team should be getting more attention in the NFC East.
Credit: USATSI
More Slideshows
Around the Web
Promoted by Taboola