We are at Week 16 of the NFL season and it's a crucial one. Teams are vying for playoff spots and positioning with just three weeks remaining. The Atlanta Falcons are still fighting for the NFC South title and decided to make a bizarre move to start rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. It will be interesting to see how this decision turns out, because a loss at the lowly New York Giants would put a dagger in their playoff hopes.
Best Bets for Week 16
Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-120)
My record on Eagles anytime TD bets this year is pretty pristine. We had a heater midseason on Hurts anytime scores when he was priced low and then got one last week with the obvious A.J. Brown squeaky-wheel game. I'm going back to the well with Hurts here, who at just -120 feels pretty cheap again. The Eagles have shown they're more than willing to let Hurts run the ball by the goal line, even at the expense of Saquon Barkley piling up touchdowns. And with Barkley's MVP case off the table, Philly will keep feeding Hurts (and probably would have anyway). Get some pass interference or a long drive or another tackle inside the five and it's Hurts keeping the ball. This game can clinch the division for Philly so I expect Hurts to be active with his legs and find the end zone. This price varies wildly so make sure and shop around. DraftKings Sportsbook is a good 25 cents cheaper than FanDuel for instance.
Panthers/Cardinals Under 47
Did you hear Kyler Murray's press conference when he got asked about playing in the cold on Sunday?? Kyler quickly pointed out he's played in plenty of cold-weather games before, then asked how cold it would be, found out it was going to be 35 degrees in Charlotte on Sunday and his response was, "shit." These two offenses should in theory be able to move the ball pretty effectively against a pair of questionable defenses. But the cold will factor in and we've also got two offenses that really want to run the ball and don't necessarily take deep shots down the field. A couple of red-zone flubs and we could see this total stay way under what is a big number.
Teaser: Texans +9.5 / Seahawks +9
The goal here is to find two teams that likely won't get blown out playing against two teams that are unlikely to blow someone out. The Texans, who are fighting to win the division and want to prove they belong with the upper echelon teams in the AFC, will be gunning for Kansas City here. The Chiefs have an injured Patrick Mahomes -- even if he practiced in full -- and know they've got a full game to give up in terms of the No. 1 seed. They've won three games all season by double digits and I would be stunned if they blew out the Texans given the explosive potential for Houston's offense. Seattle's dealing with a QB injury as well, but Geno Smith looks good to go and they are also in desperation mode after losing badly to the Packers on Sunday night in Week 15. The Vikings have been a great team all year but they also tend to keep things close and win with good coaching and defense. Seattle's D should keep them in this one and even though the Vikings have run hot the last two weeks and won big, it was against Atlanta and Chicago, two teams with lesser offenses than Seattle.
Lions-Bears over 48
Going against the cold weather narrative in this one. Yeah, Jared Goff and Co. haven't played any -- really just one -- outdoor games this season. And in that game, the total went way under with Detroit controlling the football and dominating with a physical run game and on defense. The problem here is that everyone on their defense is hurt and their bowling ball physical runner, David Montgomery, is injured. Detroit is going to struggle to stop teams the rest of the year and may simply need to just outscore everyone. The Bears defense has been a shell of itself since Chicago fired Matt Eberflus, in a similar fashion to the Jets falling off a cliff defensively after firing Robert Salah. Weird how that works! I wouldn't be opposed to betting this live, either, if Detroit controls the ball early and Chicago struggles in the run game. We've seen Caleb Williams crank things up against the Lions defense in the second half before already once this year and it could happen again easily in this spot.
Ja'Marr Chase 60+ receiving yards / anytime TD (+105)
The incredible contract season for Ja'Marr Chase should continue against a Browns defense that hasn't been the same from a year ago. I like Chase's anytime TD scorer prop but it's -135 and his receiving yards total is pretty steep at 87.5. So instead we're going to take an alternate receiving yards total of just 60 (he's getting that) and parlay it in a correlated fashion with Chase anytime touchdown to give us a plus number of +105. It's essentially a bet on Chase finding the end zone again as he pursues the receiving Triple Crown (he currently leads all three categories with 102 receptions, 1,413 yards and 15 touchdowns). A score and 75 yards or so on Sunday probably puts him in great position to win this -- I don't want to go too high on the yardage just in case the Browns with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in for Jameis Winston, can't keep up and the Bengals end up feeding Chase Brown a ton.
